Возможности использования спутниковых данных влажности

ɋɨɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɟ ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɵ ɞɢɫɬɚɧɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɡɨɧɞɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ Ɂɟɦɥɢ ɢɡ ɤɨɫɦɨɫɚ. 2013. Ɍ. 10. ʋ 1. ɋ. 267–273
ȼɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ
ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɨɱɜɵ ɩɪɢ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɹɪɨɜɨɣ ɩɲɟɧɢɰɵ
(ɧɚ ɩɪɢɦɟɪɟ ɋɚɪɚɬɨɜɫɤɨɣ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ)
ȿ.Ⱥ. ɑɟɪɟɧɤɨɜɚ 1, Ⱥ.Ⱥ. ɑɟɪɟɧɤɨɜɚ 2
ɂɧɫɬɢɬɭɬ ɝɟɨɝɪɚɮɢɢ ɊȺɇ, Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ, Ɋɨɫɫɢɹ
Ɇɨɫɤɨɜɫɤɢɣ ɝɨɫɭɞɚɪɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɣ ɭɧɢɜɟɪɫɢɬɟɬ ɢɦ. Ɇ.ȼ. Ʌɨɦɨɧɨɫɨɜɚ, Ɇɨɫɤɜɚ, Ɋɨɫɫɢɹ
E-mail: [email protected]
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ɉɨ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɡɚ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɨɣ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ɢ ɨɫɚɞɤɚɦɢ ɧɚ 8 ɦɟɬɟɨɫɬɚɧɰɢɹɯ ɋɚɪɚɬɨɜɫɤɨɣ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɢ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɦ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɨɱɜɵ ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɚ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɢ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɹɪɨɜɨɣ ɩɲɟɧɢɰɵ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ 1992–2010 ɝɝ. ɨɬ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɯ ɢ ɞɟɤɚɞɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɧɵɯ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɬɟɥɟɣ,
ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɝɢɞɪɨɬɟɪɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɚ ɋɟɥɹɧɢɧɨɜɚ ɢ ɢɧɞɟɤɫɚ ɫɭɪɨɜɨɫɬɢ ɡɚɫɭɯɢ ɉɚɥɦɟɪɚ. ɉɨɤɚɡɚɧɨ, ɱɬɨ
ɜɜɟɞɟɧɢɟ ɜ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɢɟ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɨɱɜɵ ɭɥɭɱɲɚɸɬ ɜɨɫɩɪɨɢɡɜɟɞɟɧɢɟ ɦɨɞɟɥɶɸ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɹɪɨɜɨɣ ɩɲɟɧɢɰɵ.
Ʉɥɸɱɟɜɵɟ ɫɥɨɜɚ: ɦɟɬɨɞɵ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɤɢ, ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɨɱɜɵ (SWI), ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɶ, ɹɪɨɜɚɹ ɩɲɟɧɢɰɚ, ɋɚɪɚɬɨɜɫɤɚɹ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɶ.
ȼɜɟɞɟɧɢɟ
ɍɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɶ ɫɟɥɶɫɤɨɯɨɡɹɣɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɤɭɥɶɬɭɪ ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɹɟɬɫɹ, ɩɪɟɠɞɟ ɜɫɟɝɨ, ɚɝɪɨɬɟɯɧɢɱɟɫɤɢɦ ɭɪɨɜɧɟɦ ɡɟɦɥɟɞɟɥɢɹ ɢ ɩɨɱɜɟɧɧɨ-ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɦɢ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɹɦɢ ɪɚɣɨɧɚ ɜɨɡɞɟɥɵɜɚɧɢɹ.
Ʉɚɤ ɢɡɜɟɫɬɧɨ, ɨɫɧɨɜɧɵɟ ɡɟɪɧɨɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞɹɳɢɟ ɪɚɣɨɧɵ Ɋɨɫɫɢɣɫɤɨɣ Ɏɟɞɟɪɚɰɢɢ ɧɚɯɨɞɹɬɫɹ
ɜ ɡɨɧɟ ɧɟɭɫɬɨɣɱɢɜɨɝɨ ɢ ɧɟɞɨɫɬɚɬɨɱɧɨɝɨ ɭɜɥɚɠɧɟɧɢɹ. ȼ ɷɬɨɣ ɫɜɹɡɢ ɚɧɚɥɢɡ ɢ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɟɥɶɫɤɨɯɨɡɹɣɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɤɭɥɶɬɭɪ ɛɵɥɢ ɢ ɨɫɬɚɸɬɫɹ ɜɟɫɶɦɚ ɚɤɬɭɚɥɶɧɵɦɢ.
Ɉɬɟɱɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɧɚɭɤɨɣ ɞɨɫɬɢɝɧɭɬɵ ɡɧɚɱɢɬɟɥɶɧɵɟ ɭɫɩɟɯɢ ɜ ɪɚɡɪɚɛɨɬɤɟ ɬɟɨɪɟɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɛɚɡɵ ɢ ɩɪɢɤɥɚɞɧɨɝɨ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ. Ɋɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ
ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɞɨɥɝɨɩɟɪɢɨɞɧɵɯ ɤɨɥɟɛɚɧɢɣ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɟɥɶɫɤɨɯɨɡɹɣɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɤɭɥɶɬɭɪ
ɦɟɬɨɞɚɦɢ ɦɚɬɟɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɤɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɹɸɬɫɹ ɜ ɚɝɪɨɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɰɟɥɹɯ
ɢ ɜ ɚɝɪɨɫɬɪɚɯɨɜɚɧɢɢ. Ɍɚɤɨɣ ɚɧɚɥɢɡ ɩɪɨɜɨɞɢɬɫɹ ɜ ɬɟɫɧɨɣ ɫɜɹɡɢ ɫ ɨɰɟɧɤɨɣ ɜɥɢɹɧɢɹ ɧɚ ɮɨɪɦɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɭɪɨɠɚɹ ɩɨɝɨɞɧɨ-ɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ. ɉɪɢ ɷɬɨɦ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɶɲɟɟ ɪɚɫɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɟɧɢɟ ɩɨɥɭɱɢɥɢ ɦɟɬɨɞɵ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɢ ɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ. Ɂɚɜɢɫɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɯ ɡɟɪɧɨɜɵɯ ɤɭɥɶɬɭɪ ɨɬ ɝɢɞɪɨɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɜ ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɵ
ɦɧɨɝɢɦɢ ɚɜɬɨɪɚɦɢ (ɍɥɚɧɨɜɚ, Ɂɚɛɟɥɢɧ, 1990; Kinger, Mattice, 1928; Lobell, Field, 2007;
Mattice, 1931; Riley, 1957 ɢ ɦɧɨɝɢɟ ɞɪɭɝɢɟ).
ɉɨɹɜɥɟɧɢɟ ɚɪɯɢɜɨɜ ɧɨɜɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɞɢɫɬɚɧɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɡɨɧɞɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ (ɬɚɤɢɯ ɤɚɤ, ɧɚɩɪɢɦɟɪ, ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɶ ɩɨɱɜɵ, ɜɟɝɟɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɵɟ ɢɧɞɟɤɫɵ, ɚɥɶɛɟɞɨ ɢ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ ɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɢ), ɩɨɥɭɱɚɟɦɵɯ ɩɨɫɪɟɞɫɬɜɨɦ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɨɝɨ ɦɨɧɢɬɨɪɢɧɝɚ ɫ ɤɨɧɰɚ XX ɜ., ɨɬɤɪɵɥɨ ɧɨɜɵɟ
ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɬɚɤɢɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɞɥɹ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɢ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ
ɫɟɥɶɫɤɨɯɨɡɹɣɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɤɭɥɶɬɭɪ. ɂɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɢɦɟɟɬ ɨɱɟɜɢɞɧɨɟ
ɞɨɫɬɨɢɧɫɬɜɨ, ɡɚɤɥɸɱɚɸɳɟɟɫɹ ɜ ɲɢɪɨɬɟ ɨɯɜɚɬɚ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɹɦɢ, ɱɚɫɬɨɬɟ, ɨɞɧɨɪɨɞɧɨɫɬɢ ɢ ɜɵɫɨɤɨɦ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɦ ɪɚɡɪɟɲɟɧɢɢ ɢɡɦɟɪɟɧɢɣ. ɇɨ ɟɫɬɶ ɢ ɧɟɞɨɫɬɚɬɤɢ,
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ɤɨɬɨɪɵɟ ɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɢɜɚɸɬ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟɧɢɟ ɚɪɯɢɜɨɜ: ɧɟɛɨɥɶɲɨɣ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɨɣ ɢɧɬɟɪɜɚɥ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɹ,
ɩɪɨɛɥɟɦɚɬɢɱɧɨɫɬɶ ɤɨɪɪɟɤɬɧɨɝɨ ɫɨɩɨɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɢɹ ɚɛɫɨɥɸɬɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɢ ɧɚɡɟɦɧɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɩɨ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɟ ɧɟɫɨɜɩɚɞɟɧɢɹ ɦɟɬɨɞɨɜ, ɟɞɢɧɢɰ ɢɡɦɟɪɟɧɢɹ ɢ ɨɝɪɚɧɢɱɟɧɧɨɫɬɢ
ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɧɚɡɟɦɧɵɯ ɢɡɦɟɪɟɧɢɣ. ɂɡɜɟɫɬɧɵ ɩɨɩɵɬɤɢ ɨɬɟɱɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɬɟɥɟɣ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɢɬɶ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɜɟɝɟɬɚɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɢɧɞɟɤɫɚ NDVI, ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɡɭɸɳɟɝɨ ɫɨɫɬɨɹɧɢɟ
ɪɚɫɬɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɢ, ɞɥɹ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ (Ʉɥɟɳɟɧɤɨ ɢ ɞɪ., 2012).
ɐɟɥɶ ɞɚɧɧɨɣ ɪɚɛɨɬɵ ɫɨɫɬɨɢɬ ɜ ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɢ ɰɟɥɟɫɨɨɛɪɚɡɧɨɫɬɢ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɹ
ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɨɱɜɵ ɢ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɢɯ ɤɨɦɛɢɧɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɫ ɧɚɡɟɦɧɵɦɢ
ɞɚɧɧɵɦɢ ɞɥɹ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ ɪɹɞɨɜ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ. ɗɬɨ ɩɨɩɵɬɤɚ ɨɬɜɟɬɢɬɶ ɧɚ ɜɨɩɪɨɫ,
ɭɥɭɱɲɚɟɬɫɹ ɥɢ ɜɨɫɩɪɨɢɡɜɟɞɟɧɢɟ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɹɪɨɜɨɣ ɩɲɟɧɢɰɵ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɨɧɧɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɶɸ
ɩɪɢ ɜɜɟɞɟɧɢɢ ɜ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɢɟ ɞɢɫɬɚɧɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɩɨɱɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɜɥɚɝɢ?
Ɇɚɬɟɪɢɚɥɵ ɢ ɦɟɬɨɞɵ
ɂɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɩɪɨɜɟɞɟɧɨ ɞɥɹ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɋɚɪɚɬɨɜɫɤɨɣ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ
ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɡɚ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɨɣ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ɢ ɫɭɦɦɚɦɢ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɧɚ 8 ɦɟɬɟɨɫɬɚɧɰɢɹɯ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɫɟɬɢ Ɋɨɫɝɢɞɪɨɦɟɬɚ ɢɡ ɚɪɯɢɜɚ ɫɭɬɨɱɧɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ȼɇɂɂȽɆɂ-ɆɐȾ (http://www.
meteo.ru) (ɪɢɫ. 1). Ⱦɥɹ ɨɰɟɧɤɢ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɣ ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɨɱɜ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɥɫɹ ɚɪɯɢɜ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ
Soil Water Index (ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɨɝɨ ɢɧɞɟɤɫɚ ɩɨɱɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɜɥɚɝɢ SWI) Ɍɟɯɧɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɍɧɢɜɟɪɫɢɬɟɬɚ ȼɟɧɵ (Ⱥɜɫɬɪɢɹ) (Naeimi et al., 2009). Ⱥɪɯɢɜɧɵɟ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ SWI ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɵ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɟ ɞɢɫɬɚɧɰɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɦɚɬɟɪɢɚɥɨɜ, ɫɨɞɟɪɠɚɳɢɯ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɸ ɨ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɚɯ ɨɛɪɚɬɧɨɝɨ
ɪɚɫɫɟɹɧɢɹ ɪɚɞɢɨɦɟɬɪɨɜ, ɭɫɬɚɧɨɜɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɧɚ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɚɯ ERS-1 ɢ ERS-2. SWI ɩɨɤɚɡɵɜɚɟɬ
ɫɨɞɟɪɠɚɧɢɟ ɜɨɞɵ ɜ ɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɚɯ ɜ ɩɨɱɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɬɨɥɳɟ ɝɥɭɛɢɧɨɣ ɞɨ 1 ɦ. Ⱥɪɯɢɜɧɵɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ
ɢɦɟɸɬ ɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɟ ɪɚɡɪɟɲɟɧɢɟ 12,5 ɯ 12,5 ɤɦ ɢ ɩɪɟɞɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɵ ɩɨɞɟɤɚɞɧɵɦɢ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɦɢ ɪɹɞɚɦɢ ɡɚ ɤɚɠɞɵɣ ɦɟɫɹɰ ɫ 1992 ɩɨ 2010 ɝ. ɂɡ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɢɹ ɛɵɥ ɢɡɴɹɬ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ
2001–2003 ɝɝ., ɤɨɝɞɚ ɢɡɦɟɪɟɧɢɹ ɫɨ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɚ ɛɵɥɢ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɨ ɩɪɟɪɜɚɧɵ ɩɨ ɩɪɢɱɢɧɚɦ ɬɟɯɧɢɱɟɫɤɨɣ ɧɟɢɫɩɪɚɜɧɨɫɬɢ. Ɂɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɨɱɜɵ ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɵɜɚɥɢɫɶ ɞɥɹ ɭɡɥɨɜ ɫɟɬɤɢ ɫ ɤɨɨɪɞɢɧɚɬɚɦɢ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨ ɛɥɢɡɤɢɦɢ ɤ ɤɚɠɞɨɣ ɜɵɛɪɚɧɧɨɣ ɦɟɬɟɨɫɬɚɧɰɢɢ ɩɭɬɟɦ ɨɫɪɟɞɧɟɧɢɹ
ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɜ ɨɤɪɭɠɚɸɳɢɯ ɫɨɫɟɞɧɢɯ ɭɡɥɚɯ. Ɋɚɧɟɟ ɛɵɥɚ ɜɵɹɜɥɟɧɚ ɬɟɫɧɚɹ ɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɨɧɧɚɹ ɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɨɫɬɶ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ SWI ɫ ɞɚɧɧɵɦɢ ɧɚɡɟɦɧɵɯ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɡɚ ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɶɸ ɩɨɱɜɵ (Albergel
et al., 2010; Crow et al., 2012). ȼɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɩɨɱɜɟɧɧɨɣ
ɜɥɚɝɢ ɧɚ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɫɭɛɛɨɪɟɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɪɚɜɧɢɧɧɵɯ ɥɚɧɞɲɚɮɬɨɜ ɟɜɪɨɩɟɣɫɤɨɣ ɱɚɫɬɢ Ɋɨɫɫɢɢ
ɛɵɥɢ ɨɰɟɧɟɧɵ ɪɚɧɟɟ (ɑɟɪɟɧɤɨɜɚ ɢ ɞɪ., 2010; ɑɟɪɟɧɤɨɜɚ, 2011).
ȼ ɪɚɛɨɬɟ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɣ ɦɟɬɨɞ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ, ɝɞɟ ɜ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɨɣ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɨɣ ɜɵɫɬɭɩɚɟɬ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɶ ɤɨɧɤɪɟɬɧɨɣ ɫɟɥɶɫɤɨɯɨɡɹɣɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɤɭɥɶɬɭɪɵ, ɚ ɧɟɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɵɦɢ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɦɢ − ɩɨɤɚɡɚɬɟɥɢ, ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɧɵɟ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɟ
ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɢ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ. ȼɥɢɹɧɢɟ ɬɪɟɧɞɨɜɨɣ ɫɨɫɬɚɜɥɹɸɳɟɣ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɧɚ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɧɨɦ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɨɦ ɢɧɬɟɪɜɚɥɟ ɩɨɥɚɝɚɥɨɫɶ ɧɟɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɦ. ɍɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɟ
ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɢ ɞɥɹ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ Y ɜ ɨɛɳɟɦ ɜɢɞɟ ɡɚɩɢɫɵɜɚɟɬɫɹ ɤɚɤ
Y = C1 X1 + … + Cn Xn +ȕ, ɝɞɟ Ci – i-ɣ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɨɧɧɵɣ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬ, Xi – i-ɣ ɚɝɪɨɦɟɬɟɨɩɨɤɚɡɚɬɟɥɶ, ȕ – ɫɜɨɛɨɞɧɵɣ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬ, n – ɱɢɫɥɨ ɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɵɯ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ-ɩɪɟɞɢɤɬɨɪɨɜ.
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Ɋɢɫ. 1. Ɇɟɬɟɨɫɬɚɧɰɢɢ ɋɚɪɚɬɨɜɫɤɨɣ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ
ȼ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɧɟɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɵɯ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ ɩɪɢ ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɢɢ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɨɧɧɵɯ ɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɨɫɬɟɣ
ɛɵɥɢ ɜɡɹɬɵ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɟ ɢ ɫɪɟɞɧɢɟ ɡɚ ɞɟɤɚɞɵ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɢ ɫɭɦɦɵ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ, ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɚɧɧɵɟ ɧɚ ɨɫɧɨɜɟ ɫɭɬɨɱɧɵɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɦɢɧɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ, ɫɪɟɞɧɟɣ ɢ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ
ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ɢ ɫɭɦɦ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɫ ɦɚɹ ɩɨ ɢɸɥɶ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ 1992–2010 ɝɝ. Ʉɪɨɦɟ ɬɨɝɨ, ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɵ
ɩɨɤɚɡɚɬɟɥɢ, ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɡɭɸɳɢɟ ɫɨɨɬɧɨɲɟɧɢɟ ɬɟɩɥɚ ɢ ɜɥɚɝɢ: ɫɪɟɞɧɟɦɟɫɹɱɧɵɟ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɝɢɞɪɨɬɟɪɦɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɚ ɋɟɥɹɧɢɧɨɜɚ ȽɌɄ (ɋɟɥɹɧɢɧɨɜ, 1928) ɢ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɬɟɥɹ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ
ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ Palmer Drought Severity Index PDSI (Palmer, 1965). Ɂɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ȽɌɄ ɜɵɱɢɫɥɹɸɬɫɹ
ɤɚɤ ɨɬɧɨɲɟɧɢɟ ɫɭɦɦɵ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɡɚ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɫɨ ɫɪɟɞɧɢɦɢ ɫɭɬɨɱɧɵɦɢ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɚɦɢ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ
ɜɵɲɟ 10 °ɋ (ɦɦ) ɤ ɫɭɦɦɟ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪ ɡɚ ɬɨɬ ɠɟ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ, ɭɜɟɥɢɱɟɧɧɨɟ ɜ 10 ɪɚɡ. ɉɨɤɚɡɚɬɟɥɶ
ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ PDSI ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɢɡɭɟɬ ɞɟɮɢɰɢɬ ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ (ɜ ɱɚɫɬɧɨɫɬɢ, ɡɚɫɭɯɭ ɢ ɩɟɪɟɭɜɥɚɠɧɟɧɢɟ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɨɣ ɢɧɬɟɧɫɢɜɧɨɫɬɢ) ɢ ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɵɜɚɟɬɫɹ ɩɨ ɪɟɤɭɪɫɢɜɧɨɣ ɮɨɪɦɭɥɟ ɫ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟɦ ɭɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɹ ɜɨɞɧɨɝɨ ɛɚɥɚɧɫɚ ɜ ɫɨɤɪɚɳɟɧɧɨɣ ɮɨɪɦɟ.
ȼ ɤɚɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɜ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɛɵɥɢ ɜɤɥɸɱɟɧɵ ɞɟɤɚɞɧɵɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɨɝɨ ɢɧɞɟɤɫɚ ɩɨɱɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɜɥɚɝɢ SWI.
ȼɵɱɢɫɥɟɧɢɹ ɩɪɨɜɨɞɢɥɢɫɶ ɫ ɩɨɦɨɳɶɸ ɩɚɤɟɬɚ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɪɨɝɪɚɦɦ SPSS.
Ɉɛɫɭɠɞɟɧɢɟ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɨɜ
ɑɬɨɛɵ ɞɨɛɢɬɶɫɹ ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɢɹ ɭɫɬɨɣɱɢɜɨɣ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ, ɦɵ ɢɫɤɥɸɱɢɥɢ ɢɡɛɵɬɨɱɧɵɟ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɟ–ɩɪɟɞɢɤɬɨɪɵ, ɜɵɩɨɥɧɢɜ ɨɰɟɧɤɭ ɢɯ ɜɡɚɢɦɧɨɣ ɤɨɪɪɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɫɬɢ. Ʉɪɨɦɟ ɬɨɝɨ, ɞɥɹ
ɭɜɟɥɢɱɟɧɢɹ ɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɢ ɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɨɣ ɢ ɧɟɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɵɯ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɛɵɥɚ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɟɞɟɧɚ
ɡɚɦɟɧɚ ɧɟɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɵɯ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ ɧɚ ɞɟɪɢɜɚɬɢɜɧɵɟ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɬɟɥɢ (ɜ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɦ ɩɨɥɢɧɨɦɚɦɢ
2-ɝɨ ɢ 3-ɝɨ ɩɨɪɹɞɤɚ). ȼ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɦɧɨɝɨɦɟɪɧɨɣ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɢ ɜɵɜɟɞɟɧɨ ɭɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɟ ɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɹɪɨɜɨɣ ɩɲɟɧɢɰɵ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ 1992–2010 ɝɝ. ɫ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɶɲɢɦ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɟɦ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɚ ɞɟɬɟɪɦɢɧɚɰɢɢ R2 (0,86 ɛɟɡ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ SWI ɢ 0,88 ɫ SWI)
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ɩɪɢ ɧɚɢɦɟɧɶɲɟɦ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɟ ɧɟɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɵɯ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ ɢ ɫɨ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɟɦ ɫɬɚɧɞɚɪɬɧɨɣ
ɨɲɢɛɤɢ 1,6 ɢ 1,5 ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ.
ɉɪɢ ɷɬɨɦ ɭɫɬɚɧɨɜɥɟɧɨ, ɱɬɨ ɜ ɛɨɥɶɲɟɣ ɫɬɟɩɟɧɢ ɧɚ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɧɭɸ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɶ
ɜɥɢɹɟɬ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɝɨ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ɢ ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɶ ɩɨɱɜɵ 2-ɣ ɢ 3-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɵ ɦɚɹ, 1-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɵ ɢɸɧɹ, ɚ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɫɨɨɬɧɨɲɟɧɢɟ ɬɟɩɥɚ ɢ ɜɥɚɝɢ ɜ ɦɚɟ (ɬɚɛɥ. 1). ɍɜɟɥɢɱɟɧɢɟ R2 ɩɪɢ ɜɜɟɞɟɧɢɢ ɜ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɢɟ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɩɨɱɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɜɩɨɥɧɟ ɦɨɠɟɬ ɹɜɥɹɬɶɫɹ
ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɢɟɦ ɢɯ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɩɪɢ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɟ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ. ɇɚ ɪɢɫ. 2 ɜɢɞɧɨ, ɱɬɨ ɝɪɚɮɢɤɢ
ɞɢɧɚɦɢɤɢ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɥɭɱɲɟ ɫɨɝɥɚɫɨɜɚɧɵ ɩɪɢ ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ SWI (ɪɢɫ. 2ɛ),
ɱɟɦ ɛɟɡ ɧɢɯ (ɪɢɫ. 2ɚ).ɉɨɥɭɱɟɧɧɵɟ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ ɧɟ ɩɪɨɬɢɜɨɪɟɱɚɬ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɚɦ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɣ
ɩɪɨɝɧɨɫɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɨɫɬɟɣ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɵɯ ɫɟɥɶɫɤɨɯɨɡɹɣɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɤɭɥɶɬɭɪ
ɨɬ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɯ ɧɚɡɟɦɧɵɯ ɢɡɦɟɪɟɧɢɣ ɚɝɪɨɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɨɜ, ɩɨɤɚɡɚɜɲɢɟ, ɱɬɨ
ɨɩɪɟɞɟɥɹɸɳɢɦ ɮɚɤɬɨɪɨɦ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɡɚɩɚɫ ɩɪɨɞɭɤɬɢɜɧɨɣ ɜɥɚɝɢ ɜ ɦɟɬɪɨɜɨɦ ɫɥɨɟ ɩɨɱɜɵ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɣ, ɜ ɫɜɨɸ ɨɱɟɪɟɞɶ, ɮɨɪɦɢɪɭɟɬɫɹ ɜ ɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɨɬ ɜɵɩɚɜɲɢɯ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ ɢ ɪɟɝɭɥɢɪɭɟɬɫɹ
ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɨɣ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ɩɨɫɪɟɞɫɬɜɨɦ ɢɫɩɚɪɟɧɢɹ (ɍɥɚɧɨɜɚ, 1975).
Ɍɚɛɥɢɰɚ 1. Ɂɚɜɢɫɢɦɵɟ ɩɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɟ ɢ ɤɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɵ ɭɪɚɜɧɟɧɢɹ ɦɧɨɠɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɥɢɧɟɣɧɨɣ
ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɢ ɞɥɹ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɹɪɨɜɨɣ ɩɲɟɧɢɰɵ ɧɚ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɋɚɪɚɬɨɜɫɤɨɣ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ
1992–2010 ɝɝ. Ɍɢɩ ɮɭɧɤɰɢɨɧɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɨɫɬɢ ɫ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɶɸ ɹɪɨɜɨɣ ɩɲɟɧɢɰɵ:
1
– ɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɢɱɧɚɹ, 2 – ɤɭɛɢɱɟɫɤɚɹ, 3 – ɫɬɟɩɟɧɧɚɹ, 4 – ɷɤɫɩɨɧɟɧɰɢɚɥɶɧɚɹ
Ʉɨɷɮɮɢɰɢɟɧɬɵ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ:
ɉɟɪɟɦɟɧɧɚɹ
ɛɟɡ SWI
Ʉɨɧɫɬɚɧɬɚ
–71,33
ɫ SWI
–27,0
ɋɪɟɞɧɹɹ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɫɭɬɨɱɧɚɹ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ȼ ɦɚɟ1
–1,1
–0,63
ɋɪɟɞɧɹɹ ɦɢɧɢɦɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɫɭɬɨɱɧɚɹ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ɜ ɢɸɧɟ
–0,66
–0,54
–0,46
–0,4
0,35
0,3
ȽɌɄ ɜ ɢɸɥɟ
4
2
ȽɌɄ ɫ ɦɚɹ ɩɨ ɢɸɧɶ
2
ɋɭɦɦɚ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɣ ɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ ɫ ɦɚɹ ɩɨ ɢɸɥɶ2
0,35
–
ɋɪɟɞɧɹɹ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ 1-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɵ ɦɚɹ1
0,48
–
0,95
0,74
0,76
0,5
–0,26
–0,51
ɋɪɟɞɧɹɹ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ 3-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɵ ɦɚɹ3
1,17
1,13
ɋɪɟɞɧɹɹ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ 3-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɵ ɢɸɥɹ2
0,31
0,56
ɋɭɦɦɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ 1-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɵ ɦɚɹ
0,45
0,54
ɋɪɟɞɧɹɹ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ 1-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɵ ɢɸɧɹ
2
ɋɪɟɞɧɹɹ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ 2-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɵ ɦɚɹ
2
ɋɪɟɞɧɹɹ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ ɜɨɡɞɭɯɚ 2-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɵ ɢɸɧɹ
2
ɋɭɦɦɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ 2-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɵ ɦɚɹ
2
4
0,35
0,33
2
0,65
0,59
ɋɭɦɦɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ 3-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɵ ɢɸɥɹ2
0,24
0,24
Pdsi ɜ ɦɚɟ
0,55
0,69
0,47
0,39
ȼɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɶ ɩɨɱɜɵ ɜɨ 2-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɟ ɦɚɹ
–
0,41
ȼɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɶ ɩɨɱɜɵ ɜ 3-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɟ ɦɚɹ3
–
–0,69
ȼɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɶ ɩɨɱɜɵ ɜ 1-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɟ ɢɸɧɹ2
–
0,6
ɋɭɦɦɚ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ 2-ɣ ɞɟɤɚɞɵ ɢɸɥɹ
2
Pdsi ɜ ɢɸɥɟ
2
3
270
ɚ)
ɛ)
Ɋɢɫ. 2. Ⱦɢɧɚɦɢɤɚ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɨɛɥɚɫɬɧɨɣ (ɫɩɥɨɲɧɚɹ ɥɢɧɢɹ)
ɢ ɫɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɣ (ɬɨɱɟɱɧɚɹ ɥɢɧɢɹ) ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɹɪɨɜɨɣ ɩɲɟɧɢɰɵ (ɰ/ɝɚ)
ɧɚ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɋɚɪɚɬɨɜɫɤɨɣ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ 1992–2010 ɝɝ.:
ɚ) ɛɟɡ SWI, ɛ) ɫ SWI. ɉɪɹɦɨɣ ɲɬɪɢɯɨɜɨɣ ɥɢɧɢɟɣ ɩɨɤɚɡɚɧ ɤɨɪɢɞɨɪ
ɫɪɟɞɧɟɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɨɬɤɥɨɧɟɧɢɹ, ɩɪɹɦɨɣ ɫɩɥɨɲɧɨɣ ɥɢɧɢɟɣ –
ɫɪɟɞɧɟɟ ɦɧɨɝɨɥɟɬɧɟɟ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɟ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɹɪɨɜɨɣ ɩɲɟɧɢɰɵ
ɜ ɋɚɪɚɬɨɜɫɤɨɣ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ
ɉɪɢ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɤɢ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɟɟ ɜɚɠɧɵɦ ɹɜɥɹɟɬɫɹ ɫɩɨɫɨɛɧɨɫɬɶ ɦɨɞɟɥɢ ɚɞɟɤɜɚɬɧɨ ɨɬɪɚɠɚɬɶ ɷɤɫɬɪɟɦɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ. ɇɚ ɝɪɚɮɢɤɟ ɪɢɫ. 2 ɯɨɪɨɲɨ
ɜɢɞɧɨ, ɱɬɨ ɥɨɤɚɥɶɧɵɟ ɷɤɫɬɪɟɦɭɦɵ ɪɚɫɫɦɚɬɪɢɜɚɟɦɵɯ ɜɟɥɢɱɢɧ ɫɨɨɬɧɨɫɹɬɫɹ ɞɨɫɬɚɬɨɱɧɨ
ɛɥɢɡɤɨ. ɉɨɜɟɞɟɧɢɟ ɪɟɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɢ ɫɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɣ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɟɟ ɬɟɫɧɨ ɨɬɨɛɪɚɠɚɟɬɫɹ ɜ ɩɟɪɢɨɞɵ 1996–2000 ɝɝ. ɢ 2006–2010 ɝɝ. Ɉɞɧɚɤɨ ɧɟɨɛɯɨɞɢɦɨ ɨɬɦɟɬɢɬɶ, ɱɬɨ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ
ɫɤɥɨɧɧɚ ɧɟɫɤɨɥɶɤɨ ɡɚɧɢɠɚɬɶ ɧɟɞɨɛɨɪ ɡɟɪɧɚ ɜ ɪɚɫɫɦɨɬɪɟɧɧɵɣ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ. ɋɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɟ
ɨɬɪɢɰɚɬɟɥɶɧɵɟ ɷɤɫɬɪɟɦɭɦɵ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ 1995, 1998, 2010 ɝɝ., ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɤɨɬɨɪɵɯ ɜɵɲɥɢ
ɡɚ ɪɚɦɤɢ ɤɨɪɢɞɨɪɚ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɤɜɚɞɪɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɨɝɨ ɨɬɤɥɨɧɟɧɢɹ, ɧɟ ɬɨɥɶɤɨ ɯɨɪɨɲɨ ɫɨɝɥɚɫɭɸɬɫɹ
ɫ ɝɨɞɚɦɢ ɦɚɤɫɢɦɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ ɧɟɞɨɛɨɪɚ ɡɟɪɧɚ ɩɨ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ, ɧɨ ɢ ɫ ɝɨɞɚɦɢ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɹ ɨɛɲɢɪɧɵɯ ɫɢɥɶɧɵɯ ɢ ɷɤɫɬɪɟɦɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɥɟɬɧɢɯ ɡɚɫɭɯ ɧɚ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɉɪɢɜɨɥɠɫɤɨɝɨ ɮɟɞɟɪɚɥɶɧɨɝɨ
ɨɤɪɭɝɚ ɊɎ (ɑɟɪɟɧɤɨɜɚ, 2013). Ɉɬɦɟɬɢɦ, ɱɬɨ ɥɟɬɧɹɹ ɷɤɫɬɪɟɦɚɥɶɧɚɹ ɡɚɫɭɯɚ 2010 ɝ. ɧɚ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɟɜɪɨɩɟɣɫɤɨɣ ɱɚɫɬɢ Ɋɨɫɫɢɢ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɟɟ ɫɢɥɶɧɨ ɩɪɨɹɜɢɥɚɫɶ ɢɦɟɧɧɨ ɜ ɉɪɢɜɨɥɠɫɤɨɦ
ɨɤɪɭɝɟ ɢ ɨɛɭɫɥɨɜɢɥɚ ɪɟɤɨɪɞɧɨɟ ɫɧɢɠɟɧɢɟ ɭɪɨɠɚɹ, ɜ ɱɚɫɬɧɨɫɬɢ, ɜ ɋɚɪɚɬɨɜɫɤɨɣ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ –
ɞɨ 1,29 ɰ/ɝɚ.
ɉɨɫɦɨɬɪɢɦ, ɤɚɤ ɩɨɫɬɪɨɟɧɧɚɹ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɫɩɨɫɨɛɧɚ ɫɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɬɶ ɛɟɫɩɪɟɰɟɞɟɧɬɧɨ
ɧɢɡɤɭɸ ɫ ɧɚɱɚɥɚ ɜɟɞɟɧɢɹ ɨɮɢɰɢɚɥɶɧɨɣ ɫɬɚɬɢɫɬɢɤɢ ɫ 1947 ɝ. ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɶ ɹɪɨɜɨɣ ɩɲɟɧɢɰɵ
ɜ 2010 ɝ. ɧɚ ɬɟɪɪɢɬɨɪɢɢ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ. Ⱦɥɹ ɷɬɨɝɨ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɢɦ ɨɩɢɫɚɧɧɭɸ ɜɵɲɟ ɩɪɨɰɟɞɭɪɭ ɤ ɞɚɧɧɵɦ ɡɚ ɩɟɪɢɨɞ 1992–2009 ɝɝ. ɢ ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɚɟɦ ɩɨ ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɧɵɦ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɨɧɧɵɦ ɡɚɜɢɫɢɦɨɫɬɹɦ
ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɹɪɨɜɨɣ ɩɲɟɧɢɰɵ ɜ ɋɚɪɚɬɨɜɫɤɨɣ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɜ 2010 ɝ. ȼ ɨɛɨɢɯ ɫɥɭɱɚɹɯ
ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɡɚɜɵɲɚɟɬ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɭɟɦɵɣ ɫɛɨɪ ɡɟɪɧɚ ɜ 2010 ɝ.: ɛɟɡ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɫɨ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɚ ɬɨɱɧɨɫɬɶ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɚ ɫɧɢɠɟɧɢɹ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɨɬɧɨɫɢɬɟɥɶɧɨ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɝɨ ɫɨɫɬɚɜɢɥɚ 3,9 ɰ/ɝɚ, ɫ SWI
ɬɨɱɧɨɫɬɶ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɚ ɩɨɜɵɫɢɥɚɫɶ ɞɨ 3,7 ɰ/ɝɚ, ɱɬɨ ɦɨɠɧɨ ɫɱɢɬɚɬɶ ɧɟɩɥɨɯɢɦ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɨɦ,
ɭɱɢɬɵɜɚɹ ɤɪɚɣɧɟ ɷɤɫɬɪɟɦɚɥɶɧɵɣ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪ ɥɟɬɧɢɯ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɣ 2010 ɝ. ɉɪɢ ɷɬɨɦ ɜɤɥɸɱɟɧɢɟ
ɜ ɦɨɞɟɥɶ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɨɱɜɵ ɧɚ 15% ɭɥɭɱɲɢɥɨ ɨɛɥɚɫɬɧɨɣ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡ
ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ.
271
Ɂɚɤɥɸɱɟɧɢɟ
ɇɚɤɨɩɥɟɧɢɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣ ɪɚɡɥɢɱɧɵɯ ɚɝɪɨ- ɢ ɦɟɬɟɨɩɚɪɚɦɟɬɪɨɜ ɩɨɫɪɟɞɫɬɜɨɦ
ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɨɝɨ ɦɨɧɢɬɨɪɢɧɝɚ ɩɨɜɟɪɯɧɨɫɬɢ Ɂɟɦɥɢ ɢɡ ɤɨɫɦɨɫɚ ɨɬɤɪɵɜɚɟɬ ɧɨɜɵɟ ɩɟɪɫɩɟɤɬɢɜɵ
ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɬɚɤɢɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ, ɜ ɱɚɫɬɧɨɫɬɢ, ɞɥɹ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ ɪɹɞɨɜ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ.
ɇɨɜɢɡɧɚ ɩɪɟɞɥɨɠɟɧɧɨɝɨ ɩɨɞɯɨɞɚ ɫɨɫɬɨɢɬ, ɩɪɟɠɞɟ ɜɫɟɝɨ, ɜ ɨɰɟɧɤɟ ɜɨɡɦɨɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɧɚɢɛɨɥɟɟ ɩɨɥɧɨɝɨ ɢ ɧɚɞɟɠɧɨɝɨ ɧɚ ɬɟɤɭɳɢɣ ɦɨɦɟɧɬ ɚɪɯɢɜɚ ɫɨɜɪɟɦɟɧɧɵɯ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ
ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɩɨɱɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ. Ɉɩɢɪɚɹɫɶ ɧɚ ɩɨɥɭɱɟɧɧɵɟ ɜ ɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵ, ɦɨɠɧɨ
ɫɱɢɬɚɬɶ ɨɩɪɚɜɞɚɧɧɵɦ ɩɪɢɦɟɧɟɧɢɟ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɵɯ ɞɚɧɧɵɯ ɩɨɱɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɜɥɚɠɧɨɫɬɢ ɞɥɹ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ
ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɹɪɨɜɨɣ ɩɲɟɧɢɰɵ. ɉɪɟɞɥɨɠɟɧɧɚɹ ɦɟɬɨɞɢɤɚ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɬɚɤɠɟ ɩɨɥɟɡɧɚ ɩɪɢ ɨɰɟɧɤɟ
ɪɢɫɤɨɜ ɜ ɚɝɪɨɫɬɪɚɯɨɜɚɧɢɢ.
Ʌɢɬɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ
1. Ʉɥɟɳɟɧɤɨ Ⱥ.Ⱦ., Ƚɨɧɱɚɪɨɜɚ Ɍ.Ⱥ., ɇɚɣɞɢɧɚ Ɍ.Ⱥ. ɂɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟ ɫɩɭɬɧɢɤɨɜɨɣ ɢɧɮɨɪɦɚɰɢɢ
ɜ ɞɢɧɚɦɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɦɨɞɟɥɹɯ ɩɪɨɝɧɨɡɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɢ ɫɟɥɶɫɤɨɯɨɡɹɣɫɬɜɟɧɧɵɯ ɤɭɥɶɬɭɪ
// Ɇɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɹ ɢ ɝɢɞɪɨɥɨɝɢɹ. 2012. ʋ 4. ɋ. 90–99.
2. ɋɟɥɹɧɢɧɨɜ Ƚ.Ɍ. Ɉ ɫɟɥɶɫɤɨɯɨɡɹɣɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɨɰɟɧɤɟ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ // Ɍɪɭɞɵ ɩɨ ɫɟɥɶɫɤɨɯɨɡɹɣɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɣ ɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɢ. 1928. ȼɵɩ. 20. ɋ. 165–177.
3. ɍɥɚɧɨɜɚ ȿ.ɋ., Ɂɚɛɟɥɢɧ ȼ.ɇ. Ɇɟɬɨɞɵ ɤɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɢ ɪɟɝɪɟɫɫɢɨɧɧɨɝɨ ɚɧɚɥɢɡɚ ɜ ɚɝɪɨɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɢ. Ʌ.: Ƚɢɞɪɨɦɟɬɟɨɢɡɞɚɬ, 1990. 207 ɫ.
4. ɍɥɚɧɨɜɚ ȿ.ɋ. Ⱥɝɪɨɦɟɬɟɨɪɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɭɫɥɨɜɢɹ ɢ ɭɪɨɠɚɣɧɨɫɬɶ ɨɡɢɦɨɣ ɩɲɟɧɢɰɵ. Ʌ.:
Ƚɢɞɪɨɦɟɬɟɨɢɡɞɚɬ, 1975, 302 ɫ.
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The possibility of using of satellite soil moisture data in the analysis
of spring wheat productivity (with an example from the Saratov region)
E.A. Cherenkova 1, A.A. Cherenkova 2
1
2
Institute of Geography, RAS, Moscow, Russia
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: [email protected]
Multiple linear regression model for spring wheat productivity was designed using observations of decade and
monthly mean air temperature and precipitation at 8 meteorological stations of Saratov region and satellite data of soil
moisture in the period 1992–2010. Also we used Selyaninov hydrothermal coefÞcient and Palmer Drought Severity
Index. It is shown that the satellite soil moisture data improves model productivity of spring wheat.
Keywords: statistical methods, satellite data of soil moisture (SWI), productivity, spring wheat, Saratov region.
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