632.78: 57.055 я , , [email protected], я, , Ȼɨɬɚɧɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɫɚɞ ɍɪɈ ɊȺɇ ɊȿȺɅɂɁȺɐɂə ȼɋɉɕɒȿɄ ɆȺɋɋɈȼɈȽɈ ɊȺɁɆɇɈɀȿɇɂə ɁȺɍɊȺɅɖɋɄɈɃ ɉɈɉɍɅəɐɂɂ ɇȿɉȺɊɇɈȽɈ ɒȿɅɄɈɉɊəȾȺ LYMANTRIA DISPAR (L.) (LEPIDOPTERA, LYMANTRIIDAE) ȼ ɊȺɁɅɂɑɇɕɏ ɅȿɋɈɊȺɋɌɂɌȿɅɖɇɕɏ ɍɋɅɈȼɂəɏ ɇȺ ɋȿȼȿɊɇɈɃ ȽɊȺɇɂɐȿ ȺɊȿȺɅȺ ȼɫɩɵɲɤɚ ɦɚɫɫɨɜɨɝɨ ɪɚɡɦɧɨɠɟɧɢɹ, ɧɟɩɚɪɧɵɣ ɲɟɥɤɨɩɪɹɞ, ɥɟɫɨɪɚɫɬɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɟ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɹ, ɞɟɮɨɥɢɚɰɢɹ. Outbreak, gypsy moth, forest conditions, defoliation. ȼɜɟɞɟɧɢɟ. , , ɪɟɡɤɨɦɭ ɦɧɨɝɨɤɪɚɬɧɨɦɭ ɭɜɟɥɢɱɟɧɢɸ ɱɢɫɥɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ ɨɫɨɛɟɣ ɩɨɩɭɥɹɰɢɢ ɢɥɢ ɝɪɭɩɩ ɩɨɩɭɥɹɰɢɣ , , , [1–3]. , , [4], . . . , . . . [5]. . – , , , , [5]. , – , 100 , , , [6]. 34 « » , , , - , . . . : , , ., - , . - Lymantria dispar (L.). : 5–6 , – 25 . ( , , ( 1950- ), [7]. 10–12 .) [8]. ( ) ( 1940- .) : 1959–1967, 1985–1986 1998–1999 . [9, 10], 2006–2010 , ( . 1977–1979 ), , . , , - [7, 11], . 1959–1967 . 50 3–3,5 , . . ( [9]. - ). – , , , - , , , , . , . ( , 35 ), . Ɇɚɬɟɪɢɚɥ ɢ ɦɟɬɨɞɵ. 1950 2000 . [9, 10]. 1980- . 1990- , ., , . 2005 2011 . , : ; , , ; ( . . [12]). 10. . ё 2 0,5 0,5 . , 414; 10 % , – 275; , – 225. - , « – . - » [13]. Microsoft Excel 2003 Statistica 6.0. Ɋɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ ɢ ɨɛɫɭɠɞɟɧɢɟ. , : ; , , ; - . 1980- . , . . - , . . , , , . ( 1980- . 1). . ( – – 2,3). 2000( 36 . – – 1,3). е е 5,00 20 4,00 15 а, 3,00 а К ГТК 10 2,00 5 1,00 0,00 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Ɋɢɫ. 1. ( - ). . . , , . , - , , ( ) . . 2005 . – - . . ( ( . 3) . 2) - , , (> 2) . 2005 37 0 38 , (2005–2010 в а в .) ( 2000- в ±SD) . (2005–2010 в , 20002011 в 2010 а 2009 в 2008 в 2007 2006 2010 в 2011 2009 в 2005 40 2008 2006 60 2007 2005 , 2011 2010 2009 2007 2006 П 2011 2010 2008 2007 2005 2009 2005 2008 2007 2006 2006 2011 2010 2009 2008 0 2008 2007 2006 ,% 5 2005 а а 2011 2010 а в , 2009 2005 20 15 10 , в а Ɋɢɫ. 2. .) 100 80 20 в в а Ɋɢɫ. 3. . . 15 2006 . . ( ), 2007 ( 2006 . 2008 ). 70. - .– - , . 2009 2010 ., - , , 2006 . , , , , , . , , . , , . ( , , - ) . , , - , – ȼɵɜɨɞɵ. . , , , . . - , , , – . , , . , - , , , . № 11-4- -527) № 12- -4-1035. ( 39 Ȼɢɛɥɢɨɝɪɚɮɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɫɩɢɫɨɤ 1. [ . , 1989. – 864 . 2. Ɋɟɣɦɟɪɫ, ɇ.Ɏ. [ ]: .: , 1990. – 639 . 3. [ ]/ .: , 1992. – 334 . 4. Ⱦɟɞɸ, ɂ.ɂ. . . . .– : . . . . 5. ɋɬɚɞɧɢɰɤɢɣ, Ƚ.ȼ. . – 1976. – № 1. – . 92–93. 6. Ʉɭɡɶɦɢɧɚ, Ⱦ.Ⱥ. . .… . - . / . . .– 7. ɋɨɤɨɥɨɜ, Ƚ.ɂ. [ ]/ . . // : , 1988. – . 28–29. 8. Ƚɧɢɧɟɧɤɨ, ɘ.ɂ. ]/ . . . .– - / . . .– . . , . . .– .: . [ [ ]/ . . ., 1990. – 406 . ]/ . . ; - // ]: [ ., 2006. – 20 . .– ] / [ . . , . . , . . XXI.: . . . . . . . , 20–25 9. Ȼɟɥɨɝɥɚɡɨɜ, ȼ.Ⱥ. . . // , 2001. – . 34–40. 10. Ʉɨɥɬɭɧɨɜ, ȿ.ȼ. , . . , . . // 11. Ƚɧɢɧɟɧɤɨ, ɘ.ɂ. // : V 2011 . – [ .– XX . [ . – 2003. – № 1. – . 46–57. 12. Ʉɨɥɟɫɧɢɤɨɜ, Ȼ.ɉ. [ ]/ . . , . . , . . , 1974. – 176 . 13. « »[ ȼɜɟɞɟɧɢɟ. , . , Ɇɚɬɟɪɢɚɥɵ ɢ ɦɟɬɨɞɵ. 40 , 2011. – . 144–146. [ ] / ] / .– , . . , 1991. – . 128–143. ]/ . . // - .– ]. – : : http://rp5.ru Lymantria dispar (L.) . , , . . Statistica 6.0. Microsoft Excel 2003 - - . . Ɋɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ ɢ ɨɛɫɭɠɞɟɧɢɟ. , , , . - , , ,– . , . . . ȼɵɜɨɞɵ. , . , , . , – , - , . *** Introduction. In this paper is considered an effect of weather conditions on realization of outbreaks of Trans-Urals gypsy moth Lymantria dispar (L.) population on the northern border of outbreak areas. For more than half-century period of forest pathological observations in this area, the three gypsy moth outbreaks were registered, and two periods of high density without noticeable defoliation of host plants were mentioned. However these periods of high density coincided with outbreaks in the central part of this population. Materials and methods. A comparative analysis of weather conditions during two last realized outbreaks and two periods of high density was conducted. For the analysis of occurring outbreak field studies were conducted on permanent plots. On the basis of KamenskUralski weather station records hydrothermal conditions data were calculated. Literature sources data were used in the analysis of previous outbreaks. Results and discussion. Growths of gypsy moth population, which can be characterized by dramatic increase in population density to outbreak level without forest-stands damage, occurred under more contrast hydrothermal conditions. Outbreaks of pest resulted in moderate or sever defoliation of forest stands took place under more stable hydrothermal conditions. Analysis of population dynamics during the last gypsy moth outbreak, with prolonged duration of eruptive phase, showed more intense defoliation in forest stands under stable forestgrowing conditions, but outbreak progress in contrasting forest-growing conditions was determined by weather conditions during larvae growth. Conclusions. Generally, analysis of hydrothermal conditions at the beginning and during outbreaks showed that outbreak level in contrasting forest-growing conditions depended on weather conditions. In dry to periodically fresh forest-growing conditions outbreak occured under high precipitation, whereas in fresh to periodically wet conditions – under low precipitation. In case of realized outbreaks defoliation was most severely under the fresh forest-growing conditions regardless of contrast range of hydrothermal conditions. 41