ЯОГ: ядерные программы, военные доктрины, политика в

NWS
Nuclear Weapon States: NW
Programmes, Military
Doctrines and Nonproliferation
Ildar A. Akhtamzyan, Ph.D, Associate
Professor of MGIMO-University
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Main Points
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1. Nuclear Weapon States: definition, NW
use and its consequences, arms race cost,
development of NW in the US and the SU
2. NW programme of the UK, political
aspects
3. NW of France, political aspects
4. NW of China, political aspects
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1. Nuclear Weapon States (NWS)
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NWS Definition (NPT Article IX.3) and its
Political Meaning
Development of NW in the US and the SU
Nuclear Arms Race: Dynamics and Cost
NW Deployment
NW Use and Its Consequences, Nuclear
Night and Nuclear Winter
Range of NW as a Criterion for Its
Classification
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The Mightiest ManMade NonNuclear
Explosion: TNT
2,67-2,7 kiloton
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Halifax Explosion: December
6, 1917
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―A Cosmic Roll of the
Dice!‖
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1. Hiroshima and Nagasaki – consequences of
limited NW use
2. Practical parallels to nuclear catastrophe:
nonnuclear explosions, fire storms, eruptions
and explosions of volcanoes, sand storms on the
Mars
Mathematical models: nuclear night and nuclear
winter
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Soviet
Pamphlet,
April 1962
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12
Krakatau,
August 26-27,
1883
Anak
Krakatau:
since June 11,
1925
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Tambora, April 5, 1815
14
Development of U-Bomb in
Nazi Germany
15
Werner
Heisenberg
December 6,
1939: The
Possibility of
Getting Energy
By Splitting
Uranium
16
Otto Hahn and Werner
Heisenberg
Otto Hahn German Physicist, 1945 Nobel
Prize Winner
Werner
Heisenberg,
German Physicist,
1932 Nobel Prize
Winner , one of the
Project’s Main
Coordinators
17
Dr Meitner gets excited
18
Walther Bohte
(1891-1957) –
shared the Nobel
Prize in Physics in
1954 with Max
Born
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US Nuclear Weapons: the
Brains

A-Bomb
– Leslie R. Groves, J. Robert Oppenheimer

H-Bomb
– Stanislaw Ulam, Edward Teller, Richard
Garwin
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Einstein’s Letter to Roosevelt,
August 2, 1939
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Roosevelt’s
Reply
28
J. Robert
Oppenheimer
Роберт
Оппенгеймер –
Los-Alamos
Laboratory
Director (1942October 1945)
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31
H-Bomb (thermonuclear
weapons)
Edward Teller –
«H-Bomb Father»

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US nuclear testing sites
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―Gadget‖ on
the tower
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
General Groves’
Report of July 18,
1945 on the first
nuclear explosion:
―And what an
explosion!‖
36
Harry S. Truman
(in 1953) on
Stalin’s reaction
in July 1945 in
Potsdam: «I’m
sure he did not
understand its
significance»
The Order to
Bomb
Hiroshima and
Nagasaki
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―Merciful‖ decision to bomb
Hiroshima

I reaffirm the late
President Roosevelt’s
decision that Japan
must surrender
unconditionally… If we
end this war with one
quick blow it will save
countless thousands of
American boys and will
be more merciful than
the devastation of
Japan. We will have to
use the Atom bomb!
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The United States – nine types of bombs
and warheads: B83 bombs
Nuclear Warheads in Storage
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Bangor, WA: 2364
Warren AFB, WY: 39 US Nukes
Warren AFB, CO: 46 Deployment,
Warren AFB, NE: 85
Malmstrom AFB, MT: 535
Minot AFB, ND: 1254
Whiteman AFB, MO: 136
Nellis AFB, NV: 902
Kirtland AFB, NM: 1914
Barksdale AFB, LA: 940
Kings Bay, GA: 1364
+Pantex Plant, TX: several
warhead types
2006
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Soviet Nuclear Weapons:
Who Did It

A-Bomb
– Igor Kurchatov (Игорь Курчатов), Yuli
Khariton (Юлий Харитон), Boris Vannikov
(Борис Ванников), Avraami Zavenyagin
(Авраамий Завенягин)

H-Bomb
– Andrey Saharov (Андрей Сахаров), Юлий
Харитон, Yakov Zeldovich (Яков Зельдович)
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Фрагмент фрески на вокзале
(Екатеринбург). В центре
Курчатов, Берия, Королѐв.
На фоне — Белоярская АЭС.
Справа — падающий Пауэрс
Igor Kurchatov (also with a beard)
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Boris Vannikov, Avraami
Zavenyagin
Yuli Khariton
Igor Kurchatov and Klaus
Fuchs
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Klaus Fuchs and a Sketch of
Design in his 1948 Report
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Ukas of October 29, 1949 г.:
Heroes of Socialist Labour
1. Курчатов Игорь Васильевич
 2. Харитон Юлий Борисович
 3. Завенягин Авраамий Павлович
 4. Зельдович Яков Борисович
 5. Ванников Борис Львович
 6. Щѐлкин Кирилл Иванович
 7. Флѐров Георгий Николаевич
 8. Духов Николай Леонидович

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Letter of
Appreciation,
November
1949
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Ukas of June 15, 1996: Heroes
of Russia
1. Барковский Владимир Борисович
 2. Квасников Леонид Романович
 3. Феклисов Александр Семѐнович
 4. Яцков Анатолий Антонович
 5. Коэн Леонтина
 (6. Коэн Моррис – Герой России с 1995 г.)

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What Yuli
Khariton wanted
from the first ABomb
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The First
Soviet
Nuclear
test –
August
29, 1949
The First
Soviet HBomb
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How many nukes are there?
128000 nukes produced in the NWS over
1945-2000
 USA: 70000 nukes of 65 types
 USSR/Russia: 55000 nukes
 UK: 1200 nukes
 France: 1260 nukes
 China: 750 nukes
 (After NRDC Nuclear Notebook)

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Nuclear Arms Race
Создание и испытание первой атомной бомбы
Начало развѐртывания тяжѐлых бомбардировщиков
Первый взрыв термоядерной бомбы (устройства)
Первое испытание межконтинентальной ракеты
Начало развѐртывания межконтинентальных ракет
Начало развѐртывания АПЛ с баллистическими
ракетами
Начало развѐртывания баллистических ракет с РГЧ
ИН
Начало развѐртывания крылатых ракет «воздух-земля»
большой дальности
Начало развѐртывания крылатых ракет морского
базирования большой дальности
Начало развѐртывания крылатых ракет наземного
базирования большой дальности
Начало развѐртывания мобильных баллистических
годы
США
1945
1948
1952
(устройство
)
1958
СССР
1949
1955
1953
(бомба)
1959
1960
1970
1980
1957
1960
1963
1975
1984
1982
1984
1983
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US Nukes – Cost. 5,500 Billion USD
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US Nukes Deployment
US Nukes are deployed in 5 states:
Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey,
FRG
 In Cold War years US Nukes were
deployed in at least 12 states more
(Canada, Cuba, Denmark, France,
Greece, Japan, Maroc, the Philippines,
ROK, Spain, Taiwan-China, the UK) 38 types

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US Nukes Worldwide
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A Model of a New York
Explosion
300 Nuclear Strikes – Death
of NATO’s 25% Population
(189 Million)
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368 Nuclear Strikes – Death of
25% of China’s Population
(320 Million)
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How Much is Enough?
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SIPRI in June 2013

Eight Nuclear Weapon States possessed
in 2013 4400 deployed nukes (without
TNF): the U.S. (2150), Russia (1800), the
UK (160), France (290), China, as well as
India, Pakistan and Israel.
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2. The UK Nukes: History
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1. Quebec Agreement (August 1943), the
terms
2. GEN-75 (1945) - GEN-163 (1947)
3. January 7, 1948 Agreement
4. US Deployments in the UK
5. The First Nuclear Test, October 3,
1952 (Plutonium Bomb)
"we have got to have this thing over here whatever it costs... we have got
to have bloody Union Jack on top of it..."
Words by the then Foreign Secretary, Ernest Bevin, in 1946
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March 1940
Memorandum
Рудольф
Пайерлс,
немецкий
физик
Отто Фриш,
австрийский
физик
Two reports of Maud Committee in July 1945:
The First one, On the Use of Uranium for a Bomb
stated that the new weapon could be produced by the
end of 1943. The last paragraph said: '...the scheme
for a uranium bomb is practicable and likely to lead
to decisive results in the war'.
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Nukes of the UK: the Brains
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
A-Bomb: William G. Penney, John
Cockroft, Christopher Hinton
H-Bomb: William Cook, Bryan Taylor,
John Corner, Keith Roberts
John Cockroft
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William
Penney
Design of the first weapon ( a plutonium
bomb) began in June 1947 at Fort
Halstead in Kent under William Penney.
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Monte Bello
Islands,
October 3,
1952
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The First UK Test, October 3,
1952
HMS Plym (in
August 1952)
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Monte Bello
Islands
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UK underground test
equipment in Nevada
The biggest UK test, April 28, 1958
(Christmas Islands, 3 Mt)
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UK Nukes: Structure
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1. 1955 - ―Valiant‖ Bombers
2. 1957 – Heavy Bombers ―Vulcan‖, 1958 ―Victor‖
3. 1967 - SLBMs ―Polaris‖ on SSBN
―Resolution‖, modernisation in the 1980s
(―Polaris 3TK‖)
4. 1993 - SLBMs ―Trident D5‖, SSBNs
―Vanguard‖
―Valiant‖ drops a bomb ―The Blue Danube‖
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The first British SSBN
―Dreadnought‖, November 1962
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SLBM «Trident»
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SSBN «Vengence»
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SSBN «Vanguard»
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British NW Use Concepts
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1. Veto Right until January 1948
2. ―Massive retaliation‖ Doctrine in the 1950s
3. ―Flexible response‖ in the 1960s
4. SIOP Participation since 1960s
5. Mid 1980s – possibility of the limited
nuclear war
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3. Nukes of France:
history
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

1. Peaceful R&D (CEA, Law of 1952)
2. Ailleret Report, Vietnam Defeat, December 26
1954 Decision
3. February 13, 1960 – first nuclear test
Фредерик ЖолиоФрансуа
Кюри Перрен французский
французский
физик, лауреат
физик
Нобелевской
премии 1934 г.
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Nukes of France: the Brains
A-Bomb: Pierre Guillaumat, Charles
Ailleret, Yves Rocard
 H-Bomb: Michel Carayol, Pierre
Billaud, Luc Dagens

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ЯО Франции:
эволюция структуры
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1. 1960s: ―Mirage IV‖ bombers, modernised
in mid 1970s
2. Since 1971 IRBMs S-2
3. 1972 - SLBMs М1 - М2 - М4 - М20 on
―Redoutable‖ SSBNs
5. 1990s: SSBN ―Triomphan‖, ―Mirage 2000N, IRBMs S-4
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Mururoa
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Современное состояние
СЯС Франции
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
1. 1996 – giving up of IRBMs and land-based
TNF
2. Only SLBMs are to remain intact (М-51)
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The Fourth SSBN «Triomphan» –
«Le Terrible» with M51
4. Nukes of China:
history
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


1. Cooperation with USSR till 1959
2. The first test on October 16, 1964
3. 1970 - IRBM ―DF-1‖, in 1980s - ―DF-2‖
and ―DF-2-1‖
5. 1980 - ICBM ―DF-5‖, 1981 - SSBN «Xia»
with SLBMs ―JL-1‖(«Juilan-1»)
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Nukes of China: the Brains
A-Bomb: Nie Rongzhen, Liu Jie,
Deng Jiaxian
 H-Bomb: Deng Jiaxian, Yu Min,
Peng Huanwu

Пэн Хуань-у
Дэн Цзя-сянь -
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October 16, 1964
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Lop Nur
«496»
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The First Nuclear test in
China
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The First Chinese H-Bomb
Test
June 17, 1967
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The Second Artillery Corps of
the Chinese Army
120,000 men (4% of the Armed
Forces), 12-15% of the budget
 Headquarters in Qinghe

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«Chinese Nuclear Potential»
by Viktor Yesin (July 2012)


The aggregate number is 1600 to 1800
The Chinese plants could have produced up
to 40 tons of weapon-grade U and up to 10
tons of weapon-grade Pu, which makes
China able to produce up to 3600 nukes!
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БР Китая
U.S. Designator
CSS-2
CSS-3 CSS-4
CSS5
CSS CSS-6
X-7
CSS DF-8
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JL-2
PRC Designator
DF-3
DF-4
DF-5
DF21
DF15
DF-11
861
0
DF31
JL-2
Range (in miles)
1,926
3,417
7,457
1,119 373
186
143
4,871 4,871
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IRBM DF-3 & DF-4
(CSS-2 и CSS-3)
DF-3
DF-4
DF-3
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Chinese Nukes Deployment
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«Base 51»

Province:
Jilin, Lyaonin

«Base 52»

Anhui
«Base 53»

Yunnan

Henan
Hunan
Qinghai

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

«Base 54»
«Base 55»
«Base 56»
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Aimed at:
Japan, Korea,
Russia
Taiwan
Philippines,
India, Vietnam
US and Hawaii
Hawaii
Russia, India
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ICBMs DF-5(CSS4)
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SSBN Base in Qingdao
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SSBN Base in Qingdao
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«Xia» at the
base
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Google Earth in 2007: 2
new Chinese SSBNs
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April 2004 dispute: China
versus the UK
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