Document 2692437
advertisement
!48.<* 14+/#/%)3&,= – /,8+/#! .., +.>...
1. «1!#)3&,=23#/ /22)*2+/* &%&1!7)) ) !.+ /22)) 0/23!#),)
(!%!84 2.)()3= ).5,@7)? %/ 4-5,5% # 2009 $/%4» – $/#/1),/2= # %/+,!%&
«2./#.<& .!01!#,&.)@ &%)./* $/24%!123#&../* %&.&'./-+1&%)3./*
0/,)3)+) .! 2007 $/%». !+ /+!(!,/2= # 1&!,=./23), 3!+!@ 7&,=
314%./%/23)')-!: # 2007 $. 1/23 7&. # 0/,3/1! 1!(! 01&#<2),
(!0,!.)1/#!..<*, %! ) # 2008 $. /. 3!+'& @#./ )%A3 # /0&1&'&.)& 0,!./#
&.31!,=./$/ !.+!. 8&- 2#@(!./ 3!+/& .&2//3#&323#)& '&,!&-/$/ )
%&*23#)3&,=./$/ – #/3 #/01/2, /3#&34 .! +/3/1<* 0/2#@:&./ #2A "/,=9&
23!3&* ) -.&.)*.
<%&,@?3 #.&9.)& ) #.431&..)& 5!+3/1<, /+!(<#!?:)& #,)@.)& .!
1/23 7&.. 1&%) 0&1#<6 – 4%/1/'!.)& 01/%/#/,=23#)@ .! -)1/#<6 1<.+!6,
+ 0/2,&%.)- /3./2@3 +!+ 1/23 3!1)5/# &23&23#&..<6 -/./0/,)*,
.&/"6/%)-<* %,@ 0/#<9&.)@ )6 1<./8.<6 +/3)1/#/+, 3!+ ) #/(.)+./#&.)&
)("<3/8./$/ 201/2! .! 1&2412< # 01/)(#/%23#&, # 3/- 8)2,& .! 1!"/84?
2),4, 3/ &23= 0&1&$1&# # >+/./-)+& (41!#,A#, 2008). /%&,) +1&%)3./%&.&'./* 0/,)3)+) !11/ ) /1%/.! (Barro and Gordon, 1983), ! 3!+'&
,!1)%< 2 2/!#3/1!-) (Clarida, e.a., 1999) 4+!(<#!?3 .! 3/, 83/ )("<3/8.!@
).5,@7)@ -/'&3 "<3= 2#@(!.! 2 ).3&1&2!-) -/.&3!1.<6 #,!23&*. !+
).5,@7)/..<* 2%#)$ #/(.)+!&3 01) 0/0<3+& %/23)'&.)@ #<042+!,
01&#<9!?:&$/ &23&23#&..<* 41/#&.=.
%/0/,.)3&,=./-4 2-&:&.)? # 1/23& 7&., -< 28)3!&-, -/'&3
01)#&23) ) /";@#,&..!@ !.+/- /22)) (!%!8! 23!"),)(!7)) 1&!,=./$/
/"-&../$/ +412!. .!23/@:&* 1!"/3& )(48!&32@ #,)@.)& .!-&1&.)@
-/.&3!1.<6 #,!23&* 2$,!%)3= +/,&"!.)@ #!,?3./$/ +412! .! /03)-!,=.4?
).5,@7)?, %,@ 8&$/ 231/)32@ -/%&,=, #+,?8!?:!@ .&/+&*.2)!.2+4?
+1)#4? ),,)02!, ! 3!+'& 48)3<#!?:4? 20&7)5)+4 #!,?3./$/ 1<.+!. 0/-/:=? >3/* -/%&,) 3!+'& 01/#&1@&32@ 01&%0/,/'&.)&, 83/ 1/23 7&. .!
-&23.<& 3/#!1< 42),)#!&32@ 01) 0/0<3+& 7&.31!,=./$/ "!.+! 4%&9&#)3=
#!,?34.
64
D'=+304 .. ! % $ !
2. 1&)4*&6D 7(4+29 (1.D3.C 3& 9=&783.04( . 6@30. 8+2& 06+*.834*+3+,34/ 541.8.0. <+386&1A34)4 '&30& (@-@(&+8 54(@>+33@/ .38+6+7.
34).+ &(846@ 547(D8.1. 7(4. 6&'48@ .-9=+3.C 458.2&1A34)4 964(3D
564<+3834/ 78&(0., .3:1D<.4334)4 6&-6@(&, .771+*4(&3.C (1.D3.D 3&
B04342.09 6&-1.=3@; 6+,.24( 4'2+334)4 0967& . 564=.2 (45647&2.
&-&147A '@, 6&-344'6&-.+ 24*+1+/ 3+ 478&(1D+8 2+78& .334(&<.D2, 4*3&04
3+ 784.8 -&'@(&8A, =84 &(846@ ( '41A>.378(+ 7(4E2 – 56+*78&(.8+1. 786&3 7
6&-(.8@2. :.3&374(@2. 6@30&2.. 6+*5414,+3.D .; 7448(+878(9C8
B04342.0&2 09*& '41++ 564*(.398@2, =+2 6477./70&D. &772486.2
3&.'41++ 54591D63@+ 54*;4*@.
2.1. 4-64,*+3.+ .38+6+7& 0 564'1+2+ 3&=.3&+87D 7 043<& 80-; (
3+04846@; 6&'48&;: Romer and Romer, 1989; Bernanke and Blinder, 1992;
Gali, 1992. 4)*& B25.6.=+70. '@14 (@D(1+34 -3&=.8+1A34+ (1.D3.+
243+8&634/ 541.8.0. 3& 6+&1A39C B04342.09 ( 06&804764=342 5+6.4*+, &
8&0,+ 564.-4>14 79?+78(+334+ .-2+3+3.+ ( 2+84*&;, 56.2+3D+2@; 0
&3&1.-9 *+/78(./ <+386&1A34)4 '&30&. 6+*. 3&.'41++ -3&=.2@;
.771+*4(&3./ 78&8AD
B/146& (Taylor, 1993), 547(D?E33&D 56&(.19
564<+3834/ 78&(0., & 8&0,+ 6&'48& +63&60+ . .>0.3&, 4'4734(&(>&D
8&6)+8.64(&3.+ .3:1D<.. (Bernanke and Mishkin, 1997). 7E B84 (095+ 7
*69).2. 6&'48&2. '@14 4'4'?+34 ( 78&8A+ 1&6.*& 7 74&(846&2. (Clarida,
e.a., 1999). 47(D?E33&D &3&1.-9 06+*.834-*+3+,34/ 541.8.0. ( -&06@84/
B04342.0+, B8& 78&8AD 7922.69+8 .771+*4(&8+1A70./ 45@8 . 978&3&(1.(&+8
564=34+ 4734(&3.+ *1D *&1A3+/>+)4 6&-(.8.D.
78&8A+ (@>+9542D3984/ 78&8A+ .7541A-9+87D :930<.D 548+6A
<+386&1A34)4 '&30&, (@6&,+33&D =+6+- 0(&*6&8@ 480143+3./ .3:1D<.. .
48 <+1+(4)4 964(3D. &0&D 75+<.:.0&<.D 8&0,+ >.6404 56.2+3D+87D (
6&'48&; 4' 4806@84/ B04342.0+. &0 540&-&1 .1AD27 (Williams, 1997), 43&
7448(+878(9+8 -&'48&2 243+8&63@; (1&78+/ #, & 8&0,+ 54*06+51+3&
:462&1A3@2 4'4734(&3.+2, 56+*78&(1+33@2 48+2'+6)42 . 9*:46*42
(Rotemberg and Woodford, 1999). .3.2.-&<.D *&334/ <+1+(4/ :930<..
56.(4*.8 0 .3:1D<.. . 6&-6@(9 , -&(.7D?.2 .701C=.8+1A34 48 >40& (
.-*+6,0&;, ( 84 (6+2D 0&0 3& 458.2&1A39C 564<+3839C 78&(09 (1.DC8
4,.*&+2&D .3:1D<.D . 3+56+*(.*+33@+ .-2+3+3.D ( 75647+.
3:1D<.433@/ 7*(.) ( 8&042 719=&+ (4-3.0&+8 841A04 56. 978&34(1+3..
(@5970& (@>+ 548+3<.&1A34)4 . -&(.7.8 48 3&0143& 06.(4/ ".11.57& .
78+5+3. 4'+75404+33478. 243+8&63@; (1&78+/ 6&-6@(42 .
65
G*@.637 .. # ("& # !
2.2. )4.6D3)G :;9)6), 6. 15.FB)G +41G61G 6) 7:;)4D672 519 – E;7
8.9+7. 89.-8747/.61. +7 +:.> 34F@.+C> 9)*7;)> 7* 7;39C;72 E3767513..
1675 :4<@). +41G61. :;9)6C 6) 0)9<*./6C2 +C8<:3, <97+.6D ?.6 1
897?.6;6C. :;)+31 06)@1;.4D67 <:47/6147 *C )6)410. !4.-<G :7*:;+.66C5
/. 9.375.6-)?1G5, <875G6<;C5 + :;);D. 1999 ,7-), 4)91-), )41 1
.9;4.9 (Clarida, e.a., 2001) 9):A19141 :+7F 57-.4D, -7*)+1+ <:47+1.
6.8739C;7,7 897?.6;67,7 8)91;.;), -787461+ <9)+6.61. :7+73<867,7
:897:) 0)+1:157:;DF 7; 167:;9)6672 897?.6;672 :;)+31, )6)47,1@67
9)*7;. )41 1 76)@.441 (Gali and Monacelli, 2005).
>7-. 9.A.61G 57-.4D *C4) :+.-.6) 3 <9)+6.61G5, 1-.6;1@6C5 87
:+715 E6-7,.66C5 :7:;)+4GFB15 +C9)/.61G5, 7*9)0<FB15 0)39C;<F
E3767513< + :;);D. 1999 ,7-). C+7-C :77;+.;:;+.667 *C41 :>7-6C: 97:;
?.6 6) -75)A61. ;7+)9C 1 9)09C+ 0)+1:G; 7; A737+ + 10-.9/3)>, +
<:47+1G> 8915.6.61G 78;15)4D672 8741;131 105.6.61G + <875G6<;75
9)09C+. 897879?176)4D6C 7;3476.61G5 16=4G?11 7; ?.4.+7,7 <97+6G.
")3/. *C4) +C+.-.6) 6.7*>7-157:;D 891:87:7*4.61G <:47+12 ;79,7+41 3
9)09C+< , 67, :)57. ,4)+67., *C47 7;5.@.67 9)041@1. 5./-<
16=4G?1.2 87;9.*1;.4D:31> ?.6 1 97:;75 ?.6 6) 5.:;6C. ;7+)9C.
:874D07+)61. 87:4.-6.,7 + 57-.41, 6) 572 +0,4G-, 1 89.-789.-.4147
1-.6;1@67:;D 9.0<4D;);7+. +;79C 9)::5);91+)F; ;74D37 5.:;67.
89710+7-:;+7, 1:34F@)G +41G61. 15879;) 1, :4.-7+);.4D67, 0)9<*./672
16=4G?11 1 897?.6;6C> :;)+73 6) -14.55< 5./-< 97:;75 ?.6 1 +C8<:375,
89.-:;)+4.6672 + 391+72 $14418:), + ;7 +9.5G 3)3 76) 7-6) :4</1;
7,9)61@.61.5 + 897*4.5. 5161510)?11 =<63?11 87;.9D.
#:;)67+4.61. ?.6 + 9)*7;)> 4)91-C, )41 1 .9;4.9) (Clarida, e.a.,
1999), ) ;)3 /. )41 1 76)@.441 (Gali and Monacelli, 2005) 7:67+C+).;:G
6) 89.-8747/.61G> )4D+7 (Calvo, 1983) 7* 1> :;<8.6@);75 105.6.611.
-6)37, 3)3 873)0C+)F; .+.97 1 '6,.4D (Devereux and Engel, 2000), 891
:<B.:;+.6675 E==.3;. 8.9.>7-) A73 6) 9C63. 167:;9)6672 +)4F;C *<-.;
7;9)/H6 + 5.:;6C> ?.6)>. %;7*C <@.:;D ;)3<F +7057/67:;D, 57/67
:7+5.:;1;D ;7+)9C : 8746C5 E==.3;75 8.9.>7-) 1 @):;1@6C5, 3)3,
6)8915.9, E;7 :-.4)4) 7*9C6:3)G (Dobrynskaya, 2006). 915.6.61. 0)376)
.-1672 ?.6C -4G 15879;19<.5C> ;7+)97+ 1 :;<8.6@);7,7 ?.677*9)07+)61G
-4G 5.:;6C> -78746G.; 391+<F $14418:), 1:874D0<.5<F 4)91-72, )41 1
.9;4.975 (Clarida e.a., 1999) 0)+1:157:;DF 16=4G?11 7; 9.)4D67,7
7*5.667,7 3<9:). 9.0<4D;);. 9)+67+.:6C2 97:; ?.6 :;)67+1;:G 9)+6C5
?.4.+75< <97+6F 84F: 6.897,67019<.5C. A731 89.-47/.61G 1 +)4F;67,7
3<9:). -)6675 :4<@). *74DA7. 06)@.61. 15..; 89.-8747/.61. 7
:4<@)2675 *4</-)611 9.)4D67,7 7*5.667,7 3<9:).
66
!H+A/748 . . $ ! )#' $!"
/:/. 7*A*586 8+;=0./72H 687/<*:783 9852<242 !8;;22 2
98.?8.HC/3 68./52, ;5/.=/< 8<6/<2<E ;<*<EG %:*74/5H 2 &277* (Frankel
and Chinn, 1995), 9:/.;<*,2,B2? F4878624= , 78627*5E7D? 9*:*6/<:*?.
,<8:D <*40/ ,,8.H< >=74@2G 98</:E, , 48<8:=G 986268 9:2,DA7D?
9/:/6/77D? ,45GA/78 8<78B/72/ 8+6/778-8 4=:;* 4 7/48<8:86=
:*,78,/;786= 17*A/72G, A<8 8<:*0*/< 1*.*A= /-8 ;<*+2521*@22. (<= 2./G
:*1,252 %:83/7 2 =F7./: (Froyen and Guender, 2000), 48<8:D/ ,,/52 ,
68./5E 802.*72H 2 .89857252 ;2;</6= =:*,7/723 7/984:D<D6
9:8@/7<7D6 9*:2</<86. D:*0/72H 7*98627*G< <*48,D/ = 5*:2.D, *52
2 /:<5/:* (Clarida e.a., 2001, 1999), 78 1*92;*7D , </:627*? =:8,7/3 @/7
,D9=;4*. %:83/7 2 =F7./: (Froyen and Guender, 2000) 7/ 9:/.5*-*G<
/.27;<,/778 ,/:78-8 9:*,25* 4:/.2<78-./7/0783 9852<242, 872
1*45GA*G<, A<8 ./3;<,2H @/7<:*5E78-8 +*74* 1*,2;H< 8< 2;<8A7248, B848,
, F4878624/ 2 17*A/723 ;88<,/<;<,=GC2? 9*:*6/<:8,. :/26=C/;<,8
<*:-/<2:8,*72H 78627*5E78-8 ,D9=;4* , .*7783 ;9/@2>24*@22
4869/7;2:=/<;H 7/;<*+25E78;<EG 8+6/778-8 4=:;*. DB/=986H7=<D/
*,<8:D 9:217*G<, A<8 :/1=5E<*<D 7/ 78,D 2 98.<,/:0.*G< :*7//
985=A/77D/, 4 9:26/:=, =586 (Poole, 1970), 78 , .*7786 ;5=A*/ 8;8+D3
27</:/; 9:/.;<*,5H/< ;*6* 68./5E 8<4:D<83 F48786242, =;5807I77*H ,
;:*,7/722 ; 726.
/:/?8.H 7/98;:/.;<,/778 4 ,89:8;= <*:-/<2:8,*72H :/*5E78-8
8+6/778-8 4=:;* , !8;;22, 8+:*<26;H 4 :*+8<*6 :8;;23;42?
2;;5/.8,*</5/3. <./5E78-8 ,726*72H 1*;5=02,*G< ;<*<E2 "8;=78,* 2
*6=527*. 72 7/ ,D,8.H< =:*,7/723 4:2,D? %25529;* 2 IS, *
8-:*72A2,*G<;H *7*52186 F48786242 7* =:8,7/ >=74@23 98<:/+5/72H 2
985/178;<2. !/B/72/ 68./52 984*1D,*/<, A<8 9:2 1*.*7783 9852<24/
;=C/;<,=/< .25/66* 6/0.= =./B/,5/72/6 ,*5G<D 2 27>5H@2/3. 8<;=<;<,2/ 4:2,D? %25529;* 2 IS 8;<*I<;H ,8168078;<E .898572<E *7*521
!8;;23;483 F48786242 =AI<86 :/*5E78-8 8+6/778-8 4=:;* , :*64*?
68./5/3 5*:2.D, *52 2 /:<5/:* (Clarida e.a., 2001), * <*4 0/ *52 2
87*A/552 (Gali and Monacelli, 2005). <8 0/ ,:/6H , 8<52A2/ 8< 1*9*.7D?
*,<8:8,, ;5/.=/< 9:26/72<E =:*,7/72H ;88<,/<;<,=GC2/ :8;;23;426
:/*52H6, <8 /;<E, 7*9:26/:, 98<848,D3 98.?8. 9:2 89:/./5/722 :/*5E78-8
8+6/778-8 4=:;* ,6/;<8 7/984:D<8-8 9:8@/7<78-8 9*:2</<*. <./5E78-8
,726*72H <:/+=/< 2 @/5/,*H >=74@2H *74* !8;;22.
3. 3.1. :/.:*;98580/778;<E !8;;22 4 -855*7.;483 +85/172 8<6/A*/<;H
98,;/6/;<78, 7/ <85E48 , :*+8</ "8;=78,* 2 *6=527* (Sosunov and
Zamulin, 2007). CI , 2001 -8.=, 48-.* @/7D 7* 7/><E <85E48 7*A27*52
67
F(>,415 .. " &!$ " 7'89/, 22'7/545) (2001) +,2'2 )'-4B, 7,153,4+'=// 59458/9,2C45
D15453/>,8150 652/9/1/ ) :825)/F< 3'8?9'(4B< /49,7),4=/0 354,9'74B<
)2'89,0 4' 7B41, /45897'4450 )'2E9B. 93,>'258C, >95 .'3,+2,4/,
D15453/>,815*5 7589' 85)6'+',9 8 67,)B?,4/,3 59458/9,2C4B3/ =,4'3/
4,15*5 17/9/>,815*5 .4'>,4/F, 65D953: .'+'>,0 (B25 6589')2,45
8+,7-/)'4/, 7,'2C45*5 5(3,445*5 1:78'. 95 -, )7,3F 7589 3/75)B< =,4
4' 95)'7B 3/4,7'2C45-8B7C,)50 *7:66B, 8589')2F)?/< ) 2000 *5+: (52,,
6525)/4B 59 85)51:645*5 D186579' 588//, 567,+,2G445 51'.B)'2 +')2,4/,
4' )'2E94B0 1:78.
,?,4/,3
675(2,3B
F)/258C
85.+'4/,
)
2004
*5+:
89'(/2/.'=/5445*5 ;54+'. #,4' 675/.)5+/9,2F 89'2' ;/18/75)'4450. !,3
4, 3,4,,, 5(AG3B D186579' 675+52-'E9 7'89/ /, 82,+5)'9,2C45, 7'89,9
67/951 /45897'4450 )'2E9B.
. 1. .3,4,4/F M2 () % 1 67,+B+:@,3: *5+:, 2,)'F ?1'2') / 5(A,3
4,;9,*'.5)5*5 D186579' 588// (324.+522., 67')'F ?1'2') ) 2003-2007 **.
'1 651'.'45 4' 7/8.1, 8 2004 *. 7589 4,;9,*'.5)5*5 D186579'
85675)5-+',98F :),2/>,4/,3 9,365) 7589' +,4,-450 3'88B ('*7,*'9' 2)
.' /812E>,4/,3 2007 *5+'. '-, 67/ 4'2/>// 89'(/2/.'=/5445*5 ;54+'
)5.7'89'E@/, 65951/ /45897'4450 )'2E9B ) 588/E 85.+'E9 +')2,4/, 4'
/4;2F=/E / 5(3,44B0 1:78.
3.2. 582,+89)/F /4;2F=// ?/7515 /.),894B. %95 /81'-,4/F )
4'25*55(25-,4//, 84/-,4/, D;;,19/)4589/ ) 7,.:2C9'9, :<:+?,4/F
7'867,+,2,4/F 7,8:785), 97'4.'1=/544B, /.+,7-1/ /, ) 154=, 154=5),
4'7:?,4/, ;:41=// +,4,* 1'1 ,+/4/=B 8>G9'. 753, 95*5, 4,67,+)/+,44'F
68
D'=+304 .. " %!# " .3:1D<.D (1+=E8 -& 74'4/ 5+6+6&756+*+1+3.+ *4;4*4( . '4)&878(&,
4'+7<+3.(&+8 7'+6+,+3.D. 3& – 56.-3&0 3+78&'.1A3478., 54B8429
243+8&63@+ (1&78. 54 (7+29 2.69 +/ 8&0 4'+75404+3@.
84 ,+ (6+2D 54(@>+33@/ 75647 3& 69'1A (+*E8 0 +)4 906+51+3.C
48347.8+1A34 *69).; (&1C8. $::+08 8&04)4 9*464,&3.D ( 8+46..
3+4*34-3&=+3 . -&(.7.8 48 B1&78.=3478+/ B075468& . .25468&. !&0 56.
74'1C*+3.. 9714(.D &6>&11&-+63+6& 7=E8 8+09?.; 45+6&<./ 5&*&+8 56.
906+51+3.. (&1C8@. 64*908@, 564.-(4*.2@+ ( 786&3+, 78&34(D87D
48347.8+1A34 *464,+ . 8+6DC8 043096+38475474'3478A, B075468 8&0.;
84(&64( 92+3A>&+87D, 486&71. .; 564.-(4*D?.+ 3+798 548+6.. &0 (.*34 .6.7.2, (71+* -& 8+25&2. 9*464,&3.D (&1C8@ *(.,+87D 73.,+3.+
3+3+:8+)&-4(4)4 846)4(4)4 '&1&37&. )4 7&24+ 7.1A34+ 7406&?+3.+
7448(+878(9+8 3&.'41A>+29 9*464,&3.C (&1C8@ ( 2005 )4*9.
. 2. -2+3+3.D 6+&1A34)4 B::+08.(34)4 4'2+334)4 0967& (1+(&D >0&1&)
. 3+:8+)&-4(4)4 846)4(4)4 '&1&37& 477.. (56&(&D >0&1&) ( 2003-2007 )).
!&'1.<& 1 540&-@(&+8 =84, 3+72486D 3& 6478 564:.<.8& 846)4(4)4
'&1&37&, 6&-3478A 2+,*9 B07546842 . .2546842 ( 486&71D;, 3+ 7(D-&33@; 7
3+:8AC . )&-42, 486.<&8+1A3& . *+:.<.8 78&'.1A34 9(+1.=.(&+87D 7
(@7404/ 7046478AC. 71. 56+*5414,.8A, =84 <+3& 3& 3+:8A 6+-04 73.-.87D,
477.D
478&3+87D
7
3+)&8.(3@2
846)4(@2
'&1&3742,
.
3+043096+38475474'3@2. 486&71D2..
2003
!46)4(@/ '&1&37
59 860
2004
69
85 825
+- 3+:8+)&-4(4)4
B075468&
-13 860
-14 342
2005
2006
2007
118 364
139 269
130 915
-30 552
-51 492
-87 653
G*@.637 .. # ("' # !
1. "79,7+C2 *)4)6: 7::11 + 2003-2007 ,,., 546. -744. !&.
8):.61G ;)37,7 9)0+1;1G :7*C;12, +.97G;67, 1 87:4</141 87+7-75
3 9)0-.4.61F *F-/.;6C> -7>7-7+ 6) 6.=;.,)07+C. 1 897@1. 891
<:;)67+4.611 39.-1;67--.6./672 8741;131. 74.. ;7,7, + 84)6)>
%.6;9)4D67,7 )63) 7::11 6) 2008 ,7- 7=1?1)4D67 87:;<419<.;:G 0)-)@)
:,4)/1+)61G 9.031> 374.*)612 7*5.667,7 3<9:) «: <@H;75 6.7*>7-157:;1
:-.9/1+)61G 16=4G?1766C> 897?.::7+ 1 87--.9/)61G ?.67+72
3763<9.6;7:87:7*67:;1 7;.@.:;+.667,7 89710+7-:;+)» ()63 7::11, 2007).
3.3. #:;)67+4.66C2 ;9H>897?.6;6C2 791.6;19 -4G 97:;) 9.)4D67,7
E==.3;1+67,7 7*5.667,7 3<9:) – :)5C2 610312 0) 87:4.-61. 8G;D 4.;. :.9.-16. 2008 ,. 9.)4D6C2 E==.3;1+6C2 7*5.66C2 3<9: +C97: 6) 2.9% 87
7;67A.61F 3 -.3)*9F 2007 ,., + ;7 +9.5G 3)3 97:; 87;9.*1;.4D:31> ?.6
:7:;)+14 8.7% 0) )6)47,1@6C2 8.917-. 7--.9/1+)G -.AH+C2 9<*4D,
%.6;9)4D6C2 )63 :)5 +C0C+).; *74DA12 97:; -.6./672 5)::C 1,
:4.-7+);.4D67, 16=4G?11, ;)3 3)3 +C6</-.6 7*5.61+);D *74DA.
97::12:372 +)4F;C 6) 167:;9)66<F, @.5 891 87-797/)+A.5 9<*4..
3.4. )3 <3)0C+)47:D +CA., 57-.41 7;39C;72 E37675131, +34F@)FB1.
7*5.66C2 3<9:, +.:D5) 567,77*9)06C.
./. +:;9.@)F;:G :1:;.5C
<9)+6.612, ,-. +)4F;6C2 3<9: +34F@H6 + 391+<F $14418:). :;);DG> )41
1 76)@.441 (Gali and Monacelli, 2005) 1 4)91-C : :7)+;79)51 (Clarida
e.a., 2001) 76 + :7+73<867. 89.-47/.61. 6. 878)-).;, ;)3 3)3 761, 87 :<;1,
0)39C+)F; E3767513<, )6)41019<G 97:; ?.6 6) 5.:;6C. ;7+)9C +5.:;7
16=4G?11 87;9.*1;.4D:31> ?.6. 9)*7;)>, ,-. 9.)4D6C2 7*5.66C2 3<9:
+34F@H6 + 391+<F $1418:) – 3 8915.9<, + :;);D. 7*9C6:372 (2006), 76
89.-874),).;:G :4.-<FB15 897?.::< AR(1), @;7 6. 870+74G.; 87:;)+1;D .,7
+ :77;+.;:;+1. : 0)-)@)51 576.;)96C> +4):;.2 7::11.
:41 8C;);D:G 0)5.61;D :4<@)267. *4</-)61. :+G0DF 7*5.667,7
3<9:) : 897?.6;672 :;)+372 @.9.0 6.8739C;C2 897?.6;6C2 8)91;.;, ;7
@.9.0 6.,7, ) 0);.5 @.9.0 <9)+6.61. IS, + 391+<F $14418:) 878)-).; +C8<:3
1 16=4G?1G 89.-C-<B.,7 8.917-). 7:4.-7+);.4D67 +C9)/)G +C8<:31
89.-C-<B1> 8.917-7+, 6)>7-15, @;7 97:; <97+6G ?.6 0)+1:1; 7; 16=4G?11
+7 +:.> 89.-C-<B1> 8.917-)>. .A);D ;)37. <9)+6.61. 10+.:;6C51 56.
5.;7-)51 6. 89.-:;)+4G.;:G +7057/6C5. :874D07+)61. 87;737+7,7
87->7-) +5.:;7 6.8739C;7,7 897?.6;67,7 8)91;.;) + 789.-.4.611
+)4F;67,7 3<9:) +.-H; 3 ;72 /. 897*4.5.. :+G01 : E;15 891-H;:G
7;3)0);D:G 7; 1-.1 +34F@.61G +)4F;67,7 3<9:) + =<63?1F :7+73<867,7
70
F)?-526 .. # '"% # !
78-,36.-50F 0, 93-,;F 4-:6,; (30 0 65(?-330 (Gali and Monacelli, 2005),
09763C/6*(:C * 2(?-9:*- 05<3F>00 869: >-5 5( 4-9:5B- :6*(8B.
*0,; :6+6, ?:6 780 *B*6,- 05<3F>06556+6 9,*0+( 09763C/;E:9F
:63C26 ;8(*5-50F 280*61 $033079( 0 >-3-*(F <;52>0F >-5:8(3C56+6 )(52(,
8-(3C5B1 6)4-55B1 2;89 69:(G:9F *709(:C :63C26 * <;52>0E 76:-8C. (2
;.- )B36 6:4-?-56, D:6 966:*-:9:*;-: 6,561 0/ /(,(? 8699019261 28-,0:56,-5-.561 7630:020. &47080?-926- 0993-,6*(50- ,6*0?-526 0 68650561
(2004) :(2.- 46.-: 93;.0:C (8+;4-5:64 * 763C/; *23E?-50F *(3E:56+6
2;89( * >-3-*;E <;52>0E. *:68B 6>-5030 78(*036 28-,0:56-,-5-.561
7630:020 (52( 69900 * 8(/30?5B= 97->0<02(>0F=, 7804-5FF * :64 ?093,*;@(+6*B1 4-:6,B 5(04-5C@0= 2*(,8(:6* 0 6)6)AG55B1 4-:6,
464-5:6*. 8-/;3C:(:- )B3 9,-3(5 *B*6, 6 :64, ?:6 «,-5-.5B- *3(9:0
680-5:086*(309C 5( >-3-*B- /5(?-50F :8G= 6956*5B= 762(/(:-3-1 –
05<3F>00, :-476* D265640?-926+6 869:( 0 6)4-556+6 2;89(». 9=6,F 0/
D:6+6, 7809:;704 2 769:86-50E 5(@-1 46,-30.
4. 4.1. !3-,;F 36+02- 76*-9:*6*(50F, 5(?5G4 9 <;52>00 76:-8C. G )(/6*(F
*-890F, 9 26:6861 );,-: 786*6,0:C9F 98(*5-50- 7693- ;?G:( *(3E:56+6
2;89(, 04--: *0,:
(1)
(2 6:4-?(E: 3(80,(, (30 0 -8:3-8 (Clarida, e.a., 1999),
)63C@059:*6 0993-,6*(:-3-1 405040/08;E: 04-556 9;44; 2*(,8(:6*
6:2365-501 05<3F>00 5( 4-9:5B- :6*(8B It 0 8(/8B*( (t) 6:
966:*-:9:*;EA0= >-3-*B= /5(?-501 (Itt,IT). 864- :6+6, 6:-4)-8+ 0
;,<68, (Rotemberg and Woodford, 1999) 78-,69:(*030 <684(3C5B6)6956*(50F :(26+6 76,=6,( – *B8(.-50-, 9=6,56- 9 780*-,G55B4 *B@*B*6,0:9F 0/ 2*(,8(:0?56+6 780)30.-50F <;52>00 )3(+6969:6F50F,
6956*(5561 5( 763-/569:0.
9=6,F 0/ «956*5B= 5(78(*3-501 -,0561 +69;,(89:*-5561
,-5-.56-28-,0:561 7630:020 5( 2008 +6,» <;52>0E 93-,;-: ,676350:C
2*(,8(:64 6:2365-50F 0/4-5-50F 8-(3C56+6 D<<-2:0*56+6 6)4-556+6 2;89(
(
) 6: >-3-*6+6 /5(?-50F (
). ,5(26, 2(2 762(/(56 * 8()6:- *(56*61
(Ivanova, 2007), 8;)3C /5(?0:-3C56 6:2365F-:9F 6: -9:-9:*-556+6 /5(?-50F
8-(3C56+6 6)4-556+6 2;89(. :64; .- 8()6:( 9 ;86*5F40, ( 5- 9
6:2365-50F40 *(3E:56+6 2;89( 76:8-);-: 78-,7636.-50F 6 5-0/4-5569:0
76:-5>0(3C56+6 ;86*5F *B7;92(, ?:6 2(.-:9F 0/30@504.
71
E'=+304 .. # %"$ # !
'@+*.3+3.+ -&*&= 51&(34)4 9*464,&3.E 69'1E . 74;6&3+3.E
-&*&334)4 964(3E +)4 3+*44<+30. 86+'9+8 (01D=+3.E ( :930<.D 548+6B
<+386&1B34)4 '&30& <+1+(4)4 .-2+3+3.E 480143+3.E 6+&1B34)4 4'2+334)4
. *+7B 6&-6A( 6+&1B34)4 4'2+334)4
0967& 48 +78+78(+334)4 -3&=+3.E,
0967& 4'4-3&=+3 0&0
,
)*+
(2)
- +78+78(+33A/ 964(+3B 6+&1B34)4 4'2+334)4 0967&.
45413+33&E =1+342
, :930<.E 548+6B 56.3.2&+8 (.*:
(3)
&,*4+ 71&)&+24+ ( 5419=+3342 (A6&,+3.. 9234,+34 3& (+7,
56.*&(&+2A/ 480143+3.D 243+8&63A2. (1&78E2., 56. C842
.
3462.64(&3A 3& (+7 .3:1E<.4334/ 78&'.1.-&<...
4.2. !1+*9E (A(4*&2 &1. . 43&=+11. (Gali and Monacelli, 2005),
56+*5414,.2, =84 564.-(4*.8+1. 978&3&(1.(&D8 <+3A 7895+3=&84, 8&0, 0&0
45.7&1 &1B(4 (Calvo, 1983). 0&,*42 5+6.4*+ :.62& -&*&F8 34(9D <+39 7
, 3+-&(.7.24/ 48 (6+2+3., 564>+*>+)4 7 5471+*3+)4
(+64E83478BD
.-2+3+3.E <+3A. !448(+878(+334,
48 4'?+)4 =.71& :.62 2+3ED8
<+3A, & 478&(>.+7E
*+6,&8 .; 3& 56+,3+2 964(3+. !1+*9+8 482+8.8B, =84
:.62A, (A'.6&D?.+ 34(A+ <+3A, 978&34(E8 .; 4*.3&04(A2.. '4-3&=.2
.-2+3F33A/ 964(+3B <+3 =+6+-
. "4)*& ( 71+*9D?+2 5+6.4*+
(4)
7 (+64E83478BD
*1E k = 0,1,2… #78&3&(1.(&E 34(9D <+39, :.62&
2&07.2.-.69+8 4,.*&+2A/ 964(+3B 54840& *.(.*+3*4(:
(5)
56. 9714(.., =84 <+3& C::+08.(3&:
(6)
6. C842 342.3&1B3A+ 56+*+1B3A+ .-*+6,0. 6&(3A
(7)
72
E'=+304 .. " %!$ " )*+
– 342.3&1B3&E -&6&'483&E 51&8&,
– 8+;3414).E.
6+-91B8&8+ 458.2.-&<.. . *&1B3+/>.; 2&3.591E<./,
56+*78&(1+33A; ( 78&8B+ &1. . 43&=+11. (Gali and Monacelli, 2005),
.3:1E<.E 3& 6A30&; 2+783A; 84(&64( 6&(3&
(8)
3:1E<.E 56. C842 456+*+1+3& 0&0
(9)
84 +78B 0&0 14)&6.:2 4834>+3.E '9*9?+)4 . 8+09?+)4 964(3+/ <+3 3&
2+783A+ 84(&6A.
(10)
(A6&,&+87E =+6+- 9714(.E 846)4(1. . ( 6+-91B8&8+ 7478&(1E+8
(11)
=84 54*78&34(04/ ( .3:1E<.D 3& 2+783A+ 84(&6A 56.(4*.8 0
(12)
(13)
)*+
– 79'@+08.(3A/ :&0846 *.70438.64(&3.E. *+7B 8&0,+ 'A14
.7541B-4(&34 (A6&,+3.+ &1. . 43&=+11. (Gali and Monacelli, 2005),
7(E-&(>++ +78+78(+33A/ 964(+3B (3986+33+)4 (A5970&
7 .34786&33A2.
&5.>+2 5419=+334+ (A6&,+3.+ ( '41++ 9*4'342 (.*+:
(14)
3:1E<.E 3& 2+783A+ 84(&6A 5414,.8+1B34 -&(.7.8 48 8+09?+)4
6&-6A(& . 48 4,.*&+24)4 6478& 2+783A; <+3 ( 71+*9D?+2 5+6.4*+,
56. C842 2 3+ 56+(A>&+8 +*.3.<A.
4.3. *3& .- 474'+33478+/ 24+/ 24*+1. -&01D=&+87E ( .7541B-4(&3..
548404(4)4 54*;4*& 0 456+*+1+3.D 4'2+334)4 0967&. +72486E 3& 84, =84 (
74(6+2+33A; 24*+1E; =&?+ (7+)4 .7541B-9+87E 3+5406A8A/ 564<+383A/
5&6.8+8, ( 477.. (&1D83A/ 0967 456+*+1E+87E 7046++ 84(&644'464842
2+,*9 786&3&2., 3+,+1. 75+091E<.E2. 3& 6A30+ 4'2+3& (&1D8A. &0 (.*34
.- 6.7.3, 4'@F2 6A30& .34786&334/ (&1D8A 78&1 56+(A>&8B 79229 C075468&
. .25468& 84(&64( . 9719) 74(7+2 3+*&(34, ( 84 (6+2E 0&0 ( # 43
'41B>+ 84(&644'4648& 2+,*9 786&3&2. 54=8. ( 50 6&-.
73
?#9'/,0 .. ! . 3. #0204 40$"20$ * 53-5% * 0#:'. 2;/," */0342"//0+ $"->4; $
033**, 2003-2007 %%.
2'&10-"%"? $3-'& )" $"/0$0+ (2007), 940 12'&-0('/*' =,31024"
)"$*3*4 04 2'"-</0%0 0#.'//0%0 ,523" * &070&", " 31203 /" 2033*+3,*+
=,31024 "#30->4/0 =-"34*9'/, 12*40, &'/'% 04 120&"(* .'34/;7 40$"20$ )"
25#'( 2"$'/
Export revenues =
(15)
40 (' $2'.? 31203 /" $"->45, 012'&'-?'.;+ *.10240.,
3004$'434$5'4
Import expenditure =
*
(16)
– =40 520$/* 1042'#*4'-<3,*7 8'/ (.'34/;+ * )"25#'(/;+,
3004$'434$'//0), "
– /0.*/"-</;+ 0#.'//;+ ,523. 20-0%"2*6.*20$"$
2"$/0$'3*' /" 2;/,' */0342"//0+ $"->4;, 10-59"'.
(17)
%&' 34209/;' #5,$; 3004$'434$5>4 -0%"2*6.".. 0 012'&'-'/*> 2'"-</;+
0#.'//;+ ,523 2"$'/
74
A%;)1.2 .. ! # " !
(18)
;62 & /2'$4,80$9
(19)
/)(2&$6)/>12,
(20)
&)(B0 .2?88,:,)16
(21)
1$92(A<,-5A & 2%4$612- +$&,5,0256, 5 $%52/@61=0, &)/,;,1$0,
?/$56,;1256)- 53425$ 1$ ,03246 32 4)$/>1207 2%0)11207 .7457
34)(/2*)1,A ?.53246$ 32 4)$/>1207 2%0)11207 .7457
. $.*) .2?88,:,)16
1$ ,03246 32 (292(7
,
, 32 (292(7
32/2*,6)/>12 5&A+$1 5 ?/$56,;1256>@ 53425$
. 4)+7/>6$6),
(22)
56)56&)11=- 4)$/>1=- 2%0)11=- .745 5226&)656&)112 4$&)1:
(23)
=;,6$A (23) ,+ (22), 32/7;$)0, ;62
(24)
+0)1)1,) & 26./21)1,, 4)$/>12'2 2%0)112'2 .745$
)56)56&)112'2 742&1A 342324:,21$/>12 ,+0)1)1,@ & 4$+4=&) :
26
(25)
5. 5.1. 2/7;)11=9 & 34)(=(7<)0 4$+()/) 74$&1)1,- &32/1) 9&$6,6 (/A
1$92*()1,A ,18/A:,2112'2 5(&,'$. 2 34)*(), ;)0 &=&2(,6> )'2 34,
34)(/2*)112- :)/)&2- 871.:,, $1.$ 255,,, 32/7;,0 +1$;)1,) 50)<)1,A
(/A %2/)) ;$562 &564);$@<)-5A 53):,8,.$:,,. 21)6$41=) &/$56,
0,1,0,+,47@6 326)4,
Loss =
(26)
75
A&;*2/3 .. $# 45- 3(5%2-;*2--, '=5%+*2231 /5-'3. !-00-46%:
(27)
%4312-1, ;73
– ?73 5367 :*2 2% 1*672=* 73'%5= - 2-/%/3. 6'A,-
6 3&1*22=1 /85631 85%'2*2-A 2* -1*@7.
9351-53'%' 0%(5%2+-%2
(28)
2%.)B1 8603'-A 4*5'3(3 435A)/%:
(29)
(30)
(31)
76@)% 60*)8*7, ;73
(32)
(33)
(34)
"%672=1 5*<*2-*1 4308;*223(3 5%,236723(3 85%'2*2-A A'0A*76A
(35)
60- 45*)4303+-7> 3768767'-* )-6/327-53'%2-A 3+-)%*13.
-290A:-- ' /5-'3. !-00-46% (2 = 1), 73 5*,80>7%7 )0A 347-1%0>23.
-290A:-- 6337'*767'8*7 4308;*22318 0%5-)3., %0- - *570*531 (Clarida
e.a., 1999):
(36)
76
@%;)1.2 .. #" 18/@:,211=) 5(&,'
2%4$+7)65@ 34, 34)&=<)1,, &=375.20
5&2)'2 326)1:,$/>12'2 +1$;)1,@, 34@02 +$&,5,6 26 &)5$, 34,($&$)02'2
&=375.7 & 871.:,, 326)4>, , 2%4$612 – 26 1$./21$ .4,&2- !,//,35$.
5.2. 2*12 34)(32/2*,6>, ;62 :)/)&2) ,+0)1)1,) 26./21)1,@ 4)$/>12'2
2%0)112'2 .745$ 26 )56)56&)112'2 +1$;)1,@ 6$.*) 5.$*)65@ 1$
,18/@:,21120 5(&,'). 8240,47)0 $'4$1*,$1 5 7;A620 12&253):,8,.$:,, :)/)&2- 871.:,, , &=&)()11=9 4$1)) 2'4$1,;)1,-: .4,&2!,//,35$ , 74$&1)1,@ (/@ 234)()/)1,@ ,+0)1)1,@ 4$+4=&$ 4)$/>12'2
&$/?612'2 .745$. 2+>0A0 2*,($1,@ & 3)4,2() t 26 &5)'2 &=4$*)1,@ (37):
(37)
=3,<)0 75/2&,@ 3)4&2'2 324@(.$:
(38)
(39)
(40)
(41)
(42)
+ 74$&1)1,@ (40) 32/7;$)0
(43)
)4)3,<)0 & 3)4,2( (t-1) 32/7;)112) ,+ (41) &=4$*)1,) (/@ xt-1.
.20%,1,42&$& 4)+7/>6$6 5 74$&1)1,)0 (42), 1$92(,0 ,+0)1)1,) 4)$/>12'2
&$/?612'2 .745$, &=4$*)112) ;)4)+ ,18/@:,?:
(44)
2;)6$@ 1$-()112) 5 (43) 32/7;$)0
77
E(>,415 .. " &!% " (45)
159575, ) 153(/4'=// 8 (39) +'F9
(46)
53,89/) 652:>,445, ) (38) / :345-/) 4'
, /3,,3
(47)
,7,6/8') :7')4,4/, 4' 6,7/5+ )6,7F+, 67/<5+/3 1 7'.4589453:
:7')4,4/D ) 6,7/5+'< t, t+1 / t+2 (48):
(48)
$'8945, 7,?,4/, 8589')2E,9
(49)
75+52-'E 67/+,7-/)'9B8E 3,95+' 7,?,4/E 2'7/+A, '2/ /
,792,7' (Clarida e.a., 1999), )82,+ .' :+;7,4+53 / /4*53 (Goodfriend and
King, 1997), 67,+25-/)?/3/ 4, +/81549/75)'9B 5-/+',3:D /4;2E=/D )
17/)50 #/22/68' 67/ 4'<5-+,4// /4;2E=/5445*5 8+)/*', 65+89')/3 )
)A7'-,4/, c2 7')4A0 ,+/4/=,. 9'153 82:>',
(50)
8652B.5)'4/, C95*5 67,+6525-,4/E 9'1-, 65.)52E,9 8517'9/9B
)A12'+1/ 67/ 4'<5-+,4// 5(@,*5 7,?,4/E. "7')4,4/, 8)5+/98E 1
(51)
/817/3/4'49 7'),4
D=
(52)
/ 5(@/3 7,?,4/,3 (:+,9 8559),989),445:
78
B%;)1.2 .. #" (53)
>4$*)1,) & 5.2%.$9 534$&$, 2;)&,(12, 34)&><$)6 )(,1,:7,
32@6207 ,592(B ,+ 34)(325>/.,, ;62
, .2@88,:,)16 A2 (2/*)1
%>6? 4$&)1 17/A. 62 *) &4)0B $%52/A612) +1$;)1,) 0)1?<)'2 .241B
'202')112'2 74$&1)1,B /)*,6 & ,16)4&$/) (0%1), 6$. .$. ;,5/,6)/? 0)1?<)
+1$0)1$6)/B:
(54)
)<$B 1)4$&)156&2, 1$92(,0, ;62
(55)
,, 5/)(2&$6)/?12,
(56)
;62 &)412 (/B ($11>9 3$4$0)642&.
4)+7/?6$6), 56$:,21$412) 4)<)1,) 02*12 +$3,5$6?, .$.
(57)
18/B:,B 34)&><$)6 :)/)&2- 742&)1? ,, & 26/,;,) 26 5/7;$B
,18/B:,2112'2 5(&,'$ & +$.4>62- @.2120,.), 6$4')6,42&$1,) ,+0)1)1,B
4)$/?12'2 2%0)112'2 .745$ &>+>&$)6 (232/1,6)/?12) 50)=)1,) 1$
. 12, .$. , & 5/7;$) 5 :)/)&>0 34)&><)1,)0 326)1:,$/?12'2
&>375.$, 1$92(,65B & 264,:$6)/?12- &+$,025&B+, 5 1$./2120 .4,&2!,//,35$, $ 6$.*) 34B02 +$&,5,6 26 &)5$, 34,($&$)02'2 6$4')6,47)023)4)0)112-. 2/)) 62'2, ;,5/,6)/? 32012*)1 1$ 3$4$0)64 2%4$61>@/$56,;1256, &>375.$ 32 4)$/?1207 2%0)11207 .7457. 1 02*)6 .$.
7&)/,;,6?, 6$. , 70)1?<,6? ,18/B:,211>- 5(&,', 5&B+$11>- 5 :)/)&>0
+1$;)1,)0 ,+0)1)1,B 4$+4>&$ 4)$/?12'2 2%0)112'2 .745$.
79
!H+A/748 . . $ ! )#' $!"
"<82<
.8+*,2<E,
A<8
+/1
9:/.98580/72H
8+
8<;=<;<,22
, 27>5H@2H 2 ;.,2-2 +D52 +D
.2;487<2:8,*72H, <8 /;<E 9:2
7/678-8 =6/7EB/7D, <*4 4*4 17*6/7*</5E , ,D:*0/722 :*,78,/;78-8
17*A/72H :8;<* =:8,7H @/7 +D5 +D =,/52A/7 7*
. 8;485E4=
(58)
,/;* ,<8:8-8 2 <:/<E/-8 ;5*-*/6D? =6/7EB*<;H. 8;<*5E786, * 26/778 ,
,D,8./ ;<*@287*:78;<2 8+C/-8 :/B/72H, :/1=5E<*<D +=.=< *7*58-2A7D.
6. 25/66* 6/0.= 1*.*A*62 ;720/72H 27>5H@22 2 ;<*+2521*@22
:/*5E78-8 8+6/778-8 4=:;* 7*52@8. !8;< @/7 7* 6/;<7D/ <8,*:D
=;252,*/<;H, /;52 687/<*:7D/ ,5*;<2 1*.*G<;H @/5EG =./B/,2<E ,*5G<=.
81724*/< .898572</5E78/ ;6/C/72/ 986268 8<6/A/7783 4*4 *::8 2
8:.8786 (Barro and Gordon, 1983), <*4 2 5*:2.83, *52 2 /:<5/:86
(Clarida e.a., 1999) 27>5H@22, ,D1,*7783 9:/,DB/72/6 ,D9=;486 ;,8/-8
/;</;<,/778-8 17*A/72H. !*;;68<:26 78,8/ ;5*-*/68/,
;52
, 98.:8+7//.
+85EB/ 7=5H – 9*./72/ @/7D 6/;<783 ,*5G<D 9:82;?8.2<
8<78;2</5E78 /;</;<,/778-8 17*A/72H. 8;485E4= 8;5*+5/72/ ,*5G<D ,/.I<
4 :8;<= 4874=:/7<8;98;8+78;<2 6/;<7D? <8,*:8,, <8:-8,D3 +*5*7;
=5=AB*/<;H, :*;<I<. (<8 .85078 +D<E 8<:*0/78 , 985802</5E786
. $,/52A/72/ 8<4587/72H 8< 98</7@2*5E78-8 =:8,7H
48F>>2@2/7</
;89:8,80.*/<;H :8;<86 27>5H@22 – F<* .25/66* 98;<=52:=/<;H
7/84/37;2*7;483 4:2,83 %25529;*. !8;< ,D9=;4* <:/+=/< .898572</5E7D?
:/;=:;8,, A<8 ;4*1D,*/<;H , 21+D<8A786 ;9:8;/ 7* 72? 2 ,/.I< 4
=,/52A/72G 2? ;<8268;<2. ;5/. 1* F<26 :*;<I< 2 =:8,/7E @/7. *4587
4:2,83 %25529;* 985802</5/7. *4 2 9:/.;4*1D,*/< ,D:*0/72/ .5H
89<26*5E783 27>5H@22, @/5/,8/ =./B/,5/72/ ,*5G<D ,5/AI< 1* ;8+83 :8;<
@/7.
!*16/: F>>/4<* ,8 678-86 1*,2;2< 8< 48F>>2@2/7<*
(59)
*77D? 8+ F4;98:<7D? 2 2698:<7D? F5*;<2A78;<H? , !8;;22 7*A*5*
XXI ,/4* 7/678-8, 7*2+85// 98.:8+7*H :*+8<* ,D9857/7* *./0.83
,*78,83 (Ivanova, 2007). ;,8/3 :*+8</ 87* 985=A*/< ;5/.=GC2/
17*A/72H. &/78,*H F5*;<2A78;<E ;9:8;* 7* 2698:< , *+;85G<786 17*A/722
80
H*@.637 .. # ("& # !
:7:;)+4H.; 0.74, ) 89.-47/.61H F3:879;) – 0.117. '4):;1@67:;1 87 -7>7-<
9)+6D, :77;+.;:;+.667, 1.246 1 1.716. +;79 6)>7-1;, @;7 9.0<4E;); 4./1; +
7-675 -1)8)076. : 9)6.. 874<@.66D51 7?.63)51 F4):;1@67:;1 :897:) 6)
15879;, :9.-1 37;79D> 1::4.-7+)61H .26>)9;) (Reinhart, 1995) 1
!.6>)-/1 (Senhadji, 1997) -4H 9)0+1+)GB1>:H :;9)6, ) ;)3/.
.475.:;67+72 (Belomestnova, 2002). .:57;9H 6) 6.37;79D. <:47/6.61H +
789.-.4.611 )+;7975 9.)4E67,7 7*5.667,7 3<9:) -4H 15879;) 1 F3:879;),
89.-8747/15, @;7 7?.631 +)67+72 (2007) 57,<; 0)5.61;E 1:375D.. "7,-)
(60)
)>7/-.61. 6.87:9.-:;+.667 9)05.9) 16=4H?17667,7 :-+1,) *<-.;
;)3/. 0)+1:.;E 7; 6)3476) 6.73.26:1)6:372 391+72 $14418:), 7; +.:)
891-)+).57,7 576.;)96D51 +4):;H51 105.6.61H5 + 9.)4E675 7*5.6675
3<9:. 1 7; <97+6H .,7 7;3476.61H 7; .:;.:;+.667,7 06)@.61H. )>7/-.61.
87:4.-6.,7 ;9.*<.; 87467,7 87+;79.61H 9)*7;D +)67+72 (2007), @;7
H+4H.;:H, 87 :<;1, 7;-.4E6D5 1::4.-7+)61.5. )3476 6.73.26:1)6:372
391+72 $14418:) -4H 7::11 ;)3/. 6. 789.-.4I6, 67 .,7 57/67 7/1-);E 6)
<97+6. 0.3, @;7 :77;+.;:;+<.; 7?.63)5 -4H 1;)H 1 %+.?11 (Bolt and Van
Els, 2000; Scheibe and Vines, 2005). :41 89.-874),);E, @;7 576.;)96D.
+4):;1 891-)G; 7-16)37+D2 +.: 105.6.61G 9.)4E67,7 7*5.667,7 3<9:) 1
16=4H?11, ;7 0)84)6197+)667. 105.6.61. 7;3476.61H *<-.; 15.;E
-.:H;139);6D2 F==.3; 6) 97:; ?.6. .0 06)61H +.:7+, .:;.:;+.66D> <97+6.2
1 6)3476) 391+72 $14418:) @1:4.66D. +D+7-D 6. 15.G; 89)3;1@.:37,7
06)@.61H. -6)37, .:41 89.-8747/1;E 6.105.66D2 9)+67+.:6D2 <97+.6E
9.)4E67,7 7*5.667,7 3<9:), 6.105.667:;E 37F==1?1.6;7+, ) ;)3/. <:47+1.
)9A)44)-.96.9), 57/67 0)34G@1;E, @;7 + 2008 ,7-< :4.-<.; 7/1-);E
*74EA.2 16=4H?11, ;)3 3)3 7*CH+4.66D2 <97+.6E <-797/)61H +)4G;D +
2008 ,7-< 61/., @.5 + 89.-D-<B1. ,7-D 1 :7:;)+4H.; 3% + :9)+6.611 : 4%
1 5% -4H 2006 1 2007 ,7-7+ :77;+.;:;+.667.
6.1. 9.-:;)+4.66)H 57-.4E 7;39D;72 F37675131 891+67:1; 67+<G
8.9.5.66<G + ?.4.+<G =<63?1G ?.6;9)4E67,7 *)63), -78746H.; )6)410
67+D5 +)91)6;75 789.-.4.61H +)4G;67,7 3<9:), >)9)3;.96D5 -4H 7::11,
67 <8<:3).; 6.37;79D. -9<,1. +)/6D. 7:7*.667:;1 97::12:372 F37675131.
9./-. +:.,7 6.7*>7-157 897+.:;1 @1:4.66D2 )6)410, +0H+ 0) 7:67+<, 3
8915.9<, 9)*7;< +)67+72 (2007). ")3/. +:4.- 0) !7:<67+D5 1 )5<416D5
(2006) 57/67 9)0+1;E 9)*7;< +34G@.61.5 + )6)410 16:;9<5.6;) 6)3784.61H
9.0.9+7+, :+H0)+ 7*5.66D2 3<9: : 105.6.61.5 -.6./672 5)::D. !4.-<.;
10<@1;E +41H61. 891+6.:I66D> 105.6.612 6) 16:;9<5.6;D 39.-1;67-.6./672 8741;131, 89.-47/1;E 78;15)4E6D2 <97+.6E 897?.6;672 :;)+31,
81
C&<*2/3 .. ! $ # !
65%'2-7@ 45-1*2*2-* 5%,0-<2?: 45%'-0 132*7%523. 430-7-/-. 63&*223
-27*5*623, - ' 73 +* '5*1C 758)3D1/3, &8)*7 '?'*67- -290C;-322?. 6)'-(
)0C -2)*/6% 4375*&-7*0@6/-: ;*2, '/0B<-' ' /5-'8B "-00-46% 3&1*22?.
/856 - 4*5*1*22?* ,%58&*+2?: 5?2/3'. %/+* 673-7 453'*67- %2%0-, 4545*)4303+*2--, <73 '%0B72?. /856 345*)*0C*76C 2*43/5?7?1 453;*272?1
4%5-7*731.
7. 5%&37* &?0% 5%661375*2% 453&0*1% 347-1%0@23. /5*)-723)*2*+23. 430-7-/-. 93/86-53'%'=-6@ 2% '?'3)* 347-1%0@23. -290C;--,
1? 45-1*2-0- 2*3/*.26-%26/-. 43):3) ' 436753*2-- 13)*0-. 531* 73(3,
&?0 6)*0%2 5C) ,2%<-7*0@2?: -,1*2*2-. ' ;*0*'3. 982/;-- - ' 85%'2*2--,
345*)*0CB>-1 '%0B72?. /856. 982/;-B 437*5@ 132*7%52?: '0%67*. '
6337'*767'-- 6 ,%)%<%1- %2/% 366-- &?0% )3&%'0*2% 4*5*1*22%C
-,1*2*2-C 37/032*2-C 5*%0@23(3 3&1*223(3 /856% 37 *67*67'*223(3
,2%<*2-C. %1 '%0B72?. /856 1? 45*)4303+-0- 345*)*0C*1?1 '
6337'*767'-- 6 4373/3'?1 1*73)31, 73 *67@ 453435;-32%0@2?1
63'3/842318 '?486/8.
*=*2-* 13)*0- 43/%,%03, <73 )0C ,%)%22?: 85%'2*2-. 347-1%0@2%C
-290C;-C 2% 1*672?* 73'%5? 45*'?=%*7 ;*0*'3. 853'*2@ 2% '*0-<-28,
,%'-6C>8B 37 ;*0*'3(3 5%,5?'% - ;*0*'3(3 -,1*2*2-C 37/032*2-C
5*%0@23(3 3&1*223(3 /856% 37 5%'23'*623(3 853'2C. 3A99-;-*27 454360*)2*1 5%67D7 6 8'*0-<*2-*1 '*6%, 45-)%'%*13(3 '%0B72318 /8568,
4%)%*7 45- '3,5%67%2-- 2%/032% 2*3/*.26-%26/3. /5-'3. "-00-46%, %
7%/+* ,%'-6-7 37 A0%67-<2367*. A/64357% - -14357% 43 '%0B72318 /8568 )3:3)8. 6337'*767'-- 6 4%5%1*75%1-, 2%.)*22?1- )0C 366--,
/3A99-;-*27,
,%'-6C>-.
37
A0%67-<2367*.,
875%-'%*7
A99*/7
7%5(*7-53'%2-C 5*%0@23(3 3&1*223(3 /856%.
6'C,- 6 2*345*)*0D22367@B *67*67'*223(3 ,2%<*2-C 5*%0@23(3
3&1*223(3 /856%, 4%5%1*753' /5-'3. 63'3/8423(3 45*)03+*2-C - '*63' '
;*0*'3. 982/;-- ' 366-- /30-<*67'*22?. %2%0-, )34302-7*0@23(3
61*>*2-C 5367% ;*2 367%06C 2% -00B675%7-'231 853'2*. %&37% 13(0% &?
&?7@ )34302*2% 873<2*2-*1 8/%,%22?: 2*-,'*672?:, '/0B<*2-*1
-267581*27% 2%/340*2-C 5*,*5'3', % 7%/+* %2%0-,31 -290C;-- 45)348>*2--, <73 3&1*22?. /856 345*)*0C*76C 2*43/5?7?1 453;*272?1
4%5-7*731. 3'%C 64*;-9-/%;-C ;*0*'3. 982/;-- 37/5?'%*7 =-53/-*
(35-,327? )0C )%0@2*.=-: -660*)3'%2-..
82
#" ! .. 1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
Artus J., Knight M. (1984) “Issues in the Assessment of the Exchange Rates
of Industrial Countries”. International Monetary Fund Working Paper $ 29.
Barro R., Gordon D. (1983) “A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a
Natural Rate Model”. Journal of Political Economy, 91, pp. 589–610.
Belomestnova A. (2002) “Estimation of Demand Functions for Imports in
Russia”. Moscow, New Economic School Master’s dissertation.
Bernanke B., Blinder A. (1992). “The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels
of Monetary Transmission”. American Economic Review, 82, pp. 901–921.
Bernanke B., Mishkin F. (1997) “Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for
Monetary Policy?” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11, pp. 97–116.
Bolt W., Van Els P.J.A. (2000) “Output Gap and Inflation in the EU”. De
Nederlandsche Bank report.
Calvo G. (1983) “Staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework”.
Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, pp. 129-152.
Clarida R., Gali J., Gertler M. (1999) “The Science of Monetary Policy: A
New Keynesian Perspective”. Journal of Economic Literature, 37, pp. 1661–
1707.
Clarida R., Gali J., Gertler M. (2001) “Optimal Monetary Policy in Open
Versus Closed Economies: an Integrated approach”. NBER Working Paper
$8604.
Devereux M., Engel C. (2000) “Monetary policy in the open economy
revisited: price setting and exchange rate flexibility”. NBER Working Paper
$7665.
Dobrynskaya V. (2006) “The Optimal Monetary Policy under Incomplete
Pass-through and Asymmetric Price Rigidity”. SU-HSE Dissertation.
Frankel J., Chinn M. (1995) “The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP
Rule”. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2, pp. 318-334.
Froyen R., Guender A. (2000) “Alternative Monetary Policy for Small Open
Economies”. Review of International Economics, 8, pp. 721-740.
Gali J. (1992) “How Well Does the IS/LM Model Fit Post-War U.S. Data?”
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 92, pp. 709–838.
Gali J., Monacelli T. (2005) “Optimal Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate
Volatility in a Small Open Economy”. Review of Economic Studies, 72, pp.
707-734.
Ivanova N. (2007) “Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in
Russia: Trade-Balance approach”. CEFIR / NES Working Paper $ 102.
Poole W. (1970) “Optimal Choice of monetary Policy Instruments in a
Simple Stochastic Macro Model”. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84, pp.
197-216.
83
A(=,415 .. # &"$ # !
18. Reinhart C. (1995) “Devaluation, Relative Prices and International Trade”.
IMF Staff Papers, 42(2).
19. Romer C., Romer D. (1989) “Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in
the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz”. NBER WP D 2966.
20. Rotemberg J., Woodford M. (1999) “Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated
Sticky Price Model”. In: J.B.Taylor (ed.). Monetary Policy Rules, NBER
(Business Cycles series).
21. Scheibe J., Vines D. (2005) “A Phillips Curve for China”. Australian
National University Centre for Economic Policy Research CAMA Working
Paper D 2.
22. Senhadji A. (1997) “Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand
Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis”. IMF Working Paper D 97/132.
23. Sosunov K., Zamulin O. (2007) “Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with
Dutch Disease”. CEFIR / NES Working Paper D 101.
24. Taylor J. (1993) “Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice”. CarnegieRochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, pp. 195–214.
25. Williams J. (1997) “Simple Rules for Monetary Policy”. Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve Board, Washington DC.
26. '41 588// (2007) “845)4>, 4'67')2,4/A ,+/450 *58:+'789),4450
+,4,-45-17,+/9450
652/9/1/
4'
2008
*5+”.
(http://www.cbr.ru/today/publications_reports/).
27. +5)/=,415 ., 5754/4' . (2004) “7')/2' +,4,-45-17,+/9450
652/9/1/ '41' 588// 54857</:3 @15453/=,81/; /882,+5)'4/0 /
5(7'.5)'4/A”. ':=4>0 +512'+ D 04/09.
28. 22'7/545) . (2001) “%15453/=,81'A 652/9/1' ) :825)/A; 5917>950
@15453/1/ 85 .4'=/9,2?4>3 8>7?,)>3 8,195753” (http://www.polit.ru).
29. :7')2B) !. (2008) “,95+ ,74'41, 35-,9 4, 87'(59'9?”. %186,79, 19.
84
