Специальный доклад по этой теме

Потепление климата – новая
проблема общественного
здоровья приполярного
населения
Climate warming – new problem of
subpolar public health in Russia
Профессор Борис Ревич
Prof. Boris Revich
Аномалии осредненной по территории России
среднегодовой температуры
воздуха за период 1936-2005 гг.
(www.meteorf.ru/klimat05)
T (o C)
2,5
2,0
1,5
2005
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
 = 0.14oC/10 лет
2000
2004
1996
1992
1984
1988
1976
1980
1968
1972
1960
1964
1956
1952
1940
1944
1948
1936
-2,0
T –Yakutsk-1950-1995
-4
1950
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
-10
-11
-12
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
Ожидаемые к середине ХХI века изменения средней годовой
температуры воздуха для основных регионов России
Expected by 2050 Increments of Annual Average Temperatures in
Russian Regions
Регион
Region
Прогноз увеличения
среднегодовой
температуры ºС
Temperature Increase, ºС
Центральный / Central
0.5-1.0
Северо-Западный /North-West
0-1
Север ЕТС/European North
2-3
Арктическое Побережье
/Arctic Coast
2-3
Западная Сибирь/West Siberia
3-4
Якутия/Yakutia
2-3
Дальний Восток/Far East
1-2
Национальный доклад по проблемам изменения климата Минэкономразвития
России, National Report on Climate Change, Ministry of Economic Development, 2003
Изменение климата и здоровье в северной России
– инфекционные заболевания
!!!Геморрагические лихорадки– движение на
север
!! Деградация территорий вечной мерзлоты –
проблемы с инженерными коммуникациями
Сокращение площадей на 12-15%, перемещение
границы на 160-200 км севернее
ОКИ , Якутия, 2001, брюшной тиф
!! Паразитозы – дирофиляриатоз – движение на
север
! Псевдотуберкулез, листериоз
!? Клещевой энцефалит, туляремия
Потепление климатаинфекционные заболевания
Лихорадка Западного Нила –
в 1999 году – вспышки
заболевания среди жителей
Волгоградской
и
Астраханской
областей,
Краснодарского края.
Число случаев ЛЗН
Лихорадка Западного Нила в России в 1999 г.
500
>500
400
300
200
100
0
>5
1997
>35
1998
32
1999
2000
Краснодар
Волгоград
Астрахань
Волгоград (> 500 случаев, 38 смертей);
Астрахань (> 90 случаев, 5 смертей);
Краснодар (> 40 случаев, 3 смерти).
А.Е.Платонов, ЦНИИ эпидемиологии МЗ РФ
15
2001
14
2002
Клещевой энцефалит
 Более раннее начало периода
нападения клещей на людей (СевероЗапад России)
 Рост
заболеваемости
клещевым
энцефалитом - в год заболевает 5-10 тыс.
человек
 Расширение ареала за счет СевероЗападного и Приволжского регионов.
Высокие показатели заболеваемости в
Сибири и на Дальнем Востоке
Ixodes Persulcatus – сдвиг теплового
барьерав Якутии _!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Геморрагические лихорадки
Лихорадка Крым-Конго.
Южные
регионы
России,
летальные исходы
Омская
геморрагическая
лихорадка - Природные очаги в
Западной Сибири и Казахстане.
Тенденция к ее возвращению и
распространению на север.
Особо опасные инфекции
Сибирская язва:
Большое
количество
стационарно
неблагополучных пунктов по сибирской
язве.
Возбудитель сибирской язвы в виде спор
может десятки лет находиться в почве.
В случае потепления
в зонах вечной
мерзлоты могут создаться благоприятные
условия для вегетации бактерий с высоко
вероятным инфицированием восприимчивых
животных и опосредованно заражением людей.
Наводнения на севере России
1998, май Вологодская область Эвакуировано 10 тыс.
г. В. Устюг
человек
1998, май
2001, май
8/06/2006
Ленск, Якутия
172 нас. пункта
В зоне затопления 475
тыс. человек,
Эвакуировано 50 тыс.
человек,
t днем +1 +3 °С
ночь -10 -12 °С, снег
Ленск, Якутия
Эвакуация 23 тыс.
172 нас. пункта
человек,больницы
Таймыр
?
Олекминск, Якутия
T and Public Health:
Arctic and Subarctic cities,
7 - more 100 thous. peoples
13 - more 20 thous.peoples
Urban population -2 2000th
Project: Climate, Air Pollution and
Mortality in Moscow in 2000-2005
• Center of Demography and
Human Ecology of Institute of
Forecasting, Russian Academy of
Science, Moscow
• Environmental Monitoring
• Meteorology Observatory of
Moscow State University
• Environmental Defense (USA)
Variations and Trend of Annual Average
Temperatures in Moscow in 1900-2000
Т, С
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
1
Source: Moscow Environment and Climate Reference Book, 2003, vol.1, 173.
Т, С
10
Annual Average Temperature in Moscow (MSU
Meteo Observatory) in 1954-2001 and ЕСНАМ4
model forecast till 2050 [Sherstukov, 2005]
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
2046
2039
2034
2026
2019
2014
2006
1999
1994
1986
1979
1974
1966
1959
1954
1
Summer vs. winter concentrations of РМ10,
NO2 and O3 in 2000-05, ug/m3
(MosEcoMonitoring data)
Winter
Summer
РМ 10
30,7
33,0
NO2
42,0
35,4
О3
19,3
26,2
Regression Equation of Daily Pollution
on Daily Temperature
Pollution = Const +βTlag + ε
Summer (2003 – 2005)
Regression coefficients of proportionality between
NO2 and T with different time lags in days
1,8
Slope factor, ug/m3/degree C
1,6
1,4
1,2
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
lag between T and Concentration, days
4,0
6,0
Summer (2003 – 2005)
Regression coefficients of proportionality between
PM10 and T with different time lags in days
2,00
Slope factor, ug/m3/degree C
1,80
1,60
1,40
1,20
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
0,00
-8,0
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
Lag, days
2,0
4,0
6,0
Summer
Т and Concentrations wave in August of 2004
70,0
60,0
50,0
T
40,0
NO2
30,0
O3
20,0
PM10
10,0
0,0
17.08.04
19.08.04
21.08.04
23.08.04
25.08.04
Winter (2003 – 2005)
Regression coefficients of proportionality
between PM10 and T with different time lags
PM10
Slope factor, ug/m3/degree C
0,00
-8
-6
-4
-2
-0,20 0
-0,40
-0,60
-0,80
-1,00
-1,20
-1,40
-1,60
-1,80
Lag, days
2
4
6
8
Number of days with extremely high (in
summer) and extremely low (in winter)
daily average temperatures in 2000 – 2005
Threshold for
temperature
anomaly
+ 20.2
+ 21.8
+ 20.1
June
July
August December January February
2000
5
2
0
0
3
0
2001
4
20
7
10
0
4
2002
8
21
8
12
3
0
2003
0
12
4
0
6
3
2004
3
4
14
0
0
2
2005
3
7
8
0
0
0
10
18
2006
- 13.2
- 16.4
- 14.7
• Summer Heat Waves:
2001 and 2002.
• Energy system failure,
“Black-out” of May 25th, 2005
Heat wave of July’01 and consequent increase of
daily mortality from all causes, all ages
200,0
150,0
100,0
50,0
0,0
-50,028 июн
8 июл
18 июл
28 июл
7 авг
17 авг
-100,0
T above average
Mortality above background
27 авг
6 сен
Moscow, Summer’02
• Extremely high temperatures: 16 days with daily
Тmax above 29 °С, accompanied with smog
situation – 27 days with haze, high level of air
pollution
• Low visibility on highways
• Airports in Moscow Region closed for weather
• Smell of smoke, “empyreuma”
• Eye irritation, breathing problems, headache,
etc.
Results of regression analysis – T-related
increase in daily mortality
•Total mortality of males:
Yt = 146 + (1.18±0.45)T0
•IHD of males:
Yt = 33 + (0.51±0.19)T0
Results of regression analysis –
temperature-related increase in daily
mortality
• Cerebrovascular diseases of males:
Yt = 23.6 + (0.6±0.2)T0 ,
Yt = 14.7 + (0.98±0.19)T-1
(T-1 –temperature on previous day )
• Mortality of males from external causes:
Yt = 18.9 + (0.40±0.19)T0
Health consequences of heat
wave in July’02
632 additional deaths
as direct result of heat wave
Moscow. May 25th, 2005
• Warm weather
• Accident at thermal power station
• Sharp increase of PM10
concentrations: from average value
of 33 ug/m3 to extreme of 71 ug/m3,
NO2 concentrations within the norm
(MosEcoMonitoring data)
Cold wave – January’06
Age group 75 +:
•142 additional deaths
from all causes ( except external),
•including 61 additional deaths
from IHD
Т, air pollution and mortality in Moscow
in 2002 – 2005
4 causes included in the analysis:
All cases, except external
IHD (I20-25)
Cerebrovascular diseases (myocardial
infarction, cerebrovascular accidents) (I 60-69)
Chronic lower respiratory diseases
(bronchitis, emphysema, asthma, asthmatic
status) (J40-47)
Seasonal variations of mortality from all
causes (except external) in age group 75+.
30-day moving average for 2000 – 2004
200,0
180,0
Winter
Winter
Winter
2000
2001
2002
Winter 2003 Winter 2004
daily mortality
160,0
140,0
120,0
100,0
summer
2000
summer
2001
summer
2002
summer
2003
summer
2004
80,0
60,0
40,0
20,0
0,0
24.07.98 06.12.99 19.04.01 01.09.02 14.01.04 28.05.05
Monthly average mortality from ischaemia
in age group 75+ (2002-2005)
avg. daily value
75
70
65
60
55
50
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
month
8
9
10
11
12
Т-mortality curve for Moscow
and “T of maximum comfort”
(2000-2005)
480,0
Mort
450,0
420,0
390,0
360,0
330,0
-30
-20
-10
0
T
10
20
30
Daily Mortality-T relationship in
Moscow, 2000 - 2005
• Moscow:
linear decrease from -20 to +19 °С
[Revich, Golub, Shaposhnikov, 2006]
• London:
linear decrease from 0 to +150C
[Keatinge, Donaldson, 2001]
Results of regression analysis
Relative risks were
calculated for:
• 8 causes of mortality
(4 causes and 2 age
groups)
• and time lags
0, 1, …, 6 days
… and risk factors:
• Temperature increase
above maximum comfort
(+19ºС)
• Temperature decrease
below maximum comfort
(+19ºС)
• Increments of daily
average concentrations of
PM10,, NO2, and O3 by 10
µg/м3
Examples of relative risks of variation of
daily average temperature by 1ºC
Cases
RR of summer
heat (T>20ºC)
RR of cold
temperatures
(T<19ºC)
All causes
(except
external), all
ages
Chronic lower
respiratory
diseases, all ages
2.8%
(2.0%; 3.6%)
-0.44%
(-0.40%; -0.48%)
8.7%
(0.7%; 16.7%)
-1.31%
(-1.75%; -0.87%)
Primer of mortality/temperature
depencency with different time lags
Cerebrovascular mortality, age group 75+
relative risk, %/C
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-8
-6
-4
-2
time lag, days before death
0
Relative risks of mortality per 10 µg/м3 increase
of daily average concentration of pollutant
Causes
Age group
PM10
NO2
O3
All (except
external)
All ages
75+
All ages
75+
0.48
0.96
-
0.39
-
0.57
4.9
7.8
All ages
75+
All ages
75+
0.76
1.11
0.94
1.39
0.66
1.02
1.10
1.55
1.23
Chronic
lower
respiratory
IHD
Cerebrovas
cular
Low Temperatures as Health Risk Factor in
Russia
• North territories make about 64% of total area of the
RF
• Cold discomfort
• Cardio-vascular system
• Respiratory tract
• Mortality from frostbite
• In Russia, about 1,500 people die from frostbite every
year, predominantly males over 20y.o.
• There are no deaths cased by frostbite registered in
European countries with cold climate (Norway,
Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland)
Climate Change and Human
Health in Russian Arctic Region
• Infections diseases - Infrastructure
break-downs in cryolite zone !
• Emergence and new infectious diseases
and parasitosis of sea mammals and
humans ?
• Change in food – dietary problems ?
• Changes in air quality - ?
• Problems with traditional hunting of
northern aborigines - !
WWF-Russia climate
programme
Observations of Climate Change Made by Indigenous
Inhabitants of the Coastal Regions of Chukotka
Majority of people survived have noticed
climate changes
Affirmative 89%
Negative 11%
Vladilen Ivanovich Kavry
39 years of age
Chukchi
Marine Mammal Hunter
Has noticed significant climate changes.
Ice breaks up a month earlier than it did
before.
Old ice no longer exists.
Walrus stay longer at haul out sites.
Birds depart later.
Required research of
climate/health in Russia
• Infectious diseases and T relationship
• Mortality and T relationship in different
climate zones (North, Siberia, Far East)
• Climate warming and traditional crafts
in Arctic
The following documents should
be prepared:
• National Climate Health Impact Assessment
• Scientific Report about Climate change and
health at Russian Arctic
• National Climate Health Action Plan
(as French “Plan Canicule”, UK, Germany,
Spain, Finland, etc.)
Спасибо за внимание !
Thank you for attention!!