Ba\_klbyQ_ey[bgkdh]hgZmqgh]hp_gljZ\ui ;BHEH=BY M>D FGH=HE?LGYY>BG:FBD:<B>H<H=HJ:AGHH;J:ABY G:K?E?GBYILBPBEVF?GKDH=HA:IH<?>GBD: <.>. AZoZjh\ e–mail: [email protected] Bevf_gkdbc]hkm^Zjkl\_ggucaZih\_^gbd]FbZkkJhkkby KlZlvyihklmibeZfZjlZ] Ihf_j_mkbe_gbyZgljhih]_ggh]h\ha^_ckl\bygZijbjh^mijb\h^ys_]h\dhg_qghfblh]_ d h[_^g_gbx [bhjZaghh[jZaby klZgh\blky ZdlmZevguf bamq_gb_ hj]ZgbaZpbb dhgdj_lguo kh h[s_kl\ b wdhkbkl_f Z lZd`_ ZgZeba baf_g_gby bo jZaghh[jZaby Ijb wlhf bkihevah\Zgb_ jZaebqguoihdZaZl_e_coZjZdl_jbamxsbolhlbebbghcZki_dl[bhjZaghh[jZabyy\ey_lkyi_j ki_dlb\guff_lh^hfhp_gdbkhklhygbykhh[s_kl\bwdhkbkl_fijbijh\_^_gbbwdheh]bq_kdh]h fhgblhjbg]Z :gZeba ^bgZfbdb \b^h\h]h jZaghh[jZaby gZk_e_gby ilbp ijh\h^beky gZ hkgh\_ mq_lguo ^Zgguoihemq_gguo\khkgh\uokhkgh\h–[_j_ah\uob[_j_ah\uoe_kZoBevf_gkdh]haZih\_^ gbdZ \ l_q_gb_ « ]] Dhebq_kl\_ggu_ mq_lu hkms_kl\eyebkv \ ]g_a^h\hc i_jbh^ fZc«bxgv gZ ihklhygguo fZjrjmlZo ih f_lh^bd_ XK JZ\dbgZ [1] <b^h\h_ jZaghh[jZab_ gZk_e_gbyilbp\dZ`^hff_klhh[blZgbbhp_gb\Zehkvbg^_dkhfR_gghgZ + ′ jZkkqblZgguf ih mkj_^g_gguf ihdZaZl_eyf mq_lZ aZ \_kv ]g_a^h\hc i_jbh^ lZ[e LZdbf h[jZahf bgnhj fZpby ihemq_ggZygZijhly`_gbb e_l fh`_lkem`blvhkgh\hc^he]hkjhqgh]hfhgblhjbg]Z aZijhp_kkZfbijhbkoh^ysbfb\khh[s_kl\Zoe_kguoilbp Ijb ij_^u^ms_f ZgZeba_ fgh]he_lgbo baf_g_gbc iehlghklb gZk_e_gby ilbp \ mdZaZgguo \ur_ f_klhh[blZgbyo >@ hlf_qZeZkv ohly b g_agZqbl_evgZy l_g^_gpby kgb`_gby h[beby \khh[s_kl\ZoilbpL_fg_f_g__km^blvhkms_kl\_gghklbih^h[gh]hijhp_kkZihdZg_ijb oh^blky JZg__gZfb[ueh\ukdZaZghij_^iheh`_gb_qlhihkdhevdmf_jujZaghh[jZabyhljZ`Zxl keh`ghklv b kljmdlmjbjh\Zgghklv khh[s_kl\ lh klZ[bevghklv wlbo ihdZaZl_e_c ij_^iheZ]Z_l bmklhcqb\hklvkhh[s_kl\ilbp>@<lh`_\j_fyh[mklhcqb\hklbwdhkbkl_ffh`ghdhk\_ggh km^blvihmklhcqb\hklbkeZ]Zxsbobokhh[s_kl\ :gZeba ihemq_gguo j_amevlZlh\ ihdZau\Z_l qlh \b^h\h_ jZaghh[jZab_ \ bkke_^h\Zgguo f_klhh[blZgbyo hklZ_lky hlghkbl_evgh klZ[bevguf gZ ijhly`_gbb agZqbl_evgh]h i_jbh^Z \j_f_gb LZd dhwnnbpb_glu \ZjbZpbb bg^_dkZ R_gghgZ jZ\gyxlky \ [_j_ah\hf e_km 4,7 % —\khkgh\h–[_j_ah\hfb\—khkgh\hfG_\ukhdh_\b^h\h_jZaghh[jZab_gZk_ e_gbyilbpb[he__agZqbl_evgucdhwnnbpb_gl\ZjbZpbb\khkgh\uoe_kZogZ\h^blgZfukev qlh \ mkeh\byo aZih\_^gbdZ ih^h[gu_ f_klhh[blZgby ih jy^m ijbqbg y\eyxlky gZbf_g__ hi lbfZevgufb^eyilbp <.>. AZoZjh\ 158 IhdZaZl_eb \b^h\h]h jZaghh[jZaby + ′ bkdhjhklb baf_g_gby \b^h\h]h jZagh h[jZaby G+ ′ GW gZk_e_gby ilbp\e_kZoBevf_gkdh]h aZih\_^gbdZ F_klhh[blZgb_ Khkgh\uce_k =h^ Khkgh\h–[_j_ah\uce_k + ′ [bl G+ ′ GW [bl]h^ 1985 2,35 1986 ;_j_ah\uce_k + ′ [bl G+ ′ GW [bl]h^ + ′ [bl G+ ′ GW [bl]h^ 0 2,72 0 2,46 0 2,37 0,02 2,92 0,20 2,80 0,34 1987 2,49 0,12 2,85 –0,07 2,71 –0,09 1988 2,62 0,13 2,96 0,11 2,73 0,02 1989 2,04 –0,58 2,79 –0,17 2,62 –0,11 1990 2,39 0,35 2,94 0,15 2,64 0,02 1991 2,20 –0,19 2,94 0 2,68 0,04 1992 1,90 –0,30 2,78 –0,16 2,29 –0,39 1993 2,39 0,49 2,56 –0,22 2,46 0,17 1994 2,15 –0,24 2,74 0,18 2,41 –0,05 1995 2,24 0,09 2,67 –0,07 2,61 0,20 1996 2,48 0,24 2,66 –0,01 2,71 0,10 1997 2,36 –0,12 2,94 0,28 2,61 –0,10 1998 2,28 –0,08 2,65 –0,29 2,64 0,03 1999 2,17 –0,11 2,86 0,21 2,66 0,02 2000 2,19 0,02 2,76 –0,10 2,62 –0,04 2001 2,05 –0,14 2,67 –0,09 2,68 0,06 2002 1,78 –0,27 2,65 –0,02 2,49 –0,19 2003 2,35 0,57 2,97 0,32 2,69 0,20 x 2,25 — 2,79 — 2,61 — lim 1,7…2,49 — 2,56—2,97 — 2,2…2,80 — CV 8,9 4,7 4,2 AZdexq_gb_ ;he__ihdZaZl_evghjZkkfhlj_lvijhp_kkf_`^m]h^bqgh]hbaf_g_gby\b^h\h]hjZaghh[jZ aby gZk_e_gby ilbp \ e_kZo Bevf_gkdh]h aZih\_^gbdZ lh _klv G+ ′ GW Baf_g_gby \b^h\h]h jZaghh[jZabykhh[s_kl\ilbp\h\k_of_klhh[blZgbyoijhbkoh^ylkjZagufbZfieblm^Zfbhl ghkbl_evgh k\hbo kj_^gbo agZq_gbc ^ey khkgh\uo e_kh\ — ^ey khkgh\h–[_j_ah\uo — ^ey[_j_ah\uo—DZd\b^ghba]jZnbdh\jbk«\b^h\h_jZaghh[jZab_gZk_e_ gbyilbpgZoh^blky\khklhygbb^bgZfbq_kdh]hjZ\gh\_kbyqlhhljZ`Z_lmklhcqb\hklve_kguo wdhkbkl_faZih\_^gbdZ Fgh]he_lgyy^bgZfbdZ\b^h\h]hjZaghh[jZabygZk_e_gbyilbpBevf_gkdh]haZih\_^gbdZ G+GW[bl]h^ +[bl Jbk=jZnbd^bgZfbdb\b^h\h]hjZaghh[jZabygZk_e_gbyilbp khkgh\uoe_kh\Bevf_gkdh]haZih\_^gbdZ G+GW[bl]h^ +[bl Jbk=jZnbd^bgZfbdb\b^h\h]hjZaghh[jZabygZk_e_gbyilbp khkgh\h–[_j_ah\uoe_kh\Bevf_gkdh]haZih\_^gbdZ 159 <.>. AZoZjh\ 160 G+GW[bl]h^ +[bl Jbk=jZnbd^bgZfbdb\b^h\h]hjZaghh[jZabygZk_e_gbyilbp [_j_ah\uoe_kh\Bevf_gkdh]haZih\_^gbdZ Kibkhdebl_jZlmju 1. JZ\dbgXKDf_lh^bd_mq_lZilbpe_kguoeZg^rZnlh\Ijbjh^ZhqZ]h\h]hde_s_\h]hwgp_nZebl_ gZ:elZ_Gh\hkb[bjkdK—75. 2. AZoZjh\<>Fgh]he_lgyy^bgZfbdZgZk_e_gbyilbp\e_kZoBevf_gkdh]haZih\_^gbdZBkke_^h\Z gbywlZehgguoijbjh^guodhfie_dkh\MjZeZ?dZl_jbg[mj]?dZl_jbg[mj]K—297. 3. AZoZjh\<>;bhjZaghh[jZab_gZk_e_gbyilbpgZa_fguof_klhh[blZgbcX`gh]hMjZeZFbZkkB=A MjHJ:Gk