Загрузил mirmuhiddin

EI Uzbekistan Webinar May 27 rs

реклама
IMPACTS OF CORONAVIRUS
AND RESPONSES TO
PRESERVE ECONOMIC
SUSTAINABILITY
IN UZBEKISTAN
Tashkent, 2020
3333
14
2636
total cases
+72
dead
+1
cured
+29
40%
60%
1165
total cases
4
9
11
18
23
33
cured
41
45
46
50
60
75
266
172 181 205 227
88 104 144 150
7
7
8
13
25
25
25
342
457
30
520 546 582
30
30
30
38
669
42
767
42
865
66
1302
1349 1405
1490
1564
1804
1716 1758
1627 1678
2233
2149 2189 2207
2086 2118
2002 2039
1939
1862 1869 1904
998
85
99
107
129
156
194
225
261
357
450
561
621
707
789
892
992
1096 1133
1212
1271
1319
1405
1501
1577
2298 2325 2349
1656
1775
2418
1846 1881
2486
2547
2753 2791
2686 2738
2612 2645
2075
1988 2039
2135 2157
2212 2246
2855
2939 2967
2372 2407
2313 2338
3036
3215
3115 3164
3290 3333
2636 2636
2565 2607
2492 2532
3.15 3.16 3.17 3.18 3.19 3.20 3.21 3.22 3.23 3.24 3.25 3.26 3.27 3.28 3.29 3.30 3.31 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14 4.15 4.16 4.17 4.18 4.19 4.20 4.21 4.22 4.23 4.24 4.25 4.26 4.27 4.28 4.29 4.30 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11 5.12 5.13 5.14 5.15 5.16 5.17 5.18 5.19 5.20 5.21 5.22 5.23 5.24 5.25 5.26 5.27
INFECTED PATIENTS
4
9
11
310
200 239
102 135 141 162 166 178
87
75
60
50
46
45
41
33
23
18
513 541
425 488
624
721 795
909
1062
1191 1216 1245 1292 1334 1361 1315 1259 1190 1176 1147
1072 1004
939 897 897 865
838 820 774
696 646 632
641 683
540 493 527 488 498 527 499 518 515 496 466 504 554 547 531 570 586 595
May
May
April
90
Companies
restarted
Moderately
positive
Surveyed 6000+ people
(representative by gender, age, income, location)
Negative answers were more then positive ones
•
10% experienced income growth against 46%
•
20% see job increase, 46% see job decrease
•
15% are willing to buy durables
•
88% perceive positively the government
measures to support citizens during COVID
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX
•
•
•
91 % of companies in industry, 76 % in
construction, 52% in services and 44% in
trade resumed their activities.
13% increase in amount of loans given by
commercial banks compared to April
sale of construction materials increased
20%
Surveyed 451 companies
(representative by sectors and regions)
Positive answers were more than negative ones
•
34% answered positively
•
19% answered negatively
BUSINESS ACTIVITY
BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX
Measures to mitigate the coronavirus impacts in Uzbekistan
World
Zero rates of
customs duty and
excise tax for the
importation of 20
categories goods
(13 food and 7
hygienic)
Tax rates for the use
of water resources
for the volumes used
for irrigation of
agricultural land is
reduced by 50
percent of the
established rates
Exports
of
goods
and
service
s
Technology
imports
Parts
Raw materials
Specialists
Donor aid, state
orders
exports of gold,
uranium, cotton, etc.
Government
Labor
Capital
Imports of
consumer
The accrual and
payment of
goods
tourist (hotel)
tax is
and
suspended
services
remittanc
providing liquidity in the
es
money market for a total
amount of up to 1 trillion
soums (100 million USD)
per month
Goods and services, salary
Business
Compensation for covering
interest expenses: on
investment loans issued to
business entities in national
currency with interest rate not
exceeding 1.75 times the
size of the main Central Bank
rates (15%) in the first year of
the loan agreement
A guarantee on loans issued to
business entities with a positive
credit history for working
capital replenishment up to
75% inclusive of the loan
amount, but not more than 1
million USD, regardless of the
number of projects;
Payers of VAT, the
turnover of which does
not exceed 100 000
thousand USD per
month and using
electronic invoices, is
entitled pay VAT on a
quarterly basis
“Charity and Support” nationwide
movement
Population
Profit, labor
Financial
Sector
Majority of service
orientated business
entities are exempted
from paying land tax
and property tax; pay
social tax at a
reduced rate of 1
percent
The Anti-Crisis Fund will
allocate additional 20
million USD for the Public
Works Fund to use for
employment and
construction of additional
infrastructure in
communities.
Extension of state
financing up to 500
billion soums, for
guarantees to
businesses and
compensation for
covering interest
expenses on loans.
Source: Based on
Baldwin (2020b)
THANK YOU
Umid Abidhadjaev, Ph.D.
Deputy Director
Center for Economic
Research and Reforms
Tashkent, Uzbekistan
[email protected]
We are working on bridging the gap
4.1% GDP growth in the first quarter od 2020 (vs 5.7% in Q1-2019).
The Q1 data only partially reflects economic impact :
❑ Gradual quarantine as of March 15
❑ Q1 trade impact felt with key trade partner China + fiscal pressure over response to COVID-19.
The data for the first 4 months published by CB is significantly more reflective:
❑ Export decreased by 10.6% to $4.4 billion, import decreased by 10.8% to $6.4 billion (YoY)
❑ Foreign reserves reached $31.27 billion (+$0.98 in April), but physical gold decreased by 0.1 million ounces
❑ Gold stands at 35.3% of total exports in Jan-Apr 2020, equal to $1.5 billion (26.5% increase YoY)
❑ Compensated significantly for a sharp decrease in exports of :
• Natural gas by 51.1% (YoY)
• Export of food products by 24.1% (YoY)
• Textile fibre by 53.8% (YoY)
• Non-ferrous metals 27.8% (YoY) as well cast iron & steel 48.9% (YoY)
Expected regional growth rates in GDP
Projections for annual GDP growth rate 2020-21
Country
5.8
ADB
4.7
6.5
WORLD BANK
1.6
7
IMF
1.8
Fact EBRD*
IMF
WB
ADB
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020
Uzbekistan
5.6
1.5
1.8
1.6
4.7
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyz Republic
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
CENTRAL ASIA*
4.5
4.5
7.5
6.3
5.1
-3.0
-4.0
-1.0
1.0
-1.2
-2.5
-4.0
1.0
1.8
-1.0
-0.8
0.4
1.0
**
0.1
1.8
4.0
5.5
6.0
2.8
6.5
ERRD
1.5
0
UZB CENTRAL BANK
Notes:
1.5
0
1
2
3
2021
4
2020
5
6
7
8
* Central Asian regional data for EBRD also includes Mongolia
** World Bank has not released updated projections for
Turkmenistan’s GDP growth. A full updated economic outlook
is expected to be released in early June
❑ Addressing the external shock and the domestic impact of COVID-19 is
expected to require additional external financing of $ 4 billion (7% of GDP)
according to the latest IMF report.
❑ Fiscal deficit is forecast expected to increase from 0.4 in 2019 to 4.1 percent
of GDP in 2020. In addition to automatic stabilizers, the larger deficit reflects
tax relief to SME’s & large additional spending needs.
❑ A Presidential decree published on 22-04-2020 (PP-4691) indicates that
Uzbekistan has reached preliminary agreements with IFI’s to attract
preferential long-term loans and grants in excess of $ 3 billion.
❑ Governments often fund fiscal deficits by issuing bonds.
No specific plans announced, but given the data, rapid recovery of markets
& Uzbekistan’s rating and stability, it may be reasonable consideration.
THANK YOU
www.EUROUZ.com
[email protected]
Oybek Shaykhov
Secretary-General
Europe-Uzbekistan Association
for Economic Cooperation
Brussels, Belgium
Twitter: @OShaykhov
COVID-19: Impact on Business
in Uzbekistan
Eldor Mannopov
Uzbekistan Managing Partner
Dentons Tashkent
Impact of COVID-19 on investment projects
Major challenges faced by investment projects:
Labor mobility
Liquidity
capital flow restrictions
Stand-by in projects
Supply chain
disruptions
Travel
restrictions
Internal & External.
Impact of COVID-19 on employment
An employer during quarantine is obliged to:
vtransfer employees to
remote work with full
wages (if the workload
remains the same).
vtransfer an employee
to another position,
part-time job or place
on a paid leave if the
work cannot be
performed remotely.
vpay temporary
disability benefit.
Mitigation of COVID-19 impact on business
Force Majeure
Government support
Force majeure
Between 15 March 15 to 20 May, over 20 regulations adopted, which aimed at
mitigation of the pandemic impact
Fiscal measures
Non-fiscal measures
•
•
Accelerated customs clearance procedure;
•
Tax audit is deferred until 1 January, 2021;
•
Deferral of principal payment for loan debts
until 1 October for businesses faced
challenges due to imposition of foreign
trade restrictions;
•
•
Decrease of taxes rates by 50% for water
used for irrigation of agricultural land;
Small businesses (catering, cinemas)
exempted from land and property taxes for
1 June – 1 September;
0 excise taxes and customs duties rates
until 31 December for medical equipment
and consumer goods.
•
Allocating interest-free budget loans to
repay loans for strategic enterprises.
•
On the 25 March, the Government of Uzbekistan established
force majeure regime due to COVID-19 pandemic;
•
Only extraordinary, unavoidable and unforeseen circumstances,
caused by natural phenomena or socio-economic
circumstances, which do not depend on the will and actions of
the parties is considered to be force majeure;
•
The MIFT and CCI issue certificates confirming occurrence of
force majeure with respect to foreign trade;
•
The certificate is issued for 1 day.
Thank you! Q&A
Eldor Mannopov
Uzbekistan Managing Partner
Dentons Tashkent
T +998 78 150 31 05
E [email protected]
5
The economic impact of COVID 19 on
Uzbekistan: in a global context
British Uzbek Society
May 2020
Louis Skyner, Partner, London / Tashkent
The global economic impact of COVID 19
• COVID has triggered a significant economic crisis as it has catalysed a
self – enforcing cycle:
• a supply shock – plant shutdowns and logistics bottlenecks are reducing the
supply of goods with businesses reducing investment;
• a demand shock – quarantine measures are curtailing consumer spending
and have caused a decline in consumer confidence; and,
• a credit crunch – the reduction in business and consumer lending with
liquidity restraints has further reduced investment and consumption.
• In addition, COVID has:
• had a negative impact on capital markets inflicting a reduction of investment
capital and consumable wealth; and,
• has led to a widening of credit spreads negatively impacting on lending.
2
The economic impact of COVID 19 on Uzbekistan
• Uzbekistan is faring better than its neighbours and other emerging
economies as it has a diversified economy in terms of export and
supplies a number of key markets.
• Further, as its economy is not sophisticated, there being no long-term
impact on demand for agricultural produce and commodities, the
process of recovery should be simpler than in developed economies.
• All the IFIs predict a GDP growth rebound and level much quicker and
higher than the majority of emerging and frontier economies.
• Although the government has increased the external debt ceiling to
50% of GDP the IFIs do not view Uzbekistan as being at risk as the
level of non – IFI debt remains modest.
3
Key impacts that concern investors
• The April remittances of USD 250 million represented a 50% fall year
on year and a decrease of 15% from March.
• The Central Bank predicts that remittances will fall by 50% in Q2 year
on year, with the total decline for 2020 of around 35% or 5% of GDP.
• The 15% devaluation in the national currencies of Uzbekistan’s main
trading partners, lower prices for commodities, a fall in export earnings,
and a reduction in revenue from remittances precipitated a devaluation
of the Uzbek Soum of 5.7% in April.
• Border closures, lower commodity prices and the reduced economic
activity of key trading partners has led to a fall in foreign trade turnover.
• The current account deficit is set to increase from 6.5% to 9.4% of GDP
in 2020, a deficit which the government plans to finance through
external debt and drawing on the country’s foreign currency reserves.
4
Threat to FDI and portfolio investment
• FDI could decline as the share value of strategic investors are hit and
CAPEX reduced.
• Banks are likely to be less willing to finance high risk projects, i.e.
projects for which project revenues have been reduced and which have
higher credit risk.
• Portfolio investors / funds could refocus on developed markets due to
the drop in share prices on established exchanges and the opportunity
that presents.
5
Contact
Louis Skyner
Partner
M: +44 7815 005 813
[email protected]
Louis, an English qualified solicitor, joined Dentons in May 2017 having
worked in the project finance and energy practice of a leading
international law firm in both its London and Moscow offices. He is a
partner in the firm’s London and Tashkent offices.
His oil & gas practice has primarily been based on advising E&P
companies on their participation in upstream and downstream projects,
project sponsors on the negotiation of finance and project documents, and
project operators on a variety of contractual and regulatory issues in
Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. In terms of his power practice Louis
has advised the project sponsors of a variety of solar, wind and hydro
projects on their structuring and financing, and the operators on the
negotiation of the key project documents, e.g. EPC contracts and offtake
arrangements, in Russia, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan
Louis has used the aforementioned experience to provide advice to
development banks and governments across the region: on the
implementation of concession and public private partnership
arrangements for energy and infrastructure projects in Russia and
Ukraine; and, the unbundling and the development of competitive power
markets in Uzbekistan.
Finally, over the past three years Louis has been advising a
number of funds on their investments in Uzbekistan, and the
Uzbek government on the structuring of mechanisms
facilitating foreign investment. This work includes advising:
private equity funds on their acquisition of publicly listed and
unlisted securities; and, the Uzbek government on the
structuring of a State – owned direct investment fund
established to facilitate, structure, and co-finance investment
projects.
Aside from his legal practice Louis has authored numerous
articles on Eurasian energy market regulation, economics
and politics, from 2005 to 2011 as an associate fellow at
Chatham House in London, from 2012 to 2014 as adjunct
professor of the New Economic School in Moscow, from 2015
to 2016 as associate professor of the European University in
St Petersburg, and from 2016 as an associate fellow of the
Forum for Central Asian Studies at the University of
Cambridge. Finally, Louis was elected chairman of the British
Uzbek Society in October 2018.
6
Скачать