Загрузил Katrin Kashchenko

Corpus Linguistics and the Law Extending the Field from a Statis

реклама
Brooklyn Law Review
Volume 86
Issue 2
Article 2
9-22-2021
Corpus Linguistics and the Law: Extending the Field from a
Statistical Perspective
Stefan Th. Gries
Follow this and additional works at: https://brooklynworks.brooklaw.edu/blr
Part of the Law and Society Commons, Other Law Commons, Rule of Law Commons, and the Science
and Technology Law Commons
Recommended Citation
Stefan T. Gries, Corpus Linguistics and the Law: Extending the Field from a Statistical Perspective, 86
Brook. L. Rev. 321 (2021).
Available at: https://brooklynworks.brooklaw.edu/blr/vol86/iss2/2
This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Law Journals at BrooklynWorks. It has been accepted
for inclusion in Brooklyn Law Review by an authorized editor of BrooklynWorks.
&RUSXV /LQJXLVWLFV DQG WKH /DZ
(;7(1',1* 7+( ),(/' )520 $ 67$7,67,&$/
3(563(&7,9(
6WHIDQ 7K *ULHV‚
,1752'8&7,21
2YHU WKH ODVW ILYH WR WHQ \HDUV WKH QHZ GLVFLSOLQH RI OHJDO
FRUSXV OLQJXLVWLFV /&/ KDV EHHQ VWHDGLO\ JURZLQJ &RUSXV
OLQJXLVWLF &/ DSSOLFDWLRQV KDYH VORZO\ EHFRPH PRUH ZLGHVSUHDG
LQ PDWWHUV RI OHJDO LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ &RUSXV OLQJXLVWLFV LV D VXEILHOG
RI OLQJXLVWLFV WKDW LV EDVHG RQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI GDWD IURP FRUSRUD
VLQJXODU FRUSXV ZKHUH D FRUSXV KDV EHHQ GHILQHG DV
D PDFKLQHUHDGDEOH FROOHFWLRQ RI VSRNHQ RU ZULWWHQ WH[WV WKDW ZHUH
SURGXFHG LQ D QDWXUDO FRPPXQLFDWLYH VHWWLQJ DQG LQ ZKLFK WKH
FROOHFWLRQ RI WH[WV LV FRPSLOHG ZLWK WKH LQWHQWLRQ WR EH
UHSUHVHQWDWLYH DQG EDODQFHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR D SDUWLFXODU OLQJXLVWLF
ODQJXDJH YDULHW\ UHJLVWHU RU JHQUH DQG WR EH DQDO\]HG
OLQJXLVWLFDOO\
7\SLFDOO\ HDFK WH[W VDPSOHG LQWR D FRUSXV³HDFK SDUW RI D
ERRN HDFK SDUW RI D XVHU PDQXDO HDFK SDUW RI D QHZVSDSHU
DUWLFOH³LV VDYHG LQ LWV RZQ ILOH VR WKDW FRQWHPSRUDU\ FRUSRUD FDQ
FRQVLVW RI WHQV RU KXQGUHGV RI WKRXVDQGV RI ILOHV 2Q D PRUH JHQHUDO
OHYHO FRUSXVOLQJXLVWLF DQDO\VHV XVXDOO\ SURFHHG E\ UHWULHYLQJ IURP
WKHVH ILOHV H[DPSOHV RI OLQJXLVWLF XQLWV DV WKH\ ZHUH XVHG LQ UHDO
OLIH VR WR VSHDN LQ RUGHU WR H[WUDFW GLVWULEXWLRQDO RU VWDWLVWLFDO
SDWWHUQV WKDW FDQ LQIRUP VXEVHTXHQW OLQJXLVWLF DQDO\VLV
‚ 6WHIDQ 7K *ULHV LV SURIHVVRU RI OLQJXLVWLFV LQ WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI /LQJXLVWLFV
DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &DOLIRUQLD 6DQWD %DUEDUD DQG &KDLU RI (QJOLVK /LQJXLVWLFV &RUSXV
/LQJXLVWLFV ZLWK D IRFXV RQ TXDQWLWDWLYH PHWKRGV DW WKH -XVWXV/LHELJ8QLYHUVLWlW
*LHVVHQ +H ZDV D YLVLWLQJ SURIHVVRU DW WKH DQG /6$
/LQJXLVWLF ,QVWLWXWHV DW 6WDQIRUG 8QLYHUVLW\ WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &RORUDGR DW %RXOGHU WKH
8QLYHUVLW\ RI 0LFKLJDQ $QQ $UERU WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &KLFDJR DQG WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI
&DOLIRUQLD 'DYLV +H KDV FRDXWKRUHG DQG FRHGLWHG PRUH WKDQ SDSHUV DQG DUWLFOHV
WZR WH[WERRNV PXOWLSOH HGLWLRQV VHYHUDO UHVHDUFK PRQRJUDSKV DQG QLQH YROXPHV PRVW
RI KLV ZRUN LV RQ WKH LQWHUVHFWLRQV RI FRUSXV DQG FRPSXWDWLRQDO OLQJXLVWLFV ZLWK FRJQLWLYH
DQG SV\FKROLQJXLVWLFV
67()$1 7+ *5,(6 48$17,7$7,9( &25386 /,1*8,67,&6 :,7+ 5 $ 35$&7,&$/
,1752'8&7,21 G HG %522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO 2YHU WKH ODVW IHZ \HDUV ZH KDYH VHHQ PRUH DQG PRUH
FRXUW FDVHV LQ ZKLFK &/ LV EURXJKW WR EHDU RQ WKH RULJLQDO
RUGLQDU\SXEOLF PHDQLQJ RI H[SUHVVLRQV LQ OHJDO WH[WV LQ EULHIV
DQG MXGLFLDO RSLQLRQV VLPLODUO\ WKHUH LV QRZ PRUH DFDGHPLF
UHVHDUFK IRFXVLQJ RQ LIKRZ &/ PHWKRGV FDQ VKHG OLJKW RQ WKH
SODLQRUGLQDU\ PHDQLQJ RI ZRUGV LQ D OHJDO WH[W
:KLOH WKLV LV D ZHOFRPH GHYHORSPHQW WR DGGUHVV SRWHQWLDO
VKRUWFRPLQJV DULVLQJ LQ IRU LQVWDQFH LQWXLWLRQ RU GLFWLRQDU\EDVHG
DSSURDFKHV WR RUGLQDU\ PHDQLQJ LW DOVR FRPHV ZLWK SRWHQWLDO IRU
WKLV GHYHORSPHQW WR HQFRXQWHU ULVNV )RU H[DPSOH WKHUH DUH PDQ\
OHJDO VFKRODUV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV ZKRVH FULWLFLVP RI /&/ LV ODUJHO\
GXH WR WKH IDFW WKDW VHYHUDO HDUO\ DGRSWHUVSURPRWHUV RI /&/ KDYH
EHHQ PDVVLYHO\ VLPSOLI\LQJ WKH ILHOG RI &/ WR ZKDW WKH\ NQRZ DERXW
&/ DQG WR ZKDW VHHPV WR WKHP WR EH FRQYHQLHQW DSSOLFDWLRQV RI &/
WR WKH OHJDO GRPDLQ 0DQ\ RI WKHVH FULWLFDO GLVFXVVLRQV LQFOXGH WKH
IROORZLQJ LQWHUUHODWHG QRWLRQV
•
UHSUHVHQWDWLYLW\ IRU LQVWDQFH WR ZKDW GHJUHH GRHV D
FRUSXV WKDW LV VWXGLHG UHSUHVHQW WKH RUGLQDU\" UHDGHUV
RU KHDUHUV RI D ODQJXDJH GLDOHFW RU YDULHW\ RU WKH
GUDIWHUVZULWHUV RI D OHJDO WH[W VXFK DV D VWDWXWH RU D
FRQWUDFW"
6HH HJ )LUH ,QV ([FK Y 2OWPDQQV 3G 8WDK 3HRSOH
Y +DUULV 1:G ² 0LFK 6WDWH Y 5DVDERXW 3G ²
8WDK ,Q UH $GRSWLRQ RI %DE\ (= 3G ² 8WDK /HH -
FRQFXUULQJ %ULHI IRU $PLFL &XULDH &RUSXV/LQJXLVWLFV 6FKRODUV 3URIHVVRUV %ULDQ 6ORFXP
6WHIDQ 7K *ULHV DQG /DZUHQFH 6RODQ ,Q 6XSSRUW RI (PSOR\HHV DW ² %RVWRFN Y &OD\WRQ
&W\ 6 &W 1R >KHUHLQDIWHU %ULHI IRU $PLFL &XULDH &RUSXV
/LQJXLVWLFV 6FKRODUV@ %ULHI $PLFXV &XULDH RI *XQ 2ZQHUV RI $P *XQ 2ZQHUV )RXQG 7KH
+HOOHU )RXQG &RQVHUYDWLYH /HJDO 'HI DQG (GXF )XQG 'RZQVL]H '& )RXQG
'RZQVL]H'&RUJ DQG 5HVWRULQJ /LEHUW\ $FWLRQ &RPP LQ 6XSSRUW RI 3HWLWLRQHUV DW 1<
6WDWH 5LIOH 3LVWRO $VV·Q ,QF Y &LW\ RI 1< 6 &W 1R 6HH HJ 6WHIDQ 7K *ULHV &RUSXV $SSURDFKHV WR 2UGLQDU\ 0HDQLQJ LQ /HJDO
,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ LQ 7+( 5287/('*( +$1'%22. 2) )25(16,& /,1*8,67,&6 0DOFROP
&RXOWKDUG HW DO HGV G HG 7KRPDV 5 /HH 6WHSKHQ & 0RXULWVHQ -XGJLQJ 2UGLQDU\
0HDQLQJ <$/( /- ² /DZUHQFH 0 6RODQ 3DWWHUQV LQ /DQJXDJH DQG
/DZ ,17·/ - /$1*8$*( / /DZUHQFH 0 6RODQ &DQ &RUSXV /LQJXLVWLFV +HOS
0DNH 2ULJLQDOLVP 6FLHQWLILF" <$/( /- ) ² 6WHSKHQ & 0RXULWVHQ +DUG
&DVHV DQG +DUG 'DWD $VVHVVLQJ &RUSXV /LQJXLVWLFV DV DQ (PSLULFDO 3DWK WR 3ODLQ 0HDQLQJ
&2/80 6&, 7(&+ / 5(9 ² >KHUHLQDIWHU 0RXULWVHQ +DUG &DVHV DQG
+DUG 'DWD@ 6WHSKHQ & 0RXULWVHQ 7KH 'LFWLRQDU\ LV 1RW D )RUWUHVV 'HILQLWLRQDO )DOODFLHV
DQG D &RUSXV%DVHG $SSURDFK WR 3ODLQ 0HDQLQJ %<8 / 5(9 >KHUHLQDIWHU 0RXULWVHQ 7KH 'LFWLRQDU\ LV 1RW D )RUWUHVV@
6HH 0RXULWVHQ +DUG &DVHV DQG +DUG 'DWD VXSUD QRWH DW ² ²
² /HH 0RXULWVHQ VXSUD QRWH DW 6HH (YDQ & =ROGDQ &RUSXV /LQJXLVWLFV DQG WKH 'UHDP RI 2EMHFWLYLW\ 6(721 +$// / 5(9 ² $Q\D %HUQVWHLQ 'HPRFUDWL]LQJ ,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ
:0
0$5< / 5(9 ² &DULVVD %\UQH +HVVLFN &RUSXV
/LQJXLVWLFV DQG WKH &ULPLQDO /DZ %<8 / 5(9 ² 6HH *5,(6 VXSUD QRWH DW ²
@
•
•
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
XQFHUWDLQW\ IRU LQVWDQFH ZKDW LV WKH GHJUHH RI
XQFHUWDLQW\ RU YDULDELOLW\ WKDW FRPHV ZLWK WKH UHVXOWV RI
D FRUSXV DQDO\VLV" :RXOG WKH UHVXOW RI WKH FRUSXV DQDO\VLV
SUHVHQWHG WR VD\ D MXGJH EH FRPSOHWHO\ GLIIHUHQW LI WKH
FRUSXV RU WKH VDPSOH IURP WKH FRUSXV KDG EHHQ RQO\
VOLJKWO\ GLIIHUHQW"
VLJQLILFDQFH DQG HIIHFW VL]H DUH JHQHUDO HPSLULFDOVRFLDO
VFLHQFH TXHVWLRQV :KHQ DUH WKH UHVXOWV RI D FRUSXV
DQDO\VLV FOHDU HQRXJK" :KHQ FDQ ZH WDNH LW DV
HVWDEOLVKHG WKDW D FRUSXV UHVXOW LV QRW MXVW GXH WR UDQGRP
YDULDELOLW\ LQ WKH GDWD" :KHQ FDQ ZH DVVXPH WKDW WKH
HIIHFW ZH VHH LQ WKH GDWD LV VWURQJ HQRXJK WR EH UHOHYDQW"
8QIRUWXQDWHO\ VRPH RI WKH FULWLFDO GLVFXVVLRQV RI /&/ DUH D
ELW IRU ODFN RI D EHWWHU ZRUG ´PLVJXLGHGµ EHFDXVH WKH\ DUJXH DJDLQVW
&/ DSSOLFDWLRQV IRU OHJDO LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ EXW WKH\ GR VR RQ WKH EDVLV
RI DQ H[WUHPHO\ QDUURZ YLHZ RI FRUSXV OLQJXLVWLFV 7KLV YLHZ RI
FRUSXV OLQJXLVWLFV KDV EHHQ SURPRWHG E\ WKH HDUO\
DGRSWHUVSURPRWHUV EXW GRHV VLPSO\ QRW GR MXVWLFH WR FRUSXV
OLQJXLVWLFV DV D GLVFLSOLQH DQG ZKDW LW FDQ RIIHU WR OHJDO VFKRODUVKLS
DQG SUDFWLFH $V , KDYH DUJXHG HOVHZKHUH &/ LV D GLYHUVH DQG
PHWKRGRORJLFDOO\ KHWHURJHQHRXV ILHOG DW WKH LQWHUVHFWLRQ RI PXOWLSOH
ILHOGV LQFOXGLQJ EXW QRW OLPLWHG WR JHQHUDO OLQJXLVWLFV WKH GLJLWDO
KXPDQLWLHV FRPSXWHU VFLHQFH VWDWLVWLFV DQG GDWDLQIRUPDWLRQ
VFLHQFH 1RWH WKDW WKHVH ILYH ILHOGV DW OHDVW WKH ODWWHU WKUHH EXW
DOVR ODUJH SDUWV RI WKH IRUPHU WZR RIWHQ LQYROYH VXEVWDQWLDO
H[SHUWLVH LQ VWDWLVWLFDOTXDQWLWDWLYH PHWKRGV DV ZHOO DV GDWD
SURFHVVLQJFRPSXWDWLRQDO PHWKRGRORJLHV DQG WKDW LV WUXH RI FRUSXV
OLQJXLVWLFV SURSHU DV ZHOO +RZHYHU LI RQH ORRNV DW WKH VWDWLVWLFDO
DQG FRPSXWDWLRQDO PHWKRGV XVHG LQ PRVW /&/ DSSOLFDWLRQV RQO\ D
WLQ\ VOLYHU RI ZKDW LV WKH GDLO\ EUHDGDQGEXWWHU WR PDQ\ FRUSXV
OLQJXLVWV LV UHSUHVHQWHG ,Q IDFW &/ LV RIWHQ UHGXFHG WR OLWWOH PRUH
WKDQ HQWHULQJ D OHJDOO\ UHOHYDQW WHUP LQWR VRPH VHDUFK HQJLQH DQG
FRXQWLQJ RU UHSRUWLQJ WKH UHVXOWLQJ IUHTXHQFLHV
7KLV LV QRW XVHIXO LQ VHYHUDO ZD\V )LUVW WKLV SUDFWLFH
PDNHV /&/ PRUH YXOQHUDEOH WR YDULRXV OLQHV RI DWWDFN LQ WKH
OHJDO OLWHUDWXUH EHFDXVH LI PDQ\ OHJDO VFKRODUV RU SUDFWLWLRQHUV
6HH 6WHIDQ 7K *ULHV ([SORULQJ 9DULDELOLW\ :LWKLQ DQG %HWZHHQ &RUSRUD
6RPH 0HWKRGRORJLFDO &RQVLGHUDWLRQV &25325$ ² 67()$1 7+ *5,(6 67$7,67,&6 )25 /,1*8,67,&6 :,7+ 5 $ 35$&7,&$/
,1752'8&7,21 ² G HG 6HH VRXUFH FLWHG VXSUD QRWH 6HH *ULHV VXSUD QRWH 6HH JHQHUDOO\ $ 35$&7,&$/ +$1'%22. 2) &25386 /,1*8,67,&6 0DJDOL 3DTXRW
6WHIDQ 7K *ULHV HGV 6HH /HH
0RXULWVHQ VXSUD QRWH DW %522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO ZKR GR QRW HQJDJH LQ /&/ WKHPVHOYHV RQO\ VHH D VPDOO UDQJH RI
LWV DSSOLFDWLRQ &/ LV UHGXFHG WR WKH SRLQW RI FDULFDWXUH IRU WKHP
,I QR RQH ZRXOG HYHU WKLQN RI UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH GLVFLSOLQH RI ODZ
WR WKH FDULFDWXUH RI DQ DPEXODQFHFKDVLQJ ODZ\HU WKHQ ZK\
ZRXOG RQH UHGXFH &/ WR HQWHULQJ D ZRUG IURP D VWDWXWH LQWR D
VHDUFK ILHOG RQ D FRUSXV ZHEVLWH" 7KXV LW LV PXFK HDVLHU IRU OHJDO
VFKRODUV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV ZKR RQO\ NQRZ D KLJKO\ LPSRYHULVKHG
YHUVLRQ RI /&/ WR FULWLFL]H /&/ DSSOLFDWLRQV WKDQ LW ZRXOG EH LI
WKH IXOO UDQJH RI VRSKLVWLFDWLRQ &/ ZDV XVHG DOO WKH WLPH
6HFRQG WKLV NLQG RI UHGXFWLRQLVW /&/ DOVR XQGHUPLQHV
WKH VWUHQJWK RI WKH FDVHV WKDW &/ FDQ PDNH )RU LQVWDQFH LI D &/
SRLQW LV PDGH LQ D OHJDO FDVH RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH VLPSOHVW
IUHTXHQF\ GDWD DORQH LW LV HDVLHU WR FODLP WKDW WKH UHVXOWV DUH QRW
UHSUHVHQWDWLYH WKDW WKH\ DUH DQ DUWLIDFW RI WKH VSHFLILF
FRPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH FRUSXV RU WKDW WKH\ DUH QRW GLIIHUHQW IURP
FKDQFH WKDQ LI WKDW VDPH FRUSXVOLQJXLVWLF SRLQW KDG EHHQ
VXSSRUWHG PRUH FRPSUHKHQVLYHO\ )RU H[DPSOH LW LV HDV\ WR
FULWLFL]H D FRUSXVOLQJXLVWLF DQDO\VLV DV QDwYH LI LW FODLPV WKDW
EHFDXVH D FHUWDLQ ZRUG RFFXUV Q WLPHV LQ D FRUSXV RI ILOHV
WKDW ZRUG LV ´LQ ZLGHVSUHDG XVHµ LI WKDW DQDO\VLV GRHV QRW DOVR
GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW WKH Q XVHV RI WKDW ZRUG DUH DWWHVWHG LQ PDQ\
RI WKH ILOHV UDWKHU WKDQ MXVW WKUHH RU IRXU RI WKHP
,Q RWKHU ZRUGV , ZHOFRPH WKH HPHUJHQFH RI /&/ DV D ILHOG
RI LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ DQG WKH YLJRU ZLWK ZKLFK QHZ DSSOLFDWLRQV
HPHUJH ZLWKLQ LW EXW PDQ\ SUDFWLWLRQHUV VKRRW WKHPVHOYHV LQ WKH
IRRW E\ FRQWLQXLQJ WR SURPRWH D YHUVLRQ RI &/ WKDW KDV VR PDQ\
ZHDNQHVVHV $FFRUGLQJO\ VRPH RI WKH VNHSWLFLVP WKDW /&/
HQJHQGHUV LQ WKH OHJDO ILHOG LV XQVXUSULVLQJ 7KHUHIRUH LQ WKLV
SDSHU , ZLOO GLVFXVV D IHZ DSSOLFDWLRQV WKDW VKRZFDVH WKH
UDQJH³WKH DFWXDO SRWHQWLDO³RI PHWKRGV SURSHU &/ KDV WR RIIHU
WR OHJDO VFKRODUVKLS DQG SUDFWLFH 6SHFLILFDOO\ 3DUW , RI WKLV
DUWLFOH LV DQ LQGHSWK VWXG\ RI KRZ WKH ZRUGV JHQGHU DQG VH[ DUH
GLVWULEXWHG LQ FRUSRUD EHWZHHQ WKH V DQG WKH V DQG KRZ
RQH QHHGV WR VWXG\ WKDW TXHVWLRQ LQ SDUWLFXODU , ZLOO VKRZ WKDW PHUHO\ UHSRUWLQJ IUHTXHQFLHV RI RFFXUUHQFH LV LQVXIILFLHQW
DQG WKDW WKH VRFDOOHG GLVSHUVLRQ RI HOHPHQWV QHHGV WR EH
FRQVLGHUHG DV ZHOO DQG KRZ WKH XQFHUWDLQW\YRODWLOLW\ RI
FRUSXV UHVXOWV FDQ EH FRQWH[WXDOL]HG 3DUW ,, ZLOO WKHQ KLJKOLJKW WKH SLWIDOOV RI DSSO\LQJ D FXUUHQWO\ IDVKLRQDEOH
PHWKRG³YHFWRUVSDFH VHPDQWLFV³WR /&/ TXHVWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ
ZRUG PHDQLQJV DQG SURSRVH D VROXWLRQ WR DW OHDVW RQH NH\
SUREOHP RI WKLV PHWKRG WKDW /&/ SUDFWLWLRQHUV DUH QRW \HW DZDUH
@
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
RI 3DUW ,,, ZLOO RIIHU VRPH FRQFOXVLRQV UHJDUGLQJ WKH SRWHQWLDO
RI /&/ IRU OHJDO LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ EXW DOVR KLJKOLJKW VRPH RI WKH
ULVNV DQG SLWIDOOV WKDW FDQ DULVH IURP D SUHPDWXUH DQG
LQFRPSOHWH DGRSWLRQ RI /&/ $V 3DUWV , DQG ,, ZLOO , EHOLHYH
DPSO\ GHPRQVWUDWH /&/ UHTXLUHV PRUH WKDQ FDQ EH DFTXLUHG LQ
D RQH RU WZRGD\ ZRUNVKRS³OHJDO SUDFWLWLRQHUV ZKR DUH QRW
WUDLQHG LQ OLQJXLVWLFV FRUSXV OLQJXLVWLFV GDWD VFLHQFH RU VRFLDO
VFLHQFH VWDWLVWLFDO PHWKRGV VKRXOG WKLQN WZLFH EHIRUH UXVKLQJ WR
DGRSW /&/ PHWKRGV DQG WKHUHE\ KDUP OHJDO VFKRODUVKLS LQ
JHQHUDO E\ SURPRWLQJ UHVHDUFK WKDW LV QRW XS WR WKH VWDQGDUGV
RI WKH GLVFLSOLQH WKH VHULRXVQHVV RI /&/ LQ SDUWLFXODU E\
DOORZLQJ FULWLFV RI /&/ WR DWWDFN LW EDVHG RQ PLVDSSOLFDWLRQ RU
PLVUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RU SDUWLHV LQ FRXUW E\ QRW DIIRUGLQJ WKHP
WKH KLJKTXDOLW\ ZRUN WKH\ VKRXOG EH HQWLWOHG WR ,
*(1'(5 $1' 6(; ,1 7+( 6 $1' 7+(5($)7(5
,Q WKLV 3DUW , GLVFXVV KRZ WKH ZRUGV JHQGHU DQG VH[ DUH
GLVWULEXWHG LQ FRUSXV GDWD IURP WKH V WR WKH V , GHILQH
WKH FUXFLDO &/ VWDWLVWLFV UHTXLUHG IRU WKLV GLVFXVVLRQ³IUHTXHQF\
DQG GLVSHUVLRQ³DQG VKRZ KRZ ERWK WKH IUHTXHQF\ DQG WKH
GLVSHUVLRQ RI JHQGHU JUHZ FRQVLGHUDEO\ RYHU WLPH DQG KRZ LW LV
GLVSHUVLRQ QRW IUHTXHQF\ WKDW SURYLGHV D PRUH DFFXUDWH SLFWXUH
RI FKDQJHRYHUWLPH LQ WKLV SDUWLFXODU DQDO\VLV
$
7KH &RUSXV )UHTXHQF\ RI *HQGHU
,Q D UHFHQW DPLFXV EULHI ILOHG ZLWK WKH 6XSUHPH &RXUW RI WKH
8QLWHG 6WDWHV 3URIHVVRUV 6ORFXP *ULHV DQG 6RODQ VXEPLWWHG DQ
DQDO\VLV RI KRZ WKH ZRUG JHQGHU ZDV XVHG LQ WKH V ZKLFK ZDV
WKHQ DOVR FRPSDUHG WR KRZ WKH ZRUG VH[ ZDV XVHG DV ZHOO $V LV
FXVWRPDU\ LQ OLQJXLVWLFV , XVH LWDOLFV WR LQGLFDWH WKDW D ZRUG LV
PHQWLRQHG QRW XVHG DV LQ ´WKH ZRUG JRDW KDV IRXU OHWWHUVµ $PLFL
VXVSHFWHG WKDW JHQGHU ZDV HVVHQWLDOO\ D QRQZRUG LQ WKH V EXW
EHFDPH PRUH ZLGHVSUHDG RYHU WLPH LI WKDW WKHRU\ ZDV FRUUHFW DQG
LI LQVWHDG RI JHQGHU VSHDNHUV LQ WKH V XVHG WKH ZRUG VH[ RQH
PLJKW PDNH WKH FDVH WKDW WKH RULJLQDO IRUPXODWLRQ RI 7LWOH 9,,
,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR UHDOL]H WKRXJK WKDW WKH SRWHQWLDO RI /&/ LV PXFK JUHDWHU
WKDQ , FDQ GLVFXVV KHUH $Q\ PDWWHU RI OHJDO LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ LQ ZKLFK DQ RUGLQDU\ ODQJXDJH
XVHU·V LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI D WHUP D VHQWHQFH RU D ZKROH SDUDJUDSK LV DW VWDNH FDQ EHQHILW
IURP WKH NLQG RI EHWWHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI RUGLQDU\ ODQJXDJHPHDQLQJ WKDW /&/ SURYLGHV
7KLV LV DOVR WUXH IRU FDVHV LQ ZKLFK WKH PHDQLQJV RI ZRUGV PLJKW FKDQJH EHWZHHQ WKH
HQDFWPHQW RI D VWDWXWH DQG LWV LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ LQ D FRXUW RI ODZ $QG LW HYHQ ZRUNV WKH
RWKHU ZD\ URXQG /&/ FDQ KHOS ODZPDNHUV VHH ZKDW WKH SKUDVLQJ WKH\ FRQVLGHU IRU WKH
IRUPXODWLRQ RI D ODZ ZLOO PRVW OLNHO\ PHDQ WR WKH RUGLQDU\ UHDGHU
6HH %ULHI IRU $PLFL &XULDH &RUSXV/LQJXLVWLFV 6FKRODUV VXSUD QRWH DW ²
%522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO ´EHFDXVH RI VH[µ FDQ EH XQGHUVWRRG DV UHIHUULQJ WR FRQFHSWV IRU
ZKLFK WRGD\ ZH ZRXOG XVH WKH ZRUG JHQGHU 7KLV FRXOG VXSSRUW
WKH DUJXPHQW WKDW 7LWOH 9,, ZDV LQWHQGHG WR SURWHFW WUDQVJHQGHU
SHRSOH DJDLQVW GLVFULPLQDWLRQ
+RZ ZRXOG RQH VKRZ WKDW WKDW JHQGHU ZDV HVVHQWLDOO\ D
QRQZRUG LQ WKH V" 7KH QDWXUH RI PDQ\ /&/ DSSOLFDWLRQV VR
IDU ZRXOG OHDG WR WKH QRW XQUHDVRQDEOH H[SHFWDWLRQ WKDW RQH
VKRXOG GHWHUPLQH WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI JHQGHU LQ D SHUWLQHQW FRUSXV
VXFK DV WKH V FRPSRQHQW RI WKH &RUSXV RI +LVWRULFDO
$PHULFDQ (QJOLVK &2+$ WR VHH KRZ RIWHQ WKH ZRUG JHQGHU ZDV
XVHG DW WKH WLPH E\ WKH SRSXODWLRQ WKDW &2+$ UHSUHVHQWV $
VHDUFK LQ WKH GRZQORDGHG YHUVLRQ RI WKDW FRUSXV UHYHDOV WKDW
WKHUH DUH WZHQW\QLQH LQVWDQFHV RI JHQGHU LQ WKH PLOOLRQ ZRUGV
UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH V LQ WKDW FRUSXV ZKLFK LV RIWHQ UHSRUWHG LQ
WKH SHU PLOOLRQ ZRUGV IRUPDW SPZ 7KLV QXPEHU
LV UDWKHU SUHFLVH EXW DFWXDOO\ KDUG WR LQWHUSUHW EHFDXVH LW LV QRW
REYLRXV ZKHWKHU WKDW LV IUHTXHQW RU UDUH RU KRZ RQH ZRXOG HYHQ
GHWHUPLQH WKDW 2QH RIWHQ XVHIXO KHXULVWLF LV WR GHWHUPLQH ZKDW
RWKHU ZRUGV KDYH WKDW VDPH IUHTXHQF\ LQ WKDW VDPH FRUSXV LV D OLVW RI ZRUGV ZLWK WKH VDPH IUHTXHQF\
SRXFKHV
SHQQDQWV
ZLQFHV
WK
RQHKRXU
FRQVSLUDFLHV VLPPHULQJ FRUQ KHUHWLFDO GLVSHQVHU
VXEGLYLGHG WLURV NHOORJ IXQGLQJ UHJHQHUDWLRQ
FRQVSLUH WUDQVFHQG OHJDJH IUDQFHVFR DGMHFWLYHV
RULJLQDWHV EDOOSRLQW GLVUXSWLQJ SRQFH SHDFHNHHSLQJ
VKDKDND VHQDWHKRXVH GHSRVLWRU\ ZLHQHU RXWOLYHG
7KH UHVXOW LV DW OHDVW VRPHZKDW PL[HG 2Q WKH RQH KDQG LW
LV FOHDU WKDW JHQGHU FDQQRW UHDOO\ EH FRQVLGHUHG D IUHTXHQW ZRUG
JLYHQ WKDW LW LV DV IUHTXHQW DV ZRUGV VXFK DV OHJDJH VKDKDND RU
WLURV ZKLFK DUH DUJXDEO\ QRW ZRUGV RI WKH (QJOLVK ODQJXDJH RU DV
IUHTXHQW DV ZRUGV VXFK DV KHUHWLFDO VXEGLYLGHG RU GHSRVLWRU\
ZKLFK DUH ZRUGV RI WKH (QJOLVK ODQJXDJH EXW TXLWH UDUH 2Q WKH
RWKHU KDQG JHQGHU LV DV IUHTXHQW DV VHHPLQJO\ PRUH RUGLQDU\
ZRUGV VXFK DV DGMHFWLYHV DQG FRQVSLUH DQG PD\EH UHJHQHUDWLRQ
ZKLFK DUH DUJXDEO\ QRW SDUWLFXODUO\ H[RWLF ZRUGV DQG SUREDEO\
NQRZQ WR HYHQ LQWHUPHGLDWHWRDGYDQFHG OHDUQHUV RI (QJOLVK
,Q RWKHU ZRUGV ZH QHHG WR UHFRJQL]H DQG DGGUHVV WKUHH
LPSRUWDQW LVVXHV WKDW DUH SUHYDOHQW LQ PDQ\ DSSOLFDWLRQV RI /&/ WR
6HH LG
6HH /HH 0RXULWVHQ VXSUD QRWH DW ²
6HH &RUSXV RI +LVWRULFDO $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK (1*/,6+&25325$ KWWSVZZZ
HQJOLVKFRUSRUDRUJFRKD >KWWSVSHUPDFF.+/=@
,G
@
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
OHJDO LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ )LUVW LQ VSLWH RI LWV SURPLQHQFH LQ WKH YDVW
PDMRULW\ RI /&/ DSSOLFDWLRQV IUHTXHQF\ RQ LWV RZQ LV SUREDEO\ QRW
WKH EHVW GHWHUPLQDQW RI RUGLQDULQHVV FRPPRQQHVV ZKHWKHU
VRPHWKLQJ LV LQ ZLGHVSUHDG XVH RU DV -XVWLFH 2·&RQQRU SXW LW LQ
WKH PDMRULW\ RSLQLRQ ZKHWKHU VRPHWKLQJ ´FRPHV WR PLQGµ ILUVW
6HFRQG ZH UHFRJQL]H WKDW IRU D TXHVWLRQ OLNH WKH FXUUHQW
RQH ZH ZRXOG DOVR EHQHILW IURP KDYLQJ KLVWRULFDO GDWD LQGLFDWLQJ
LH GDWD RI KRZ WKH XVH RI JHQGHU FKDQJHG RYHU WLPH 'LG LW LQGHHG
EHFRPH PRUH ´ZLGHVSUHDGµ RYHU WLPH" $QG KRZ DERXW WKH ZRUG VH[
KRZ ´RUGLQDU\µ RU ´FRPPRQµ LV WKDW DQG GLG WKDW FKDQJH DV ZHOO"
7KLUG IRU DOO &/ TXHVWLRQV³DOO RI WKHP³RQH QHHGV WR
UHFRJQL]H WKDW DQ\ FRUSXV LV D VDPSOH RI ODQJXDJH ZKLFK PHDQV
WKDW LW MXVW OLNH DQ\ VDPSOH LQ DQ\ VRFLDO VFLHQFH FRQWH[W PD\ RU
PD\ QRW EH UHSUHVHQWDWLYH RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ WKDW LW LV VXSSRVHG WR
UHSUHVHQW ,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR UHDOL]H WKDW WKLV LV QRW D SUREOHP WKDW
KDPSHUV RQO\ FRUSXVOLQJXLVWLF ZRUN³LW LV D SUREOHP RI QHDUO\ DOO
VFLHQFHV -XVW OLNH PHGLFDO UHVHDUFKHUV KRSH WKDW WKH VDPSOH RI
SDWLHQWV WKH\ WULHG D QHZ YDFFLQH RQ LV UHSUHVHQWDWLYH IRU HYHU\RQH
WR EH YDFFLQDWHG MXVW OLNH SV\FKRORJLVWV KRSH WKDW WKH WZHQW\\HDU
ROG XQGHUJUDGXDWH VWXGHQWV LQ WKHLU GHSDUWPHQWV WKH\ XVH LQ
WKHLU H[SHULPHQWV DUH UHSUHVHQWDWLYH IRU WKH SRSXODWLRQ RI WKH
86 RU HYHQ KXPDQV LQ JHQHUDO FRUSXV OLQJXLVWV UHTXLUH D
VLPLODU OHDS RI IDLWK WKDW WKH FRUSRUD WKH\ DUH VWXG\LQJ DUH
UHSUHVHQWDWLYH RI WKH ODQJXDJH DQ RUGLQDU\ VSHDNHUUHDGHU ZRXOG
KDYH HQFRXQWHUHG *LYHQ WKDW FRUSRUD DUH RIWHQ EDVHG RQ WKH
FROOHFWLRQ RI UDQGRPO\FKRVHQ WH[WV , VXEPLW WKDW WKH SUREDELOLW\
WKDW FRUSRUD UHSUHVHQW D VSHHFK FRPPXQLW\ LV RIWHQ KLJKHU WKDQ
WKH SUREDELOLW\ WKDW WZHQW\\HDU ROG XQGHUJUDGXDWHV LQ D
SV\FKRORJ\ GHSDUWPHQW DUH UHSUHVHQWHG RI DOO LQKDELWDQWV RI D
FRXQWU\ RU HYHQ MXVW D VWDWH 7KDQNIXOO\ SURSHU VDPSOLQJ
WHFKQLTXHV DQG VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV FDQ JR D ORQJ ZD\ LQ KHOSLQJ
HQVXUH D FHUWDLQ GHJUHH RI UREXVWQHVV RI D FRUSXV DQDO\VLV
,Q ZKDW IROORZV ZH ZLOO DGGUHVV HDFK RI WKHVH WKUHH LVVXHV
E\ FRQVLGHULQJ ERWK GLVSHUVLRQ DQG IUHTXHQF\ VHSDUDWHO\ WKH WHPSRUDO DQG KLVWRULFDO GHYHORSPHQW RI KHUH WKH ZRUGV
JHQGHU DQG VH[ DQG UREXVWQHVV RI UHVXOWV DQG VDPSOLQJ
XQFHUWDLQW\ ([DPLQLQJ WKHVH WKUHH GUDZEDFNV RI /&/ ZLOO VKHG
OLJKW RQ WKH LVVXHV WKDW SUDFWLWLRQHUV FUHDWH E\ PLVDSSO\LQJ &/
ZLWKLQ WKH FRQWH[W RI OHJDO GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ
6PLWK Y 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 86 VHH DOVR 67()$1 7+ *5,(6
7(1 /(&785(6 21 &25386/,1*8,67,& $3352$&+(6 $33/,&$7,216 )25 86$*(%$6('
$1' 36<&+2/,1*8,67,& 5(6($5&+ ² 7KRPDV )X\LQ /L HW DO HGV >KHUHLQDIWHU 7(1 /(&785(6 21 &25386/,1*8,67,& $3352$&+(6@
'RXJODV %LEHU 5HSUHVHQWDWLYHQHVV LQ &RUSXV 'HVLJQ /,7(5$5<
/,1*8,67,& &20387,1* %522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
%
>9RO 7KH 'LVSHUVLRQ RI *HQGHU DQG 6H[
'LVSHUVLRQ :KDW ,V ,W DQG +RZ 'R :H 0HDVXUH ,W"
2QH RI WKH FHQWUDO QRWLRQV LQ WKH GLVFXVVLRQ RI RUGLQDU\ RU
FRPPRQ PHDQLQJ LV REYLRXVO\ FRPPRQQHVV ,Q OLQJXLVWLFV LQ
JHQHUDO WKH FRPPRQQHVV RI D OLQJXLVWLF HOHPHQW VXFK DV D ZRUG
UHIHUV WR WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK D ZRUG LV LQ ZLGHVSUHDG XVH DQG WKXV
NQRZQ WR PRVW RU DOO QDWLYH VSHDNHUV RI D ODQJXDJH /LQJXLVWV KDYH
WUDGLWLRQDOO\ EHHQ XVLQJ WZR PHWKRGV WR DSSUR[LPDWH FRPPRQQHVV
SV\FKROLQJXLVWLF H[SHULPHQWDWLRQ DQG FRUSXV IUHTXHQF\ 7KH IRUPHU
LV WKH JROG VWDQGDUG DQG LQYROYHV PHDVXULQJ VSHHG RI OH[LFDO LH
ZRUG DFFHVV KRZ PXFK WLPH GR VSHDNHUV QHHG WR UHFRJQL]H D ZRUG
WKDW LV IODVKHG WR WKHP RQWR D FRPSXWHU VFUHHQ &RPPRQ ZRUGV DUH
UHFRJQL]HG PXFK IDVWHU WKDQ XQFRPPRQ ZRUGV 7KH ODWWHU LV DQ
REVHUYDWLRQDO DSSUR[LPDWLRQ DQG LQYROYHV FRXQWLQJ KRZ RIWHQ D
ZRUG RFFXUV LQ D FRUSXV DQG WKDW LV ZKDW YLUWXDOO\ DOO /&/ FRUSXV
DSSOLFDWLRQV UHO\ H[FOXVLYHO\ RQ IUHTXHQF\SUREDELOLW\ KRZ RIWHQ
GRHV VRPHWKLQJ RFFXU LQ D FRUSXV"
RU FRQGLWLRQDO
IUHTXHQF\SUREDELOLW\ KRZ RIWHQ GRHV VRPHWKLQJ RFFXU LQ D FRUSXV
JLYHQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI VRPHWKLQJ HOVH FORVH E\" +RZHYHU UHFHQW VWXGLHV KDYH DUJXHG DQG KDYH DOVR
HPSLULFDOO\ VKRZQ WKDW WKH QRWLRQ RI GLVSHUVLRQ PLJKW EH D EHWWHU
FRUSXVEDVHG RSHUDWLRQDOL]DWLRQ RI FRPPRQQHVV WKDQ IUHTXHQF\ RU
PLQLPDOO\ VKRXOG EH XVHG WR DXJPHQW IUHTXHQF\EDVHG
LQIRUPDWLRQ 'LVSHUVLRQ DV XVHG LQ &/ LV TXDQWLILHG ZLWK YDOXHV
WKDW IDOO RQ D FRQWLQXXP EHWZHHQ WZR H[WUHPHV
•
•
D ZRUG FDQ EH HYHQO\ GLVWULEXWHG LQ D FRUSXV ZKLFK
PHDQV WKH FKDQFH \RX VHH LW ZKHQ \RX SLFN D FRUSXV SDUW
DW UDQGRP LV KLJK )RU H[DPSOH SLFN DQ\ ILFWLRQ ERRN LQ
D OLEUDU\ DQG FKDQFHV DUH YHU\ KLJK \RX ZLOO ILQG WKH ZRUG
KRXVH WKLQN RU LPSRUWDQW LQ LW
D ZRUG FDQ EH FOXPSLO\ GLVWULEXWHG ZKLFK PHDQV WKH
FKDQFH \RX VHH LW ZKHQ \RX SLFN D FRUSXV SDUW DW UDQGRP
LV ORZ &KDQFHV DUH YHU\ ORZ WKDW WKH VDPH ILFWLRQ ERRN
6HH 5 +DUDOG %DD\HQ 'HP\WKRORJL]LQJ WKH :RUG )UHTXHQF\ (IIHFW $
'LVFULPLQDWLYH /HDUQLQJ 3HUVSHFWLYH 0(17$/ /(;,&21 6HH /HH
0RXULWVHQ VXSUD QRWH DW ²
6HH HJ 6WHIDQ 7K *ULHV 'LVSHUVLRQV DQG $GMXVWHG )UHTXHQFLHV LQ &RUSRUD ,17·/ - &25386 /,1*8,67,&6 >KHUHLQDIWHU *ULHV 'LVSHUVLRQV DQG $GMXVWHG
)UHTXHQFLHV@ 6WHIDQ 7K *ULHV 'LVSHUVLRQV DQG $GMXVWHG )UHTXHQFLHV LQ &RUSRUD )XUWKHU
([SORUDWLRQV LQ &25386/,1*8,67,& $33/,&$7,216 ² 6WHIDQ 7K *ULHV HW DO
HGV >KHUHLQDIWHU *ULHV )XUWKHU ([SORUDWLRQV@ 6WHIDQ 7K *ULHV $QDO\]LQJ 'LVSHUVLRQ
LQ $ 35$&7,&$/ +$1'%22. 2) &25386 /,1*8,67,&6 VXSUD QRWH DW @
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
\RX SLFNHG ZLOO FRQWDLQ WKH ZRUGV FDWDFO\VP GLVLQWHU RU
SODWLWXGLQRXV LQ LW
7KH UHODWLRQ RI GLVSHUVLRQ WR FRPPRQQHVV DV GHILQHG DERYH
LV UHODWLYHO\ VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG LQ RUGHU IRU D ZRUG WR EH FRPPRQ
PDQ\PRVW VSHDNHUV PXVW KDYH OHDUQHG LW DQG DV $PEULGJH HW DO
VWDWH WKDW
>*@LYHQ D FHUWDLQ QXPEHU RI H[SRVXUHV WR D VWLPXOXV RU D FHUWDLQ
DPRXQW RI WUDLQLQJ >LH JLYHQ D FHUWDLQ IUHTXHQF\ RU ZKHQ IUHTXHQF\
LV KHOG FRQVWDQW@ OHDUQLQJ LV DOZD\V EHWWHU ZKHQ H[SRVXUHV RU WUDLQLQJ
WULDOV DUH GLVWULEXWHG RYHU VHYHUDO VHVVLRQV WKDQ ZKHQ WKH\ DUH PDVVHG
LQWR RQH VHVVLRQ 7KLV ILQGLQJ LV H[WUHPHO\ UREXVW LQ PDQ\ GRPDLQV RI
KXPDQ FRJQLWLRQ
$PEULGJH HW DO GR QRW PHQWLRQ WKH ZRUG GLVSHUVLRQ KHUH
GLUHFWO\ EXW LQVWHDG PHQWLRQ ZKDW ZRXOG EH LWV GLUHFW FRUSXV
OLQJXLVWLF RSHUDWLRQDOL]DWLRQ WKH IDFW WKDW D ZRUG RFFXUV LQ PDQ\
GLIIHUHQW ORFDWLRQV LQ D VSHHFK FRPPXQLW\ 6LPLODUO\ $GHOPDQ
HW DO SRLQW RXW WKDW ´WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK WKH QXPEHU RI UHSHDWHG
H[SRVXUHV WR D SDUWLFXODU LWHP DIIHFWV WKDW LWHP·V ODWHU UHWULHYDO
GHSHQGV RQ WKH VHSDUDWLRQ RI WKH H[SRVXUHV LQ WLPH DQG
FRQWH[Wµ DQG RI FRXUVH WKH FRUSXVOLQJXLVWLF HTXLYDOHQW WR WKLV
´VHSDUDWLRQ RI WKH H[SRVXUHV LQ WLPH DQG FRQWH[Wµ LV GLVSHUVLRQ
7KH\ DOVR VKRZ WKDW GLVSHUVLRQ LV D EHWWHU DQG PRUH XQLTXH
SUHGLFWRU RI ZRUG QDPLQJ DQG OH[LFDO GHFLVLRQ WLPHV WKDQ WRNHQ
IUHTXHQF\ DQG WKH\ OLNH (OOLV GUDZ DQ H[SOLFLW FRQQHFWLRQ WR
$QGHUVRQ·V UDWLRQDO DQDO\VLV RI PHPRU\ 0RUH HYLGHQFH IRU WKH
LPSRUWDQFH RI GLVSHUVLRQ LV RIIHUHG E\ %DD\HQ ZKR LQFOXGHV D
GLVSHUVLRQ PHDVXUH DV D SUHGLFWRU LQ D PXOWLIDFWRULDO PRGHO WKDW
XOWLPDWHO\ VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH HIIHFW RI IUHTXHQF\ ZKHQ
FRQVLGHUHG D PHUH FRJQLWLYH UHSHWLWLRQFRXQWHU DV RSSRVHG WR
VRPH RWKHU FRJQLWLYH PHFKDQLVP LV LQ IDFW HSLSKHQRPHQDO DQG
FDQ SDUWO\ EH H[SODLQHG E\ GLVSHUVLRQ DQG *ULHV ZKR VKRZV
WKDW OH[LFDO GHFLVLRQ WLPHV DUH PRUH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK GLVSHUVLRQ
PHDVXUHV WKDQ IUHTXHQF\
6HH VRXUFH FLWHG VXSUD QRWH %HQ $PEULGJH HW DO 7KH 'LVWULEXWHG /HDUQLQJ (IIHFW IRU &KLOGUHQ·V $FTXLVLWLRQ RI
DQ $EVWUDFW 6\QWDFWLF &RQVWUXFWLRQ &2*1,7,9( '(9 HPSKDVLV DGGHG -DPHV 6 $GHOPDQ HW DO &RQWH[WXDO 'LYHUVLW\ 1RW :HRUG )UHTXHQF\ 'HWHUPLQHV
:RUG1DPLQJ DQG /H[LFDO GHFLVLRQ 7LPHV 36<&+2/2*,&$/ 6&, 6HH LG 1LFN & (OOLV /DQJXDJH $FTXLVLWLRQ DV 5DWLRQDO &RQWLQJHQF\ /HDUQLQJ
$33/,(' /,1*8,67,&6 ² 6HH %DD\HQ VXSUD QRWH DW ²
6HH *ULHV )XUWKHU ([SORUDWLRQV VXSUD QRWH DW 67()$1 7+ *5,(6 7(1
/(&785(6 21 &25386 /,1*8,67,&6 :,7+ 5 $33/,&$7,216 )25 86$*(%$6(' $1'
36<&+2/,1*8,67,& 5(6($5&+ >KHUHLQDIWHU *5,(6 7(1 /(&785(6 21 &25386
/,1*8,67,&6 :,7+ 5@
%522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO 7KHUH DUH PDQ\ PHDVXUHV WKDW KDYH EHHQ SURSRVHG EXW
DUJXDEO\ RQH RI WKH EHVW PHDVXUHV ULJKW QRZ LV 'HYLDWLRQ RI
3URSRUWLRQV '3 ZKLFK LV FRPSXWHG DV VKRZQ LQ ZKHUH YL
UHIHUV WR WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI WKH OLQJXLVWLF LWHP LQ TXHVWLRQ LQ WKH L
WK FRUSXV SDUW I UHIHUV WR WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI WKH OLQJXLVWLF LWHP LQ
TXHVWLRQ LQ WKH ZKROH FRUSXV DQG VL UHIHUV WR WKH VL]H RI WKH LWK
FRUSXV SDUW DV D IUDFWLRQ RI WKH VL]H RI WKH ZKROH FRUSXV
௩
‫ ܲܦ‬ൌ ͲǤͷ ൈ σ௡௜ୀଵ ቚ ೔ െ ‫ݏ‬௜ ቚ
௙
:KHQ '3 LV ORZ LH UHODWLYHO\ FORVH WR LWV WKHRUHWLFDO
PLQLPXP RI WKHQ ZRUGV DUH YHU\ HYHQO\ GLVWULEXWHG WKURXJKRXW
WKH FRUSXV³WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI D ZRUG LQ DQ\ SDUW RI D FRUSXV LV
IDLUO\ FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK WKH VL]HV RI WKH FRUSXV SDUW³DQG WKHQ WKH
ZRUG FDQ EH FRQVLGHUHG FRPPRQ UHFDOO WKH DERYH H[DPSOH RI WKH
WKUHH FRPPRQ ZRUGV LQ D UDQGRPO\FKRVHQ ZRUN RI ILFWLRQ 2Q
WKH RWKHU KDQG ZKHQ '3 LV KLJK LH UHODWLYHO\ FORVH WR LWV
WKHRUHWLFDO PLQLPXP RI WKHQ ZRUGV DUH YHU\ XQHYHQO\ RU
FOXPSLO\ GLVWULEXWHG WKURXJKRXW WKH FRUSXV )RU H[DPSOH PRVW RU
DOO LQVWDQFHV RI D ZRUG PLJKW EH FOXPSHG WRJHWKHU LQ MXVW RQH YHU\
VPDOO FRUSXV SDUW VXFK ZRUGV DUH RIWHQ KLJKO\ VSHFLDOL]HG
WHUPLQRORJ\ DQG XQOLNHO\ WR EH FRPPRQ , ZLOO SURYLGH D YDULHW\
RI H[WUHPHO\ FOXPSLO\ GLVWULEXWHG ZRUGV EHORZ ZKHQ , GLVFXVV
JHQGHU &UXFLDOO\ DQG DV , ZLOO UHWXUQ WR EHORZ ZRUGV FDQ KDYH WKH
VDPH IUHTXHQF\ EXW YHU\ GLIIHUHQW GLVSHUVLRQV
'LVSHUVLRQ 5HVXOWV )RU *HQGHU DQG 6H[ LQ WKH V
:KDW LV WKH '3YDOXH IRU JHQGHU LQ WKH V" ,W LV
-XVW DV ZLWK IUHTXHQF\ WKH TXHVWLRQ DULVHV DV WR ZKDW
SUHFLVHO\ WKDW YDOXH PHDQV 6LQFH '3 IDOOV LQWR WKH LQWHUYDO >@
WKLV FOHDUO\ LV D YDOXH RQ WKH KLJK HQG PHDQLQJ JHQGHU VHHPV WR
EH GLVWULEXWHG YHU\ FOXPSLO\ EXW LW LV DJDLQ LQVWUXFWLYH WR
GHWHUPLQH ZKDW RWKHU ZRUGV KDYH DERXW WKH VDPH GLVSHUVLRQ $
UDQGRP VHOHFWLRQ RI ZRUGV ZLWK '3YDOXHV DV FORVH DV SRVVLEOH WR
DUH OLVWHG LQ RQH IRU HDFK OHWWHU RI WKH DOSKDEHW 6HH *ULHV 'LVSHUVLRQV DQG $GMXVWHG )UHTXHQFLHV VXSUD QRWH DW ²
,G DW ²
,G
,W LV ZRUWK SRLQWLQJ RXW WKH FRQVLGHUDEOH FRPSXWDWLRQDO HIIRUW UHTXLUHG IRU VXFK
DQDO\VHV 1RW RQO\ GRHV DOO WKLV QHHG WR EH SURJUDPPHG E\ WKH XVHU EXW RQH DOVR QHHGV TXLWH D
ELW RI FRPSXWLQJ WLPH &RPSXWLQJ GLVSHUVLRQ YDOXHV IRU WKH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ ZRUG W\SHV
LQ WKH V SDUW RI &2+$ UHTXLUHV PRUH WKDQ WKUHH KRXUV RI UDZ FRPSXWLQJ WLPH HYHQ ZKHQ
WKUHDGV DUH XVHG LQ SDUDOOHO IRU WKH PRUH OH[LFDOO\ GLYHUVH V SDUW RI &2+$ WKDW WLPH ZDV
QHDUO\ GRXEOHG 6HH &RUSXV RI +LVWRULFDO $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK VXSUD QRWH @
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
DN\
EULOOLDQWSWKDW
FDULFDWXUHG
GUDPEXLF
HPLO\WKHQ ILYHDQGWHQFHQW JULWWLQHVV KRPHURRP
LQYLWHGKHU MDPDLFDQEDVHG NOODL OHSDJH POI
QLHUNXVLL RXWEXW SXVHV TXLEEOHV UHYHDOHGSE\
VXSUDUDWLRQDO WRSRORJLFDOO\ XQUKHWRULFDO YLQFHQWGR
ZLLFWY [R \HDUWK ]DXWOD
,Q RWKHU ZRUGV JHQGHU LV DV GLVSHUVHG LQ WKH V DV
H[WUHPHO\ UDUH ZRUGV DQG W\SRVRSWLFDOFKDUDFWHU UHFRJQLWLRQ
HUURUV HJ EULOOLDQWSWKDW RU UHYHDOHGSE\ ZKHUH WKH
2&5 IXVHG WZR ZRUGV ZLWK D SDJH QXPEHU RU LQYLWHGKHU 2QH
PLJKW ZRQGHU ZK\ WKLV UHVXOW LV VR H[WUHPH HVSHFLDOO\ FRPSDUHG
WR WKH IUHTXHQF\ UHVXOWV IRU WKH VDPH ZRUG 7KH DQVZHU LV VLPSOH
WZHQW\ RI WKH WZHQW\QLQH LQVWDQFHV RI JHQGHU LQ WKH V RI
&2+$ RFFXU LQ D VLQJOH ILOH RI WKH ! FRUSXV ILOHV IRU WKDW
GHFDGH QDPHO\ +RUWHQVH &DOLVKHU·V QRYHO -RXUQDO IURP (OOLSVLD
DERXW D JHQGHUOHVV DOLHQ YLVLWLQJ (DUWK ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV
WKH IUHTXHQF\ YDOXH LV KLJKO\ PLVOHDGLQJ EHFDXVH LW LV RQO\ RQH
VXP RI RFFXUUHQFHV RYHU DOO FRUSXV SDUWV WKDW GRHV QRW VHH WKH
GLVWULEXWLRQ OHDGLQJ WR WKDW VXP³FOHDUO\ WKH IDFW WKDW WKLV QRYHO
ZDV VDPSOHG LQWR &2+$ V KDV D SURIRXQG LPSDFW RQ WKH
RYHUDOO IUHTXHQF\ ,I DQRWKHU WH[W KDG EHHQ VDPSOHG LQVWHDG RI
-RXUQDO IURP (OOLSVLD DQG WKDW RWKHU WH[W OLNH QHDUO\ DOO RWKHUV
GLG QRW FRQWDLQ JHQGHU DW DOO WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI JHQGHU LQ &2+$
V ZRXOG EH D PHUH WKLUG RI ZKDW LW LV QRZ
7KHUH DUH TXLWH D IHZ HUURUV RI WKLV W\SH LQ &2+$ VRPHWKLQJ WKDW XVHUV
QHHG WR EH DZDUH RI IRU KRZ WKH\ PLJKW DIIHFW FRXQWV DQG VWDWLVWLFV EDVHG RQ FRXQWV 7KH
HIIHFW LV SUREDEO\ QRW KXJH EXW QRWLFHDEOH )RU LQVWDQFH WKH WDEXODU ZOS ILOHV RI WKH V
VHHP WR FRQWDLQ PRUH WKDQ LQVWDQFHV RI LQFRUUHFW WRNHQL]DWLRQV ZLWK SDJH QXPEHUV
¶EDNHG· LQ ZLWK WKH WZR VXUURXQGLQJ ZRUGV WKH 5 UHJH[ XVHG ZDV ´>D]@S??G>D]@µ
WKH ILOH ILFBBW[W! DORQH KDV VXFK HUURUV LQ LW DQG LI RQH GRHV D IUHTXHQF\
FRXQW RI DOO ZOS ILOHV RI WKH V GHFDGH RI &2+$ WKHVH WRNHQL]DWLRQ HUURUV PLVV FDVHV RI WKH FDVHV RI DQG FDVHV RI WR HWF ,G
6HH JHQHUDOO\ +257(16( &$/,6+(5 -2851$/ )520 (//,36,$ 7KLV LV SDUWLFXODUO\ LQWHUHVWLQJ LQ KRZ LW UHODWHV WR RQH RI /HH
0RXULWVHQ·V
SRLQWV RI FULWLTXH RI -XGJH 3RVQHU·V XVH RI *RRJOH 6HH /HH 0RXULWVHQ VXSUD QRWH DW ²
7KH\ SRLQW RXW FRUUHFWO\ WKDW *RRJOH VHDUFKHV UHWXUQ SDJH FRXQWV QRW ZRUG FRXQWV ZKLFK
PHDQV WKDW *RRJOH FRXQWV GR QRW WUDQVODWH LQWR ZRUG IUHTXHQFLHV ,G +RZHYHU WKH\ PLVV WKH
IDFW WKDW WKDW LV DQ DGYDQWDJH QRW D GLVDGYDQWDJH ,Q WKH SUHVHQW FDVH RI JHQGHU LW LV WKH
GLVSHUVLRQ YDOXH³LH WKH HTXLYDOHQW WR *RRJOH·V SDJH FRXQW³WKDW JLYHV WKH PRUH LQVLJKWIXO
DQVZHU UHJDUGLQJ WKH FRPPRQQHVV RI JHQGHU QRW WKH IUHTXHQF\ EHFDXVH ZH GR QRW JHW JHQGHU
HYHU\ VLQJOH WLPH LW RFFXUV LQ -RXUQDO IURP (OOLSVLD ,I , KDG D EORJ RQ ZKLFK , PLVVSHOO D
FHUWDLQ ZRUG WKRXVDQGV RI WLPHV DQG , ZDV WKH RQO\ SHUVRQ RQ WKH ::: GRLQJ WKLV ZRXOG LW
UHDOO\ EH SUHIHUDEOH WR JHW WKRXVDQGV RI KLWV IURP *RRJOH" 3UREDEO\ QRW JHWWLQJ D VLQJOH KLW IRU
DOO P\ PLVVSHOOLQJV ZRXOG EH D PRUH XVHIXO VHDUFK UHVXOW DV LW ZRXOG FRPPXQLFDWH WKH
¶LVRODWHGQHVV· RI P\ PLVVSHOOLQJV FOHDUO\ $QG QRWH WKDW WKLV LV QRW D ULGLFXORXV H[DPSOH ,Q
&2+$ V WKH ZRUG RGLHPR RFFXUV WLPHV LH DV RIWHQ DV FRPSOHWHO\ HYHU\GD\ ZRUGV
OLNH DIIHFWV EXVHV FRPIRUWLQJ FRQFOXVLRQV FRXUWKRXVH FRXUWURRP IDYRULWHV JXDUDQWHHG
PHPRUDEOH PRQLWRUV PRWRUF\FOH UHSODFLQJ VKXWWOH DQG VROYHG EXW DOO LWV RFFXUUHQFHV DUH LQ
RQH ILOH 6HH &RUSXV RI +LVWRULFDO $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK VXSUD QRWH %522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO %HIRUH ZH PRYH RQ WZR SRWHQWLDO FRXQWHUDUJXPHQWV
PXVW EH GLVFXVVHG 7KH ILUVW LV WKDW VRPHRQH PLJKW DUJXH WKDW
VXUHO\ IUHTXHQF\ DQG GLVSHUVLRQ DUH KLJKO\ FRUUHODWHG LI D ZRUG
LV YHU\ UDUH E\ YLUWXH RI RFFXUULQJ RQO\ RQFH RU WZLFH LQ D FRUSXV
LW FDQQRW UHDOO\ EH QLFHO\ HYHQO\ GLVWULEXWHG LQ WKH ILUVW SODFH DQG
LWV '3YDOXH ZLOO EH YHU\ KLJK $QG LI D ZRUG LV YHU\ IUHTXHQW E\
YLUWXH RI EHLQJ D IXQFWLRQ ZRUG VXFK DV WKH RU RI WKHQ VXUHO\ LW
ZLOO DOVR EH HYHQO\ GLVWULEXWHG DQG LWV '3YDOXH ZLOO EH ORZ
7KLV DUJXPHQW LV IODZHG \HV IUHTXHQF\ DQG GLVSHUVLRQ DUH
FRUUHODWHG HYHQ KLJKO\ DQG VLJQLILFDQWO\ FRUUHODWHG 7KLV LV
VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH ZKLFK UHSUHVHQWV WKH IUHTXHQF\ DQG WKH
GLVSHUVLRQ RI DOO ZRUGV LQ WKH V FRPSRQHQW RI &2+$ RQ WKH
[ DQG WKH \D[LV UHVSHFWLYHO\ DV JUH\ SRLQWV DQG WKHUH FOHDUO\
LV D FRUUHODWLRQ 5 RI D JHQHUDOL]HG DGGLWLYH PRGHO )LJXUH 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS RI IUHTXHQF\ DQG GLVSHUVLRQ RI DOO
ZRUGV LQ &2+$ V
6HH *5,(6 7(1 /(&785(6 21 &25386 /,1*8,67,&6 :,7+ 5 VXSUD QRWH DW 6HH &RUSXV RI +LVWRULFDO $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK VXSUD QRWH @
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
+RZHYHU WKLV FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ IUHTXHQF\ DQG
GLVSHUVLRQ LV DFWXDOO\ DQ H[DPSOH RI 6LPSVRQ·V SDUDGR[ ZKLFK
UHIHUV WR D VLWXDWLRQ ZKHUH DQ HIIHFW LQ D FRPSOHWH GDWD VHW
GLVDSSHDUV RU EHFRPHV UHYHUVHG ZKHQ RQH VWXGLHV WKH VDPH GDWD
EURNHQ XS LQWR SDUWV &UXFLDOO\ DQG DV LQGLFDWHG E\ WKH ZLGH
YHUWLFDO UDQJHV LQ VRPH IUHTXHQF\ UDQJHV VXFK DV ² DQG ²
EXW DOVR ² WKH FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ IUHTXHQF\ DQG GLVSHUVLRQ LV
VXEVWDQWLDOO\ ORZHU ZKLFK XQGHUPLQHV WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI IUHTXHQF\
DV DQ LQGLFDWRU RI FRPPRQQHVV $QG LW LV H[DFWO\ WKHVH IUHTXHQF\
UDQJHV ZKHUH PRVW FRQWHQW ZRUGV DUH ORFDWHG WKDW FRQWDLQ WKH
ZRUGV WKDW KDYH EHHQ UHOHYDQW LQ /&/ DSSOLFDWLRQV VXFK DV YHKLFOH
[ LQWHUSUHWHU [ GLVFKDUJH [ FDUU\ [ XVH
[ ZKHUH WKH GLVFUHSDQF\ EHWZHHQ WKH IUHTXHQFLHV RI ZRUGV
DQG WKHLU GLVSHUVLRQV LV PRVW SURQRXQFHG 3XW GLIIHUHQWO\ FRUSXV
IUHTXHQF\ LV OHDVW UHOLDEOH IRU H[DFWO\ WKRVH NLQGV RI ZRUGV WKDW /&/
LV FRQFHUQHG ZLWK &RQVLGHU IRU LQVWDQFH 7DEOH ZKLFK OLVWV
IUHTXHQFLHV DQG GLVSHUVLRQV IRU VL[ ZRUGV ZLWK IRU DOO LQWHQWV DQG
SXUSRVHV LGHQWLFDO IUHTXHQFLHV LQ WKH P ZRUGV RI &2+$ V
, WKLQN QR RQH ZRXOG GLVDJUHH WKDW LQ VSLWH RI WKH LGHQWLFDO
IUHTXHQFLHV WKH ODWWHU WKUHH ZRUGV DUH PRUH FRPPRQ RU
ZLGHVSUHDG RQ DQ\ DFFRXQW WKH\ DUH HYHU\GD\ ZRUGV WKDW FKLOGUHQ
JURZLQJ XS ZLWK (QJOLVK DV WKHLU QDWLYH WRQJXH ZRXOG OHDUQ HDUOLHU
WKH\ DUH ZRUGV WKDW OHDUQHUV RI (QJOLVK FDQ EH H[SHFWHG WR NQRZ
HDUO\ LQ WKHLU ¶OLQJXLVWLF FDUHHU· HWF DQG LW LV WKH GLVSHUVLRQ YDOXH
QRW WKH IUHTXHQF\ WKDW UHIOHFWV WKDW IDFW
7DEOH )UHTXHQFLHV DQG GLVSHUVLRQV RI VHOHFWHG ZRUGV LQ
&2+$ V
0DORQH
*ROGZDWHU
5HSXEOLFDQV
NQRZLQJ
VXUSULVHG
EXV\
)UHTXHQF\
'LVSHUVLRQ
6LPLODU UHVXOWV FDQ HDVLO\ EH IRXQG IRU RWKHU FRUSRUD *ULHV
GLVFXVVHV KRZ WKH P ZRUGV VSRNHQ FRPSRQHQW RI WKH PZRUG
%ULWLVK 1DWLRQDO &RUSXV %1& FRQWDLQV WKH UDWKHU VSHFLDOL]HG
ZRUG FRXQFLO ZLWK IRU DOO LQWHQWV DQG SXUSRVHV WKH VDPH IUHTXHQF\
DV WKH ´HYHU\GD\µ ZRUGV QRWKLQJ WU\ DQG ZKHWKHU DQG DJDLQ WKDW
LV SHUIHFWO\ FDSWXUHG E\ WKHLU '3YDOXHV DQG 6HH (+ 6LPSVRQ 7KH ,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI ,QWHUDFWLRQ LQ &RQWLQJHQF\ 7DEOHV
- 52<$/ 67$7 62&·< ² VHH DOVR $/$1 $*5(67, $1 ,1752'8&7,21
72 &$7(*25,&$/ '$7$ $1$/<6,6 ² G HG 6HH &RUSXV RI +LVWRULFDO $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK VXSUD QRWH %522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO UHVSHFWLYHO\ *ULHV DOVR VKRZV D PRVW H[WUHPH H[DPSOH WKH
ZRUGV VWDLQLQJ DQG HQRUPRXV KDYH WKH VDPH IUHTXHQF\ LQ WKH
%URZQ FRUSXV RI ZULWWHQ $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK P ZRUGV LQ FRUSXV ILOHV RI DSSUR[ ZRUGV EXW DOO LQVWDQFHV RI VWDLQLQJ
RFFXU LQ RI WKH ILOHV ZKHUHDV WKH LQVWDQFHV RI HQRUPRXV
DUH VSUHDG RXW RYHU SDUWV $Q\ FRUSXV DQDO\VLV WKDW UHOLHV RQO\
XSRQ IUHTXHQF\ DQG GRHV QRW FRQVLGHU GLVSHUVLRQ FDQ IDOO SUH\ WR
VXFK GLVWULEXWLRQDO IDFWV
7KH VHFRQG FRXQWHUDUJXPHQW WKDW PXVW EH GLVFXVVHG LV WKDW
VRPH VFKRODUV KDYH SURSRVHG FRQIODWLQJ IUHTXHQF\ DQG GLVSHUVLRQ
LQWR D VLQJOH QXPEHU D VRFDOOHG DGMXVWHG IUHTXHQF\ 7KLV FRXOG
EH GRQH E\ PXOWLSO\LQJ WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI D ZRUG E\ '3 DV D UHVXOW
RI ZKLFK WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI FOXPSLO\GLVWULEXWHG ZRUGV ZRXOG EH
GRZQJUDGHG +RZHYHU WKLV LV D EDG LGHD EHFDXVH RI WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ
ORVV RQH LQFXUV IURP WDNLQJ WZR GLPHQVLRQV RI LQIRUPDWLRQ³
IUHTXHQF\ DQG GLVSHUVLRQ³DQG UHGXFLQJ WKHP WR RQH DQ DGMXVWHG
IUHTXHQF\ $ VLPSOH H[DPSOH FDQ LOOXVWUDWH WKLV QDPHO\ WKH
TXHVWLRQ RI ZKLFK ZRUG SXOO RU FKDLUPDQ LV SUREDEO\ PRUH
FRPPRQ RU ZLGHVSUHDG 2EYLRXVO\ LW·V SXOO 1RWH KRZHYHU WKDW
QHLWKHU WKH UDZ IUHTXHQFLHV RI WKHVH ZRUGV LQ WKH VSRNHQ SDUW RI WKH
%1& DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\ QRU WKHLU DGMXVWHG IUHTXHQFLHV
DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\ UHIOHFW WKDW +RZHYHU WKHLU '3YDOXHV
GR DQG ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV FRXQWHU WR VRPH OH[LFRJUDSKLF RU
DSSOLHG OLQJXLVWLF ZRUN LW LV DOZD\V VPDUWHU WR NHHS WKH WZR
GLPHQVLRQV VHSDUDWH DV ZH KDYH GRQH DERYH LQ )LJXUH 5HWXUQLQJ WR JHQGHU DQG VH[ )LJXUH LQGLFDWHV WKHLU
SRVLWLRQV LQ WKH JUDSK ZLWK D EOXH J DQG D UHG V &OHDUO\ JHQGHU
LV PXFK OHVV IUHTXHQW WKDQ VH[ LQ WKH V DQG LW LV PXFK OHVV
HYHQO\ GLVWULEXWHG WKDQ VH[ ZKLFK OHQGV VRPH SUHOLPLQDU\
VXSSRUW WR WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW JHQGHU PLJKW QRW KDYH EHHQ D
´WKLQJµ LQ WKH V ZH KDYH VHHQ WKDW JHQGHU LV VR UDUH LQ WKH
V WKDW LW VFRUHV GLVSHUVLRQ YDOXHV WKDW DUH DV H[WUHPH DV
WKRVH RI W\SRV +RZHYHU ZH DOVR QHHG WR FRQVLGHU LVVXHV WZR DQG
WKUHH WKH WHPSRUDO GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH WZR ZRUGV DQG WKH
UREXVWQHVV RI WKH UHVXOWV WR ZKLFK ZH WXUQ QRZ
7KH VHFRQG LVVXH WR EH GLVFXVVHG ZLWK UHJDUG WR JHQGHU
DQG VH[ LQ WKH 7LWOH 9,, FDVH LV KRZ WKH XVH RI WKHVH WZR ZRUGV
PD\ KDYH FKDQJHG RYHU WLPH 7KLV LVVXH LV LQ IDFW HDV\ WR UHVROYH
6HH *5,(6 7(1 /(&785(6 21 &25386 /,1*8,67,&6 :,7+ 5 VXSUD QRWH DW
*5,(6 7(1 /(&785(6 21 &25386/,1*8,67,& $3352$&+(6 VXSUD QRWH DW 6HH VRXUFHV FLWHG VXSUD QRWH 6HH HJ 0$5. '$9,(6
'(( *$5'1(5 $ )5(48(1&< ',&7,21$5< 2)
&217(0325$5< $0(5,&$1 (1*/,6+ :25' 6.(7&+(6 &2//2&$7(6 $1' 7+(0$7,&
/,676 6HH *5,(6 7(1 /(&785(6 21 &25386 /,1*8,67,&6 :,7+ 5 VXSUD QRWH DW @
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
EHFDXVH ZH FDQ MXVW GR WKH VDPH NLQGV RI FRPSXWDWLRQV DV
GLVFXVVHG DERYH IRU WKH V IRU DOO ODWHU &2+$ GHFDGHV LH
WKH V V V DQG V DQG WKHQ SORW HDFK ZRUG·V
WUDMHFWRU\ RYHU WLPH DV LQ )LJXUH WKH [D[LV UHSUHVHQWV WKH
IUHTXHQFLHV ORJJHG DIWHU QRUPDOL]DWLRQ WR SHU PLOOLRQ EHFDXVH WKH
&2+$ GHFDGHV GLIIHU VOLJKWO\ LQ VL]H )LJXUH 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS RI IUHTXHQF\ DQG GLVSHUVLRQ IRU
JHQGHU LQ EOXH DQG VH[ LQ UHG LQ &2+$ V²V QRWH WKH
UHGXFHG [ DQG \D[LV OLPLWV UHODWLYH WR )LJXUH 7KH UHVXOWV VHHP WR LQGLFDWH WKDW JHQGHU EHFDPH
FRQVLGHUDEO\ PRUH IUHTXHQW RYHU WLPH WKH EOXH SRLQWV DUH GHYHORSLQJ
ULJKWZDUGV RQ WKH ZKROH EXW LW UHPDLQHG D UHODWLYHO\ FOXPSLO\
GLVWULEXWHG ZRUG WKDW QHYHU UHDFKHG D ZLGHU GLVWULEXWLRQ DFURVV
PDQ\ ILOHV 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG VH[ VHHPV WR KDYH KDUGO\ FKDQJHG DW
DOO LQ IUHTXHQF\ WKH UHG SRLQWV DUH GHYHORSLQJ XSZDUGV RQ WKH
ZKROH EXW LQ IDFW LW EHFDPH OHVV ZLGHO\ GLVWULEXWHG³RQH PLJKW
6HH &RUSXV RI +LVWRULFDO $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK VXSUD QRWH %522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO VSHFXODWH WKDW WKLV FRXOG EH GXH WR WKH LQFUHDVH LQ IUHTXHQF\ RI
JHQGHU VRPH XVHV RI ZKLFK PD\EH WRRN RYHU VRPH RI WKRVH RI VH[
+RZHYHU ULJRURXV WKHVH GDWD VHHP PRUH VWDWLVWLFDO
VRSKLVWLFDWLRQ LV UHTXLUHG :KDW )LJXUH GRHV QRW VKRZ LV ZKDW DOO
WKH RWKHU ZRUGV· GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ WKH ILYH GHFDGHV ORRN OLNH³RQH
FDQQRW WDNH WKH WUDMHFWRULHV RI JHQGHU DQG VH[ DW IDFH YDOXH ZLWKRXW
NQRZLQJ ´ZKDW WKH ZRUGV LQ WKH FRUSRUD DUH GRLQJ DW WKH VDPH
WLPHµ 7R H[SODLQ WKLV YLVXDOO\ FRQVLGHU WKDW WKH ILUVW EOXH DQG UHG
SRLQW LQ )LJXUH ZHUH FRPSXWHG XVLQJ DOO IUHTXHQFLHV DQG DOO
GLVSHUVLRQ LQ WKH V LH DOO JUH\ SRLQWV RI )LJXUH EXW WKRVH
SRLQW FORXGV ZLOO EH GLIIHUHQW LQ WKH RWKHU GHFDGHV ZKLFK PHDQV RQH
FDQ FRPSDUH WKH YDOXHV RI )LJXUH RQO\ KHXULVWLFDOO\ EXW QHHGV WR
FRQVLGHU WKHP DJDLQVW WKH EDFNJURXQG³QR SXQ LQWHQGHG³RI HDFK
GHFDGH·V JUH\ SRLQW FORXG
,W LV WKHUHIRUH XVHIXO WR QRW MXVW SORW WKH IUHTXHQFLHV DQG
GLVSHUVLRQ RI JHQGHU DQG VH[ DV LQ )LJXUH EXW WR SORW LQVWHDG
WKH IUHTXHQF\ DQG GLVSHUVLRQ UDQNV RI JHQGHU DQG VH[ RYHU WLPH
%\ WKDW , PHDQ WR DQVZHU WKH IROORZLQJ TXHVWLRQV IRU HDFK
GHFDGH KRZ PDQ\ GLIIHUHQW ZRUG W\SHV DUH RQHV WKDW DUH PRUH
IUHTXHQW WKDQ JHQGHU DQG KRZ PDQ\ GLIIHUHQW ZRUG W\SHV DUH
RQHV WKDW DUH PRUH IUHTXHQW WKDQ VH[ DQG DQDORJRXVO\ IRU
GLVSHUVLRQ 7KH DQVZHUV WR WKHVH TXHVWLRQV DUH VKRZQ LQ WKH WZR
SDQHOV RI )LJXUH 7KH [D[LV UHSUHVHQWV WLPH DQG WKH \D[LV
UHSUHVHQWV KRZ PDQ\ ZRUGV DUH PRUH IUHTXHQW WKDQ JHQGHUVH[
LQ HDFK GHFDGH LQ WKH OHIW SDQHO DQG KRZ PDQ\ ZRUGV DUH PRUH
HYHQO\ GLVSHUVHG WKDQ JHQGHUVH[ LQ HDFK GHFDGH LQ WKH ULJKW
SDQHO 7KH GDWD SRLQWV WKDW UHSUHVHQW JHQGHU DSSHDU LQ EOXH
DQG WKH GDWD SRLQWV WKDW UHSUHVHQW VH[ DSSHDU LQ UHG %HORZ WKH
ORFDWLRQ RI ILUVW EOXH SRLQW LQ WKH OHIW SDQHO LQGLFDWHV WKDW RI DOO WKH GLIIHUHQW ZRUG W\SHV LQ WKH V SDUW RI &2+$ ZHUH
DV RU PRUH IUHTXHQW WKDQ JHQGHU
6HH JHQHUDOO\ :LOOLDP 1 (VNULGJH -U HW DO 7KH 0HDQLQJ RI 6H[ '\QDPLF
:RUGV 1RYHO $SSOLFDWLRQV DQG 2ULJLQDO 3XEOLF 0HDQLQJ 0,&+ / 5(9 6HH &RUSXV RI +LVWRULFDO $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK VXSUD QRWH 7R D QRQOLQJXLVW WKLV
QXPEHU PXVW VHHP LQFUHGXORXV +RZ FDQ LW EH WKDW D ZRUG WKDW LV DV UDUH DV JHQGHU LQ WKH
V LV PRUH IUHTXHQW WKDQ ! RI DOO ZRUG W\SHV RI WKDW GHFDGH" 7KH DQVZHU WR WKDW
TXHVWLRQ LV RQH RI WKH IDFWV DERXW ODQJXDJH WKDW PDNHV LWV VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV VR FKDOOHQJLQJ
DQG VR FRXQWHULQWXLWLYH IRU QRQH[SHUWV :RUGV LQ ODQJXDJH KDYH ZKDW LV FDOOHG D =LSILDQ
GLVWULEXWLRQ YHU\ IHZ ZRUGV DUH H[WUHPHO\ IUHTXHQW DQG PDQ\ ZRUGV DUH H[WUHPHO\
LQIUHTXHQW 'RQ 0LOOHU $QDO\VLQJ )UHTXHQF\ /LVWV $ 35$&7,&$/ +$1'%22. 2) &25386
/,1*8,67,&6 VXSUD QRWH DW ² ,Q WKH V SDUW RI &2+$ IRU LQVWDQFH WKHUH DUH
QHDUO\ ZRUG W\SHV PRUH WKDQ RI WKHP RFFXU MXVW D VLQJOH WLPH DQG DQRWKHU QHDUO\
RFFXU RQO\ WZLFH $W WKH VDPH WLPH WKH PRVW IUHTXHQW ZRUG W\SHV LH
§ RI DOO ZRUG W\SHV DFFRXQW IRU RI WKH P ZRUGV RI WKDW GHFDGH
%HFDXVH RI WKLV =LSILDQ GLVWULEXWLRQ HYHQ D UDUH ZRUG OLNH JHQGHU VFRUHV VXFK D KLJK IUHTXHQF\
UDQN 6HH &RUSXV RI +LVWRULFDO $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK VXSUD QRWH @
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
)LJXUH 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS RI IUHTXHQF\ DQG GLVSHUVLRQ IRU
JHQGHU LQ EOXH DQG VH[ LQ UHG LQ &2+$ VV
7KLV SORW QRZ LOOXVWUDWHV WKDW UHODWLYH WR ¶HYHU\WKLQJ HOVH
WKDW KDSSHQHG RYHU WLPH· EHFDXVH ZH DUH XVLQJ GHFDGHVSHFLILF
UDQNV QRZ VH[ KDV KDUGO\ FKDQJHG EXW JHQGHU KDV EHFRPH ERWK
PXFK PRUH IUHTXHQW DQG PXFK PRUH ZLGHO\ GLVSHUVHG EHFDXVH WKH
EOXH OLQHV DUH VORSLQJ GRZQZDUGV LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WKH QXPEHU RI
ZRUGV ZLWK IUHTXHQF\ UDQNV KLJKHU WKDQ JHQGHU EHFRPHV VPDOOHU
DQG VPDOOHU RYHU WLPH UHODWLYH WR DOO RWKHU ZRUGV LQ WKH GHFDGH $W
WKH VDPH WLPH WKH UHDVRQLQJ OHDGLQJ WR WKLV SORW VKRXOG DOVR
H[HPSOLI\ KRZ HDV\ LW LV WR IDOO LQWR ¶VWDWLVWLFDO WUDSV· ZKHQ GRLQJ
TXDQWLWDWLYH FRUSXVOLQJXLVWLF DQDO\VLV VXFK DV ZKHQ DQ DQDO\VW
PLJKW RYHULQWHUSUHW IUHTXHQFLHV ZKLOH IDLOLQJ WR UHFRJQL]H
FOXPSLQHVV RU ZKHQ DQ DQDO\VW FRPSDUHV IUHTXHQFLHV DFURVV WLPH
SHULRGV ZLWKRXW VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ FRQWUROOLQJ IRU DOO RWKHU ZRUGV·
GLVWULEXWLRQV $V ZH VHH KHUH LW LV RQO\ ZKHQ ZH H[HUW WKH SURSHU
VWDWLVWLFDO FRQWUROV WKDW ZH VHH WKH WUXH QDWXUH RI WKH WHPSRUDO
WUHQG V PDQLIHVWHG LQ WKH GDWD
7KH ILQDO PDMRU FRQFHUQ WR EH DGGUHVVHG LQYROYHV WKH QRWLRQ
WKDW FRUSRUD DUH ILQLWH DQG LPSHUIHFW VDPSOHV DQG KRZ FRUSXV
OLQJXLVWV RU XVHUV QHHG WR HQVXUH WKDW WKH\ GR QRW RYHUJHQHUDOL]H
SUHPDWXUHO\ DQGRU LQFRUUHFWO\ IURP VXFK VDPSOHV WR D ZKROH
VSHHFK FRPPXQLW\
&
%522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO 4XDQWLI\LQJ 8QFHUWDLQW\ IRU )UHTXHQF\'LVSHUVLRQ DQG
7KHLU 7HPSRUDO 'HYHORSPHQW
7KH WKLUG LVVXH WR EH UHFRJQL]HG DQG DGGUHVVHG LV
FRQFHUQHG ZLWK WKH IDFW WKDW HYHU\ FRUSXV LV PHUHO\ D VDPSOH RI
D SRSXODWLRQ DQG DQ LPSHUIHFW YRODWLOH DQG VHQVLWLYH RQH DW
WKDW )LUVW D FRUSXV LV D VDPSOH EHFDXVH REYLRXVO\ RQO\ D WLQ\
SRUWLRQ RI DOO WKH $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK SURGXFHG LQ VSHDNLQJ DQG
ZULWLQJ LQ WKH V PDGH LW LQWR &2+$ V
6HFRQG D FRUSXV LV DQ LPSHUIHFW VDPSOH EHFDXVH ZH KDYH
QR ZD\ RI NQRZLQJ ZKHWKHU WKH VDPSOH LV UHSUHVHQWDWLYH DQG
EDODQFHG ZLWK UHJDUG WR DOO $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK SURGXFHG LQ VSHDNLQJ
DQG ZULWLQJ LQ WKH V 7KH PHDQLQJ RI UHSUHVHQWDWLYH ZLWKLQ D
FRUSRUD PHDQV WKDW DOO UHJLVWHUV WKDW H[LVWHG LQ WKH V LQ WKH
8QLWHG 6WDWHV DUH LQFOXGHG LQ WKH FRUSXV ZKHUHDV EDODQFHG PHDQV
WKDW DOO UHJLVWHUV WKDW H[LVWHG LQ WKH V LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DUH
LQFOXGHG LQ WKH FRUSXV LQ WKH H[DFW SURSRUWLRQ WKDW WKH\ PDGH XS RI
DOO WKH $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK SURGXFHG LQ WKH V 7KH IDLOXUH WR
NQRZ ZLWK FHUWDLQW\ ZKHWKHU D SDUWLFXODU FRUSXV LV UHSUHVHQWDWLYH
DQG EDODQFHG LV QRW GXH WR DQ\ PLVWDNH RQ WKH SDUW RI WKH FRUSXV
FRPSLOHUV EXW UDWKHU EHFDXVH LW LV LPSRVVLEOH WR NQRZ DOO UHJLVWHUV
DQG JHQUHV WKDW H[LVWHG DQG KRZ ´ODUJHµ WKH\ ZHUH
)LQDOO\ D FRUSXV LV YRODWLOH EHFDXVH LW FRQVLVWV RI D
VSHFLILF VHW RI ILOHV WKDW UHVXOWHG IURP D KRSHIXOO\ PRVWO\ UDQGRP
VDPSOLQJ RI WH[WV LQWR WKH FRUSXV DV ZHOO DV PDQ\ RWKHU
VDPSOLQJ GHFLVLRQV 7KHVH GHFLVLRQV LQFOXGH KRZ PXFK RI VD\ D
ERRN WR LQFOXGH SDJHV" SDJHV" RI WKH ERRN·V OHQJWK"
" DQG ZKHUH WR VWDUW WKH VDPSOH SDJH " SDJH " SDJH " 7KHVH IDFWV DQG WKH XQFHUWDLQW\ WKH\ UHVXOW LQ QHHG WR EH
DGGUHVVHG HYHQ WKRXJK YLUWXDOO\ QR /&/ ZRUN DW DOO KDV GRQH VR LQ
SDUWLFXODU QRW HYHQ WKH PRVW LQIOXHQWLDO DQG SDWKEUHDNLQJ ZRUN
WKDW KDV SXW /&/ RQ WKH PDS LQ DOO IDLUQHVV WR /&/ SUDFWLWLRQHUV
WKLV IDFW DOVR QHHGV WR EH DGGUHVVHG LQ PXFK &/ ZRUN EXW W\SLFDOO\
LV QRW 2QH SRVVLELOLW\ WR DGGUHVV WKLV JDS LV D PHWKRG FDOOHG
ERRWVWUDSSLQJ D VWDWLVWLFDO WHFKQLTXH XVHG WR TXDQWLI\ WKH
XQFHUWDLQW\ WKDW FRPHV ZLWK WKH UHVXOW FRPSXWHG IURP D VSHFLILF
VDPSOH 7KLV LV GRQH E\ UHSHDWHG UHVDPSOLQJ ZLWK UHSODFHPHQW
6HH &RUSXV RI +LVWRULFDO $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK VXSUD QRWH 6HH *5,(6 VXSUD QRWH DW 7KH WHUP UHJLVWHU FDQ EH GHILQHG DV D JHQHUDO ´FRYHU WHUP IRU DQ\ YDULHW\
DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK SDUWLFXODU VLWXDWLRQDO FRQWH[WV RU SXUSRVHVµ '28*/$6 %,%(5
',0(16,216 2) 5(*,67(5 9$5,$7,21 $ &5266/,1*8,67,& &203$5,621 7KLV LV WUXH GHVSLWH DGPRQLWLRQV WR WKDW HIIHFW DQG GHPRQVWUDWLRQV RI ZK\
WKDW LV LPSRUWDQW 6HH *ULHV VXSUD QRWH DW ²
6HH -HVVH (JEHUW
/XNH 3ORQVN\ %RRWVWUDSSLQJ 7HFKQLTXHV LQ $
35$&7,&$/ +$1'%22. 2) &25386 /,1*8,67,&6 VXSUD QRWH DW @
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
IURP WKH VDPSOH RI ILOHV RQH DFWXDOO\ KDV ZKLFK PHDQV VRPH ILOHV
ZLOO PDNH LW LQWR WKH QHZ VDPSOH PXOWLSOH WLPHV DQG RWKHUV ZLOO QRW
EH LQ WKH FXUUHQW UDQGRP GUDZ 7KLV ZD\ HDFK ERRWVWUDSSHG
VDPSOH LV RQH SRVVLEOH DQVZHU WR WKH TXHVWLRQ ´ZKDW LI P\ VDPSOH
KDG KDG WKH VDPH VL]H EXW ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ VOLJKWO\ GLIIHUHQW LQ LWV
FRPSRVLWLRQ"µ 2QH WKHQ FRPSXWHV DOO VWDWLVWLFV RI LQWHUHVW IRU HDFK
RI WKH UHVDPSOHG VDPSOHV ,Q RXU FDVH IRU HDFK GHFDGH RI &2+$
XQGHU LQYHVWLJDWLRQ VHSDUDWHO\ , GLG WKH IROORZLQJ
•
•
, GUHZ D UDQGRP VDPSOH ZLWK UHSODFHPHQW IURP DOO WKH
ILOHV RI WKDW GHFDGH )RU LQVWDQFH WKH V GDWD FRQVLVW
RI ILOHV VR , GUHZ D UDQGRP VDPSOH RI WKH VDPH VL]H
ILOHV ZLWK UHSODFHPHQW
7KHQ , FRPSXWHG WKH IUHTXHQFLHV DQG GLVSHUVLRQV RI
JHQGHU DQG VH[ LQ WKH VDPSOH DQG VWRUHG WKH UHVXOW
7KLV ZDV UHSHDWHG WLPHV VR WKDW IRU HDFK GHFDGH RI
&2+$ , ZRXOG KDYH ´DOVR SRVVLEOHµ IUHTXHQFLHV DQG
GLVSHUVLRQV RI ERWK JHQGHU DQG VH[ ZKLFK ZHUH WKHQ SORWWHG LQWR D
YHUVLRQ RI )LJXUH XVLQJ GDWD HOOLSVHV WR UHSUHVHQW WKH UDQJH
RI YDOXHV WKDW WKH ERRWVWUDSSHG IUHTXHQFLHV DQG GLVSHUVLRQV
H[KLELW 7KH UHVXOW LV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH 6HH &RUSXV RI +LVWRULFDO $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK VXSUD QRWH %522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO )LJXUH 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS RI IUHTXHQF\ DQG GLVSHUVLRQ IRU
JHQGHU LQ EOXH DQG VH[ LQ UHG LQ &2+$ VV ZLWK SHUFHQW GDWD HOOLSVHV
)LJXUH FOHDUO\ H[HPSOLILHV ZK\ TXDQWLI\LQJ WKH XQFHUWDLQW\
WKDW FRPHV ZLWK RQH·V FRUSXV UHVXOWV LV VR LPSRUWDQW )RU LQVWDQFH
LW LV LPSRVVLEOH QRW WR QRWLFH WKH KXJH GHJUHH RI XQFHUWDLQW\ WKDW
FRPHV ZLWK WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI JHQGHU LQ WKH V WKH WRS OHIW GDWD
HOOLSVH LV H[WUHPHO\ ZLGH LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WKH IUHTXHQF\ UHVXOW IRU
JHQGHU LV HVVHQWLDOO\ FRPSOHWHO\ XQUHOLDEOH EHFDXVH WKH DFWXDOO\
REVHUYHG YDOXH UHSUHVHQWHG E\ WKH EOXH GRW FRXOG EH VXEVWDQWLDOO\
ORZHU ZLWKLQ WKH OHIW SDUW RI WKDW HOOLSVH RU VXEVWDQWLDOO\ KLJKHU
ZLWKLQ WKH ULJKW SDUW RI WKDW VDPH HOOLSVH ,Q IDFW WKH HOOLSVH IRU WKH
V VSDQV VR IDU WR WKH ULJKW WKDW LW RYHUODSV ZLWK WKH V DQG
WKH V YDOXHV ZKLFK LV WKH YLVXDO HTXLYDOHQW RI VD\LQJ WKDW WKH
IUHTXHQF\ UHVXOW IRU WKH V PLJKW XQGHU MXVW VOLJKWO\ GLIIHUHQW
FLUFXPVWDQFHV EH HTXLYDOHQW WR WKDW RI WKH V DQG WKH V 7KH
6HH (JEHUW
3ORQVN\ VXSUD QRWH DW ²
@
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
RYHUDOO WUHQG RI JHQGHU·V LQFUHDVH LQ IUHTXHQF\ DIWHU WKH V
KRZHYHU VHHPV UREXVW JLYHQ KRZ VXFFHVVLYH LQ WHUPV RI WLPH
HOOLSVHV GR QRW RYHUODS IURP OHIW WR ULJKW
,Q WHUPV RI GLVSHUVLRQ WKLV GHYHORSPHQW LV OHVV SURQRXQFHG
EHFDXVH WKH VXFFHVVLYH HOOLSVHV GR RYHUODS DORQJ WKH YHUWLFDO \D[LV
GLPHQVLRQ RI GLVSHUVLRQ ,Q WHUPV RI GLVSHUVLRQ JHQGHU EHFDPH
PXFK PRUH HYHQO\ GLVWULEXWHG IURP WKH V WR WKH V EXW
DIWHU WKDW WKH HOOLSVHV RYHUODS YHUWLFDOO\ DQG WKH FKDQJHV DUH QRW
V\VWHPDWLF )RU VH[ RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHUH LV YHU\ OLWWOH UREXVW
IUHTXHQF\ GHYHORSPHQW EHFDXVH QHDUO\ DOO UHG HOOLSVHV RYHUODS
DORQJ WKH [D[LV KRZHYHU WKH JUDSK VXJJHVWV WKDW VH[ EHFDPH D
OLWWOH PRUH FOXPSLO\ GLVWULEXWHG 7KXV ZH DJDLQ VHH KRZ SURSHU
VWDWLVWLFDO FRQWURODQDO\VLV LV UHTXLUHG LI RQH ZDQWV WR DYRLG
SURPRWLQJ D FRUSXV DQDO\VLV WKDW ZRXOG QRW EH VKRW GRZQ HDVLO\ E\
HJ H[SHUW ZLWQHVVHV RI WKH RSSRVLQJ SDUW\ LQ FRXUW
7ZR PRUH JHQHUDO FRPPHQWV EHIRUH ZH PRYH RQ WR WKH QH[W
VHW RI H[DPSOHV )LUVW QRWH WKDW LGHDOO\ ZH ZRXOG H[WHQG WKH
ERRWVWUDSSLQJ DSSURDFK QRW MXVW WR )LJXUH DV ZH GLG LQ )LJXUH EXW DOVR WR )LJXUH )LJXUH VKRZV WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ UHVXOWV IRU
WKH IUHTXHQF\ UDQNV ZKLFK VXSSRUW WKH UHVXOWV RI )LJXUH +RZHYHU , GLG QRW GR WKH VDPH IRU WKH GLVSHUVLRQ YDOXHV EHFDXVH RI
WKH FRPSXWDWLRQDO FRVW ILYH GHFDGHV WLPHV LWHUDWLRQV HTXDOV
LQVWDQFHV RI D SURFHVV WKDW ZLOO ODVW EHWZHHQ WKUHH DQG VL[
KRXUV LV LQ IDFW XQSUREOHPDWLF RQ D KLJKSHUIRUPDQFH FRPSXWLQJ
FOXVWHU EXW ZDV GHHPHG H[FHVVLYH IRU WKLV PRUH SURJUDPPDWLF
SDSHU +RZHYHU LQ DQ DFWXDO OHJDO DSSOLFDWLRQ IRU D FDVH DQ H[SHUW
ZLWQHVV ZKR FDQ SDVV WKH FRVWV RI $PD]RQ :HE 6HUYLFHV FORXG
FRPSXWLQJ RQ WR WKHLU FOLHQW ZRXOG ZDQW WR PDNH VXUH WKDW WKH
GLVSHUVLRQ GDWD DUH DOVR FRPSXWHG DQG HYDOXDWHG
6HH :KDW LV &ORXG &RPSXWLQJ" $0$=21 :(% 6(596 KWWSVDZVDPD]RQFRP"
QF KBOJ >KWWSVSHUPDFF*.-710@
%522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO )LJXUH 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS RI IUHTXHQF\ DQG GLVSHUVLRQ IRU
JHQGHU LQ EOXH DQG VH[ LQ UHG LQ &2+$ VV ZLWK SHUFHQW FRQILGHQFH LQWHUYDOV
6HFRQG LW LV ZRUWK UHSHDWLQJ )LJXUH GRHV LOOXVWUDWH
QLFHO\ KRZHYHU RQH PDLQ SRLQW PDGH DERYH IUHTXHQF\ LV QRW D
SDUWLFXODUO\ UHOLDEOH PHDVXUH EHFDXVH RI KRZ XQUHOLDEO\ ZLGH WKH
WRS OHIW EOXH HOOLSVLV LV ZLGH RQ WKH [D[LV GLPHQVLRQ RI IUHTXHQF\
+RZHYHU WKDW VDPH HOOLSVLV LV YHU\ QDUURZ RQ WKH \D[LV
GLPHQVLRQ RI GLVSHUVLRQ ZKLFK PHDQV WKDW WKH GLVSHUVLRQ YDOXH
RI JHQGHU LQ WKH V GRHV QRW YDU\ VLPLODUO\ HUUDWLFDOO\ LQ WKH
ERRWVWUDSSHG VDPSOH DQG LV WKXV PXFK PRUH UHOLDEOH ,Q RWKHU
ZRUGV WKH VR IDU KDUGO\HYHUXVHG PHDVXUH RI GLVSHUVLRQ LV PXFK
PRUH UREXVW WKDQ WKH RPQLSUHVHQW PHDVXUH RI IUHTXHQF\
,Q VXP ZH KDYH VHHQ KRZ IDVW WKLQJV QHHG WR EHFRPH PRUH
FRPSOH[ ,Q D FDVH OLNH WKLV LW PD\ VHHP DV LI VRPH VLPSOH IUHTXHQF\
RU IUHTXHQFLHV DQDO\VLV LV VXIILFLHQW EXW D SURSHU /&/ DQDO\VLV
TXLFNO\ UHTXLUHV PXFK PRUH GLVSHUVLRQ YDOXHV IUHTXHQF\ DQG
GLVSHUVLRQ UDQNV SHU GHFDGH WKH WHPSRUDO GHYHORSPHQW ZKHQ D
ORQJHU VWUHWFK RI WLPH LV LQFOXGHG HJ ZKHQ D VWDWXWH ZDV DPHQGHG
PXOWLSOH WLPHV RYHU D SHULRG RI WLPH DQG LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH
@
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
GDWD·V UREXVWQHVV WR VHH ZKLFK RI RXU UHVXOWV DUH YRODWLOH DQG KRZ
WKDW LPSDFWV RXU LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ 7R DOUHDG\ DQWLFLSDWH D FRQFOXVLRQ
IURP EHORZ DQG WKH UHVXOWLQJ SOHD ZLWK D TXHVWLRQ WKDW VRXQGV
SROHPLF EXW FRPHV ZLWK HDUQHVW FRQFHUQ QRQH RI WKH DERYH ORRNV OLNH
D MXGJH FDQ GR WKDW LQ WKHLU FKDPEHUV
,,
9(&72563$&( 6(0$17,&6
$
,QWURGXFWLRQ
$V ZH KDYH VHHQ PDQ\ /&/ DSSOLFDWLRQV LQYROYH OH[LFDO
PHDQLQJ 2QH RI WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW ZRUNLQJ DVVXPSWLRQV RI
QHDUO\ DOO RI &/ LV WKH VRFDOOHG GLVWULEXWLRQDO K\SRWKHVLV ZKLFK LV
HQFDSVXODWHG LQ WKHVH WZR ZHOONQRZQ TXRWHV ´>\@RX VKDOO NQRZ D
ZRUG E\ WKH FRPSDQ\ LW NHHSVµ DQG LI ZH FRQVLGHU ZRUGV RU
PRUSKHPHV $ DQG % WR EH PRUH GLIIHUHQW LQ PHDQLQJ WKDQ $ DQG &
WKHQ ZH ZLOO RIWHQ ILQG WKDW WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV RI $ DQG % DUH PRUH
GLIIHUHQW WKDQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQV RI $ DQG & ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV
GLIIHUHQFH RI PHDQLQJ FRUUHODWHV ZLWK GLIIHUHQFH RI GLVWULEXWLRQ
7KLV K\SRWKHVLV KDV EHHQ LPSOHPHQWHG FRQFUHWHO\ DW
YDULRXV OHYHOV RI UHVROXWLRQ
•
•
•
WKH VLPSOH DQDO\VLV RI FROORFDWLRQV ZRUGV LQ WKH FRQWH[W
RI D ZRUG RQH LV LQWHUHVWHG LQ³EDVHG RQ IUHTXHQFLHV WKH
OHYHO WKDW PRVW /&/ ZRUN LV DW WKH PRUH VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV RI FROORFDWLRQV EDVHG RQ
IUHTXHQFLHV ZHOO DV DVVRFLDWLRQ PHDVXUHV DQG GLVSHUVLRQ YHFWRUVSDFH VHPDQWLFV EDVHG RQ ZHLJKWHG FRRFFXUUHQFH
IUHTXHQFLHV LQFOXGLQJ VRPH PXFK PRUH SRZHUIXO EXW DOVR
GHPDQGLQJ UHFHQW GHYHORSPHQWV VXFK DV ZRUGYHF RU
*OR9H ZKLFK DUH WZR RI WKH PRVW SRZHUIXO GHHSOHDUQLQJ
-RKQ 5 )LUWK $ 6\QRSVLV RI /LQJXLVWLF 7KHRU\ LQ 678',(6 ,1
/,1*8,67,& $1$/<6,6 =HOOLJ 6 +DUULV 'LVWULEXWLRQDO 6WUXFWXUH :25' 6HH 6WHIDQ (YHUW &RUSRUD DQG &ROORFDWLRQV LQ &25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1
,17(51$7,21$/ +$1'%22. ² $QNH /GHOLQJ
0HUMD .\W| HGV 6WHIDQ 7K *ULHV DQG 3KLOLS 'XUUDQW $QDO\]LQJ &RRFFXUUHQFH 'DWD LQ $ 35$&7,&$/
+$1'%22. 2) &25386 /,1*8,67,&6 VXSUD QRWH 6HH JHQHUDOO\ 720$6 0,.2/29 (7 $/ ,17·/ &21)(5(1&( 21 /($51,1*
5(35(6(17$7,216 ()),&,(17 (67,0$7,21 2) :25' 5(35(6(17$7,216 ,1 9(&725 63$&(
720$6 0,.2/29 (7 $/ $'9$1&(6 ,1 18(5$/ ,1)2 352&(66,1* 6<6 ',675,%87('
5(35(6(17$7,216 2) :25'6 $1' 3+5$6(6 $1' 7+(,5 &20326,7,21$/,7< 7RPDV
0LNRORY HW DO /LQJXLVWLF 5HJXODULWLHV LQ &RQWLQXRXV 6SDFH :RUG 5HSUHVHQWDWLRQV LQ
352&((',1*6 2) $118$/ &21)(5(1&( 2) 7+( 1 $0 &+$37(5 2) 7+( $66·1 )25
&20387$7,21$/ /,1*8,67,&6 ² %522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ DOJRULWKPV XVHG LQ OLQJXLVWLF UHVHDUFK
DQG QDWXUDO ODQJXDJH SURFHVVLQJ DSSOLFDWLRQV
$W D ORZHU OHYHO RI WHFKQLFDOLW\ IRU H[DPSOH /HH 0RXULWVHQ
GLVFXVV FROORFDWLRQV RI YHKLFOH WR DSSURDFK WKH TXHVWLRQ RI ZKHWKHU DQ
DLUSODQH LV D YHKLFOH +RZHYHU WKH VHPDQWLF ILHOG RI YHKLFOHV KDV
HYROYHG UDSLGO\ LQ HYHQ MXVW WKH ODVW IHZ \HDUV (VSHFLDOO\ WKH ODWWHU
NLQGV RI YHFWRUVSDFH DSSURDFKHV DUH WR VLPSOH FROORFDWLRQ DQDO\VHV
ZKDW D 7HVOD 0RGHO ; LV WR D ZKHHOEDUURZ &XUUHQW YHFWRUVSDFH
VHPDQWLFV FRPHV ZLWK FRQVLGHUDEOH PDWKHPDWLFDO FRPSOH[LW\
EHFDXVH WKH\ LQYROYH PXOWLSOH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQV RI WKH GDWD LQYROYLQJ
GLIIHUHQW UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHOLQJ RU PDFKLQHOHDUQLQJ WHFKQLTXHV FRPSXWDWLRQDO HIIRUWV EHFDXVH WKH\ FDQ UHTXLUH KRXUV RU GD\V WR
FRPSXWH HYHQ ZKHQ XWLOL]LQJ PXOWLSOH FRUHVWKUHDGV RU KLJK
SHUIRUPDQFH FRPSXWLQJ FOXVWHUV DQG KXJH UHTXLUHPHQWV LQ
WHUPV RI LQSXW RQH SDUWLFXODU PRGHO GLVFXVVHG EHORZ ZDV WUDLQHG RQ
DSSUR[LPDWHO\ ZRUGV 7KH PDWKHPDWLFDO
FRPSOH[LW\ LQ SDUWLFXODU LV GDXQWLQJ IRU DQ\RQH ZLWKRXW D VROLG
VWDWLVWLFDOPDFKLQHOHDUQLQJ DQG JHQHUDO FRPSXWDWLRQDO EDFNJURXQG
DQG LV QRW QHFHVVDU\ WR HODERUDWH XSRQ KHUH VXIILFH LW WR VD\ WKDW
•
•
´>W@KH LGHD RI YHFWRU VHPDQWLFV LV WKXV WR UHSUHVHQW D ZRUG
DV D SRLQW LQ VRPH PXOWLGLPHQVLRQDO VHPDQWLF VSDFHµ
WKH FRVLQH EHWZHHQ WZR YHFWRUV LV QRZ ´WKH VWDQGDUG ZD\
WR XVH HPEHGGLQJV YHFWRUV µ
7KDW LV LI ZH ZDQW WR FRPSXWH WZR ZRUGV· VHPDQWLF
UHODWHGQHVV ZH FRPSXWH IRU HDFK RI WZR ZRUGV D YHFWRU RI
KXQGUHGV RI QXPEHUV WKDW VXPPDUL]HV LQ D PXOWLGLPHQVLRQDO
IDVKLRQ WKH ZRUG·V DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK RWKHU ZRUGV LQ LWV FRQWH[WV RI
RFFXUUHQFH WKHQ ZH FDQ FRPSXWH WKH FRVLQH IRU WKH DQJOH EHWZHHQ
WKRVH WZR YHFWRUV DQG WKHQ ZH LQWHUSUHW WKH FRVLQH WKH KLJKHU WKH
YDOXH ZLWK D WKHRUHWLFDO PD[LPXP RI WKH PRUH VLPLODUO\
GLVWULEXWHG WKH\ DUH³DQG TXD WKH GLVWULEXWLRQDO K\SRWKHVLV PRUH
IXQFWLRQDOO\ RU VHPDQWLFDOO\ UHODWHG³DUH WKH WZR ZRUGV
6HH JHQHUDOO\ -())5(< 3(11,1*721 (7 $/ &21)(5(1&( 21 (03,5,&$/ 0(7+2'6
,1 1$7 /$1*8$*( 352&(66,1* */29( */2%$/ 9(&7256 )25 :25' 5(35(6(17$7,21 6HH /HH 0RXULWVHQ VXSUD QRWH DW ²
6HH JHQHUDOO\ 3(11,1*721 (7 $/ VXSUD QRWH 6HH '$1,(/ -85$)6.<
-$0(6 + 0$57,1 63((&+ $1' /$1*8$*(
352&(66,1* $1 ,1752'8&7,21 72 1$785$/ /$1*8$*( 352&(66,1* &20387$7,21$/
/,1*8,67,&6 $1' 63((&+ 5(&2*1,7,21 ² G HG 6HH '$1,(/ -85$)6.<
-$0(6 + 0$57,1 63((&+ $1' /$1*8$*(
352&(66,1* $1 ,1752'8&7,21 72 1$785$/ /$1*8$*( 352&(66,1* &20387$7,21$/
/,1*8,67,&6 $1' 63((&+ 5(&2*1,7,21 G HG IRUWKFRPLQJ 6HH LG
6HH VRXUFHV FLWHG VXSUD QRWHV ²
@
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
7KHVH DSSURDFKHV KDYH PDQ\ LQWHUHVWLQJ DSSOLFDWLRQV
6LQFH WKH\ DUH UHDOO\ JRRG DW ILQGLQJ ZRUGV WKDW DUH VHPDQWLFDOO\
UHODWHG LQ RQH RU PRUH ZD\V XVLQJ WKHP WR JR EH\RQG ´PHUHµ
FROORFDWLRQ VWXGLHV PLJKW VHHP RI LQWHUHVW LQ /&/ FRQWH[WV IRU VRPH
RI WKH SHUHQQLDO TXHVWLRQV VXFK DV ZKHWKHU DQ DLUSODQH LV D
YHKLFOH RU WKH IDPRXV ´1R YHKLFOHV LQ WKH SDUNµ K\SRWKHWLFDO WKLV
K\SRWKHWLFDO KDV EHHQ XVHG LQ QXPHURXV VRXUFHV EXW ZDV ILUVW XVHG
E\ +DUW WR LOOXVWUDWH WKH GLIILFXOWLHV RI VWDWXWRU\ LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ 6LQFH WKHVH NLQGV RI TXHVWLRQV DUH YHU\ KDUG WR WDFNOH ZLWK
VLPSOH FROORFDWLRQ VWXGLHV VRPH RI WKH PRUH FRPSOH[ YHFWRUVSDFH
DQDO\VHV PLJKW VHHP OLNH D QLFH DOWHUQDWLYH JLYHQ WKHLU DSSDUHQW
VRSKLVWLFDWLRQ +RZHYHU WKLV KLJKHU GHJUHH RI VRSKLVWLFDWLRQ MXVW
UDLVHV WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI HYHU\WKLQJ WKDW QHHGV WR EH FRQVLGHUHG )RU
H[DPSOH -HQQHMRKQ HW DO LV DQ DWWHPSW WR XVH WKHVH NLQGV RI
DSSURDFKHV WR UHSOLFDWH SUHYLRXVO\ UHSRUWHG FRUUHODWLRQV LQ FRUSRUD
E\ VKRZLQJ WKDW FHUWDLQ DGMHFWLYHV DUH PRUH DWWUDFWHG WR PDQPDOH
WKDQ WR ZRPDQIHPDOH LQ ZD\V WKDW DUH FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK JHQGHU
VWHUHRW\SHV 6LPLODUO\ *DUJ HW DO VKRZ WKDW WKHVH DSSURDFKHV
UHWXUQ UHVXOWV WKDW XQOHVV FRUUHFWHG DVVRFLDWH SURIHVVLRQV VXFK DV
FDUSHQWHU PHFKDQLF DQG HQJLQHHU ZLWK PHQ DQG KRXVHNHHSHU
GDQFHU DQG QXUVH ZLWK ZRPHQ :KHQ -HQQHMRKQ HW DO SUHVHQWHG
DQ HDUO\ YHUVLRQ RI WKHLU SDSHU DW WKH /DZ DQG &RUSXV
/LQJXLVWLFV FRQIHUHQFH DW %<8 VRPHRQH DVNHG DERXW VRPH RI WKH
UHDOO\ VPDOO QXPHULF GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH FRVLQHV RI FHUWDLQ
ZRUGV DQG PDQ RQ WKH RQH KDQG DQG WKH FRVLQHV RI FHUWDLQ ZRUGV DQG
ZRPDQ RQ WKH RWKHU 6SHFLILFDOO\ WKH TXHVWLRQ ZDV ZKHQ WKHVH
GLIIHUHQFHV ZRXOG EH ODUJH HQRXJK WR EH UHOHYDQWPHDQLQJIXO RU
VLJQLILFDQW 7KLV LV D OHJLWLPDWH TXHVWLRQ EXW RQH WR ZKLFK WKH
SUHVHQWHUV FRXOG QRW RIIHU D FRQFOXVLYH DQVZHU +RZHYHU ZLWK D
VOLJKWO\ PRUH VWDWLVWLFDOO\PLQGHG SHUVSHFWLYH WKHUH LV DFWXDOO\ D
UHODWLYHO\ VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG ZD\ WR DQVZHU WKDW TXHVWLRQ ZKLFK , ZLOO
GLVFXVV LQ ZKDW IROORZV XVLQJ WKH ZRUG YHKLFOH DV DQ H[DPSOH
6HH -85$)6.< 0$57,1 VXSUD QRWH 6HH /HH 0RXULWVHQ VXSUD QRWH DW ² /DZUHQFH 0 6RODQ 7DPP\
*DOHV &RUSXV /LQJXLVWLFV DV D 7RRO LQ /HJDO ,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ %<8 / 5(9 ²
6WHIDQ 7K *ULHV %ULDQ * 6ORFXP 2UGLQDU\ 0HDQLQJ DQG &RUSXV /LQJXLVWLFV %<8 / 5(9 6HH +/$ +DUW 3RVLWLYLVP DQG WKH 6HSDUDWLRQ RI /DZ DQG 0RUDOV +$59
/ 5(9 6HH JHQHUDOO\ 0DWWKHZ -HQQHMRKQ HW DO +LGGHQ %LDV LQ (PSLULFDO
7H[WXDOLVP *(2 /- 6HH 1LNKLO *DUJ HW DO :RUG (PEHGGLQJV 4XDQWLI\ <HDUV RI *HQGHU DQG
(WKQLF 6WHUHRW\SHV 352& 1$7·/ $&$' 6&, 86 $0 ( ( %
%522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO :KHHOFKDLUV DQG $LUSODQHV DV 9HKLFOHV
/HW PH ILUVW LOOXVWUDWH KRZ FDUHIXO RQH QHHGV WR EH ZKHQ LW
FRPHV WR LQWHUSUHWLQJ WKH UHVXOWV RI VXFK YHFWRUVSDFH PRGHOV 7R
WKDW HQG , ZLOO H[HPSOLI\ KRZ ZHOO WKLV DSSURDFK VHHPV WR ZRUN LQ
JHQHUDO E\ LGHQWLI\LQJ ZRUGV WKDW KDYH KLJKO\ VLPLODU GLVWULEXWLRQV
DQG WKXV DUH YHU\ OLNHO\ WR EH VWURQJO\ VHPDQWLFDOO\ UHODWHG WR
YHKLFOH , ORDGHG RQH RI WKH ODUJHVW IUHHO\ DYDLODEOH SUHWUDLQHG YHFWRU
PRGHOV LQWR WKH RSHQ VRXUFH HQYLURQPHQW DQG SURJUDPPLQJ
ODQJXDJH 5 DQG UHWULHYHG WKH WZHQW\ ZRUGV WKDW DUH PRVW VLPLODU WR
WKH OHPPD YHKLFOH LH WKH FRPELQDWLRQ RI ERWK WKH VLQJXODU DQG WKH
SOXUDO IRUPV RI YHKLFOH 7KH UHVXOWV DUH YHU\ HQFRXUDJLQJ QRW RQO\
GR DOO WKH ZRUGV LQGHHG VHHP VWURQJO\ UHODWHG WR YHKLFOH WKH\ DOVR
VXSSRUW WKH LQWXLWLRQ WKDW D FDU LV SUREDEO\ WKH SURWRW\SLFDO YHKLFOH
DV LQGLFDWHG E\ 7DEOH 7DEOH &RVLQHV RI WKH PRVW ´YHKLFOH\µ ZRUGV LQ WKH
% ZRUGV ZHE FUDZO PRGHO
5DQN
:RUG
&RVLQH
5DQN
:RUG
&RVLQH
5DQN
:RUG
&RVLQH
YHKLFOHV
7UXFNV
WRZLQJ
YHKLFOH
689
WRZ
FDUV
9HKLFOH
PRWRU
FDU
'ULYLQJ
PRWRUF\FOH
DXWRPRELOHV SDVVHQJHU
DXWR
DXWRPRELOH
3DUNHG
GHDOHUVKLS
WUXFN
0LQLYDQ
,W LV QRZ VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG WR FRPSXWH WKH FRVLQH VLPLODULWLHV
WR YHKLFOH IRU DLUSODQH DQG ZKHHOFKDLU ZKLFK DUH DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\ &OHDUO\ WKHVH YDOXHV DUH QRW WKDW IDU DZD\ IURP WKH
ORZHVW RQH OLVWHG DERYH IRU GHDOHUVKLS +RZHYHU ZH DUH QRZ IDFLQJ
WKH VDPH NLQG RI TXHVWLRQ DV -HQQHMRKQ HW DO IDFHG :KHQ LV D
GLIIHUHQFH LQ FRVLQHV ELJ DQG PHDQLQJIXO"
7KH DQVZHU DJDLQ UHTXLUHV VRPH H[SHULHQFH LQ ´WKLQNLQJ
VWDWLVWLFDOO\µ 7KH EUDQFK RI LQIHUHQWLDO VWDWLVWLFV LV VWLOO GRPLQDWHG
E\ WKH VRFDOOHG 1XOO +\SRWKHVLV 6LJQLILFDQFH 7HVWLQJ 1+67
SDUDGLJP ,Q WKDW SDUDGLJP UHVHDUFKHUV H[SORUH WKHLU UHVXOWV E\
6HH -HIIUH\ 3HQQLQJWRQ HW DO *OR9H *OREDO 9HFWRUV IRU :RUG 5HSUHVHQWDWLRQ
67$1 8 KWWSVQOSVWDQIRUGHGXSURMHFWVJORYH >KWWSVSHUPDFF1;;.5@
6HH -HQQHMRKQ HW DO VXSUD QRWH 6HH *5,(6 VXSUD QRWH DW ²
@
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
DPRQJ RWKHU WKLQJV GHWHUPLQLQJ KRZ OLNHO\ LW LV WKDW WKH HIIHFW WKDW
WKH\ KDYH REWDLQHG LQ WKHLU VDPSOH FRXOG KDYH DULVHQ E\ FKDQFH
ZKHQ WKHUH LV LQ IDFW QR VXFK HIIHFW LQ WKH SRSXODWLRQ IURP ZKLFK
WKHLU VDPSOH ZDV WDNHQ &RQVLGHU WKH FDVH RI D UHVHDUFKHU VWXG\LQJ
WKH JHQGHU SD\ JDS LQ D FRXQWU\ ZKRVH DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ WRXWV WKDW
WKHUH LV QR JHQGHU SD\ JDS WKHUH DQ\PRUH ,I WKH UHVHDUFKHU ILQGV D
SD\ JDS RI 86 SHU \HDU EHWZHHQ PHQ DQG ZRPHQ LQ
WKDW FRXQWU\ ZLWK PHQ HDUQLQJ PRUH WKH 1+67 SDUDGLJP ZRXOG
UHTXLUH WKDW WKH UHVHDUFKHU WKHQ FRPSXWHV KRZ SUREDEOH LW LV WR ILQG
WKDW SD\ JDS RI 86 ZKHQ WKHUH LV VXSSRVHG EH QR JDS
7UDGLWLRQDOO\ LI WKDW SUREDELOLW\ LV EHORZ LH WKHQ WKH
UHVHDUFKHU ZLOO DVVXPH WKDW WKH REVHUYHG JDS LV QRW D VDPSOLQJ
DFFLGHQW DQG WKDW WKHUH UHDOO\ LV VWLOO D SD\ JDS
2QH ZD\ WR GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU WKH SD\ JDS RI 86 LQ WKH VDPSOH LV FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK WKH JRYHUQPHQW·V FODLP WKDW WKHUH
LV QR SD\ JDS LV FRQFHSWXDOO\ D ELW VLPLODU WR WKH ERRWVWUDSSLQJ
DSSURDFK IURP DERYH 5HFDOO IURP WKH DERYH H[DPSOH WKDW WKDW
FRXQWU\·V DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ VWLSXODWHV WKH DEVHQFH RI DQ HIIHFW D SD\
JDS ZKLFK LV WKH VRFDOOHG QXOO K\SRWKHVLV RI WKH 1+67
5HVHDUFKHUV FDQ SURFHHG ZLWK WKH IROORZLQJ WKUHH VWHSV
L
LL
LLL
WKH\ FDQ JHQHUDWH D WUXO\ UDQGRP QXOO K\SRWKHVLV
GLVWULEXWLRQ E\ IRU LQVWDQFH UHDVVLJQLQJ WKH VDODU\
YDOXHV UDQGRPO\ WR WKH PHQ DQG ZRPHQ DQG FRPSXWH WKH
GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ ´PHQµ DQG ´ZRPHQµ DJDLQ DQG WKH\
ZRXOG GR VR PXOWLSOH WLPHV HJ WLPHV WKHQ WKH\ FKHFN KRZ PDQ\ RI WKH VLPXODWHG VDODU\
GLIIHUHQFHV DUH •86 WKH UHVXOW LQ WKHLU RULJLQDO
UHDO VDPSOH LI ILIW\ RU PRUH RI WKH LH PRUH WKDQ UHWXUQ D
VDODU\ GLIIHUHQFH RI •86 WKHQ WKH
DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ·V FODLPV RI WKH DEVHQFH RI WKH JDS FDQQRW
EH UHMHFWHG EHFDXVH WKH REVHUYHG GLIIHUHQFH RI •86
FDQ DSSDUHQWO\ KDSSHQ HYHQ LI ZH NQRZ WKH GDWD
DUH UDQGRP EHFDXVH ZH UDQGRPL]HG WKHP RXUVHOYHV :H FDQ DSSO\ DQ DW OHDVW VRPHZKDW VLPLODU ORJLF KHUH :H
GHWHUPLQH D QXOO K\SRWKHVLV GLVWULEXWLRQ RI FRVLQH VLPLODULWLHV WR
YHKLFOHV E\ VHOHFWLQJ UDQGRP ZRUGV IURP WKH YHFWRU VSDFH
GDWD 6RPH RI WKHVH ZLOO³E\ FKDQFH³EH TXLWH VLPLODU WR YHKLFOHV
IRU LQVWDQFH WKH UDQGRP ZRUG VDPSOH LQFOXGHG WKH ZRUGV
,G
6HH (JEHUW 3ORQVN\ VXSUD QRWH 6HH *5,(6 VXSUD QRWH DW ²
%522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO .LD DQG EHOWV VRPH ZLOO EH TXLWH GLVVLPLODU IRU LQVWDQFH 6HQRULWD
<HVVLU VWDWLVP V\QFKURQL]HV EXW ZH FDQ WKHQ GHWHUPLQH
•
•
•
KRZ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKHVH UDQGRPO\ VHOHFWHG
FRVLQHV FRPSDUHV WR WKH WZHQW\ EHVW YHKLFOH ZRUGV IURP
7DEOH WKH UDQGRP ZRUGV VKRXOG EH PXFK OHVV VLPLODU
WR YHKLFOH V WKDQ WKH WZHQW\ EHVW YHKLFOH ZRUGV DUH
KRZ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKHVH UDQGRPO\ VHOHFWHG
FRVLQHV FRPSDUHV WR WKH FRVLQHV EHWZHHQ DLUSODQH DQG
YHKLFOH V DQG ZKHHOFKDLU DQG YHKLFOH V WKH VLPLODULWLHV RI
DLUSODQH DQG ZKHHOFKDLU WR YHKLFOH V VKRXOG EH KLJKHU WKDQ
WKRVH RI WKH UDQGRP ZRUGV WR YHKLFOH V ZKHWKHU WKH FRVLQHV IRU DLUSODQH DQG ZKHHOFKDLU DUH JUHDWHU
WKDQ RI WKH UDQGRP FRVLQHV LI WKDW LV WKH FDVH ZH FRXOG
FODLP WKDW WKH VHPDQWLF UHODWHGQHVV RI WKRVH WZR ZRUGV WR
YHKLFOHV LV VLJQLILFDQWO\ JUHDWHU WKDQ H[SHFWHG E\ FKDQFH
ZKLFK ZRXOG EH PRUH FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK WKHP EHLQJ YHKLFOHV
WKDQ QRW
$OO WKHVH UHVXOWV DUH VXPPDUL]HG LQ )LJXUH &RVLQH
VLPLODULWLHV DUH RQ WKH [D[LV DQG IUHTXHQFLHV RI FRVLQHV IRU WKH
UDQGRP ZRUGV DUH RQ WKH \D[LV 7KH WZHQW\ EOXH OLQHV RQ WKH ULJKW
UHSUHVHQW WKH EHVW YHKLFOH ZRUGV ZLWK TXLWH KLJK VLPLODULW\ YDOXHV
7KH EODFN KLVWRJUDP RQ WKH OHIW DUH WKH UDQGRP ZRUGV DQG MXVW
DV H[SHFWHG WKH\ DUH IDLUO\ FORVHO\ FOXVWHUHG DURXQG ]HUR EHFDXVH
JLYHQ WKDW WKH\ DUH UDQGRP ZRUGV PRVW KDYH QRW PXFK WR GR ZLWK
´YHKLFOHQHVVµ 7KH UHG OLQH VHSDUDWHV WKH KLJKHVW FRVLQH
VLPLODULWLHV RI UDQGRP ZRUGV IURP WKH RWKHUV ZRUGV WKDW DUH WR
WKH ULJKW RI WKDW OLQH DUH ´VLJQLILFDQWO\µ VLPLODU WR YHKLFOH V &UXFLDOO\ DV RQH FDQ MXVW DERXW VHH QRQH RI WKH UDQGRP ZRUGV³
LH GHILQLWHO\ OHVV WKDQ ³LV DV VLPLODU WR YHKLFOH DV DLUSODQH
DQG YHKLFOH LQ RUDQJH PHDQLQJ WKHLU GLVWULEXWLRQDO EHKDYLRU LV
KLJKO\ VLJQLILFDQWO\ FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK YHKLFOHQHVV
@
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
)LJXUH &RVLQH VLPLODULWLHV WR YHKLFOH
,Q VSLWH RI WKH DERYH UHVXOWV LW LV ZRUWK QRWLQJ VRPH
LPSRUWDQW FDYHDWV ZKLFK , FRQVLGHU ZDUQLQJV EHIRUH DGRSWLQJ YHFWRU
VSDFH DQDO\VLV WRR KDVWLO\ )LUVW WKH DERYH FRQFOXVLRQV FRPH ZLWK D
ZKROH KRVW RI GHFLVLRQV DQG DVVXPSWLRQV WKDW DQ DQDO\VW PXVW PDNH
DQG EH DEOH WR GHIHQG HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH DGYHUVDULDO V\VWHP WR DQ
H[SHUW ZLWQHVV RI WKH RSSRVLQJ VLGH WKHUH DUH WKHRUHWLFDO
DVVXPSWLRQV WKH ILUVW RI ZKLFK LV VRPHZKDW XQFRQWURYHUVLDO E\ QRZ
QDPHO\ WKH DERYHPHQWLRQHG GLVWULEXWLRQDO K\SRWKHVLV LH WKDW
GLVWULEXWLRQDO VLPLODULW\ UHIOHFWV UHODWHGQHVV RI PHDQLQJ³, FDQQRW
FRQFHLYH RI DQ H[SHUW ZLWQHVV ZKR ZRXOG GHQ\ WKDW +RZHYHU LQ
WKLV SDUWLFXODU FDVH ZH ZHUH LQWHUHVWHG LQ D VSHFLILF VHPDQWLF
UHODWLRQ QDPHO\ D WD[RQRPLFDO UHODWLRQ WKH TXHVWLRQ ZDV ZKHWKHU
DLUSODQH DQG ZKHHOFKDLU DUH K\SRQ\PV RI YHKLFOH DQG DVVXPLQJ WKDW
WKLV YHFWRUVSDFH DSSURDFK VSHDNV VSHFLILFDOO\ WR WKDW TXHVWLRQ LV D
PXFK PRUH VSHFLILF DQG FRQWURYHUVLDO DVVXPSWLRQ WKDQ WKH YHU\
6HH VRXUFHV FLWHG VXSUD QRWHV ²
%522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO JHQHUDO ´UHODWHGQHVV RI PHDQLQJµ WKDW LV VWLSXODWHG E\ WKH
GLVWULEXWLRQDO K\SRWKHVLV
6HFRQG WKHUH DUH DOVR PHWKRGRORJLFDO GHFLVLRQV DQG
DVVXPSWLRQV PDQ\ RI ZKLFK DUH RI FRXUVH RI D JHQHUDO QDWXUH ,W LV
QRW D SULRUL REYLRXV WKDW WKH WUDLQHG PRGHO³WKH ELOOLRQ ZRUGV
IURP WKH ZHE³LV UHSUHVHQWDWLYH RI ´RUGLQDU\µ VSHDNHUV· GLVFRXUVH
,W LV VLPLODUO\ QRQREYLRXV WKDW WKH VWDWLVWLFDO SDUDPHWHUV XVHG WR
WUDLQ WKH YHFWRUVSDFH PRGHO IRU WKRVH ELOOLRQ ZRUGV ZHUH
FKRVHQ ZHOO 2QH FRXOG KDYH FKRVHQ PRUH UDQGRP ZRUGV WKDQ
HWF :KLOH DOO RI WKHVH DUH VFLHQWLILFDOO\ GHEDWDEOH SRLQWV
QRQH RI WKHP LV WULYLDO DQG OHJDO VFKRODUV ZLOO QHHG WR JHW H[SHUW
LQSXW RQ WKHVH TXHVWLRQV EHFDXVH DJDLQ WKLV GRHV QRW ORRN OLNH D
MXGJH FDQ ¶MXVW GR LW· LQ WKHLU FKDPEHUV
7R ´SURYHµ WKDW ODWWHU SRLQW OHW PH EULHIO\ GLVFXVV DQ
H[DPSOH WKDW LV DOVR UHOHYDQW WR FROORFDWLRQ DQDO\VLV , ORDGHG WKH
VDPH SUHWUDLQHG YHFWRU PRGHO LQWR 5 DQG UHWULHYHG WKH ILIW\ ZRUGV
WKDW DUH PRVW VLPLODU WR YHJHWDULDQ WKH LQWHUHVWLQJ SDUW LV WKH
ZRUGV WKDW DUH WKH WK WK WK DQG WK ZRUGV WKDW RI
KXQGUHGV RI WKRXVDQGV RI ZRUGV DUH PRVW VLPLODU WR YHJHWDULDQ V PHDWHDWHUV RPQLYRUHV RPQLYRUH DQG FDUQLYRUH $QG WKH ZRUG
PHDW LV VLJQLILFDQWO\ PRUH VLPLODU WR YHJHWDULDQ V WKDQ UDQGRP
ZRUGV DUH WR YHJHWDULDQ RU WKDQ PHDW LV WR UDQGRP ZRUGV ,Q RWKHU
ZRUGV WKH SRZHU RI FRRFFXUUHQFH LQIRUPDWLRQ³EH LW VLPSOH
FROORFDWLRQ RI WKH /HH
0RXULWVHQ NLQG RU WKH H[WUHPHO\
DGYDQFHG QHZ YHFWRUVSDFH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV³LV DOVR LWV $FKLOOHV
KHHO $V SHU WKH GLVWULEXWLRQDO K\SRWKHVLV WKHVH PHWKRGV UHDFW WR
DQ\ NLQG RI FRRFFXUUHQFH LQIRUPDWLRQ UHIOHFWLQJ DQ\ NLQG RI
VHPDQWLF UHODWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ QHJDWLRQ DQGRU DQWRQ\P\ OLNH KHUH
WKH VHPDQWLF UHODWLRQVKLS UHIOHFWHG LQ WKH KLJK FRVLQH EHWZHHQ
YHJHWDULDQ V DQG PHDW DULVHV EHFDXVH ZKHQ SHRSOH WDON RU ZULWH
DERXW YHJHWDULDQ V WKH\ VD\ WKRVH GR QRW HDW PHDW 7KXV PHDW LV
LGHQWLILHG DV D WRSLF UHOHYDQW WR YHJHWDULDQ V EXW LW LV QRW D
VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG PHDQLQJ FRPSRQHQW RI YHJHWDULDQ V $QG WKDW LV ZK\ /HH 0RXULWVHQ·V FROORFDWLRQ DQDO\VLV RI
YHKLFOH LV QRW KHOSIXO LI GRQH LQ LVRODWLRQ DW OHDVW ZKLFK WKH\ GR
6HH 0DWWKHZ -HQQHMRKQ HW DO VXSUD QRWH VRXUFHV FLWHG VXSUD QRWHV ²
6HH JHQHUDOO\ 3(11,1*721 (7 $/ VXSUD QRWH 7KLV
FRQIOXHQFH RI PXOWLSOH RI WKHVH TXHVWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ FRUSXV
FKRLFHUHSUHVHQWDWLYLW\ DQG PHWKRGRORJLFDO FKRLFHV LV PRUH LPSRUWDQW WKDQ LV XVXDOO\
GLVFXVVHG VHH %ULDQ * 6ORFXP 6WHIDQ 7K *ULHV -XGJLQJ &RUSXV /LQJXLVWLFV 6 &$/
/ 5(9 32676&5,37 ² IRU DQ H[DPSOH VKRZLQJ WKDW RQFH FROORFDWLRQ LV
VWXGLHG LQ D PRUH FRPSUHKHQVLYH ZD\ WKH UHVXOWV DUH QRW UHDOO\ FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK /HH
0RXULWVHQ·V IUHTXHQF\RQO\ DQDO\VLV RI WKH FROORFDWHV RI YHKLFOH 6HH /HH 0RXULWVHQ
VXSUD QRWH DW ²
6HH 6ORFXP
*ULHV VXSUD QRWH 6HH /HH
0RXULWVHQ VXSUD QRWH DW @
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
QRW GR WKH\ GR DXJPHQW LW ZLWK FRQFRUGDQFH DQDO\VLV )LUVW LW
VHHPV DV LI WKHLU FROORFDWHV DUH MXVW WKH ´PRVW FRPPRQ
FROORFDWHVµ PHDQLQJ WKH\ DUH RQO\ XVLQJ IUHTXHQF\ EXW QRW
ZKDW FRUSXV OLQJXLVWV ZRXOG EH XVLQJ QDPHO\ LGHDOO\ WKH
FRPELQDWLRQ RI IUHTXHQF\ DVVRFLDWLRQ DQG GLVSHUVLRQ 6HFRQG
MXVW EHFDXVH D ZRUG LV IUHTXHQW DURXQG D ZRUG RI LQWHUHVW GRHV
QRW PHDQ RQH FDQ LQIHU WKH H[DFW QDWXUH RI WKH VHPDQWLF UHODWLRQ
WR WKH ZRUG RI LQWHUHVW ZLWKRXW FLUFXODUO\ XVLQJ RQH·V NQRZOHGJH
RI WKH QRGH ZRUG 0RUH VSHFLILFDOO\ LW LV QRW REYLRXV ZKDW WR
LQIHU IURP WKH SUHVHQFH RU DEVHQFH RI FHUWDLQ FROORFDWHV )RU
H[DPSOH WKHLU FROORFDWHV RI YHKLFOH LQ WKH FRQWHPSRUDU\ 12:
FRUSXV LQFOXGH D YDULHW\ RI VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG DXWRPRELOH WHUPV
PRWRU FDU WUDIILF IXHO DQG WKH\ FRQFOXGH WKDW EHFDXVH
YHKLFOH RIWHQ FRRFFXUV ZLWK PRWRU WKLV PHDQV YHKLFOHV KDYH
PRWRUV DQG WRJHWKHU ZLWK WKH RWKHU FROORFDWHV RI FRXUVH YHKLFOHV
DUH W\SLFDOO\ FDUV %XW WKHRUHWLFDOO\ D FROORFDWH FDQ DOVR RIWHQ
RFFXU ZLWK D ZRUG RI LQWHUHVW EHFDXVH WKH ODWWHU RQ LWV RZQ ZRXOG
QRW LPSO\ WKH FROORFDWH WKH UHDVRQ ZK\ WKH FROORFDWH HOHFWULF LV VR
IUHTXHQWO\ XVHG DURXQG YHKLFOH LQ WKHLU GDWD LV SUHFLVHO\ WKDW WKH
SURWRW\SLFDO YHKLFOH LV VWLOO RQH ZLWK DQ LQWHUQDO FRPEXVWLRQ
HQJLQH VR LI RQH PHDQV WR UHIHU WR DQ HOHFWULF YHKLFOH JLYHQ WKHLU
FXUUHQW PHGLD SURPLQHQFH RQH KDV WR DGG WKDW LQIRUPDWLRQ ,Q
RWKHU ZRUGV HOHFWULF LV D IUHTXHQW FROORFDWH SUHFLVHO\ EHFDXVH
W\SLFDO YHKLFOHV DUH QRW HOHFWULF )URP WKH RSSRVLWH SHUVSHFWLYH
RWKHU FROORFDWHV VKRXOG EH UHDOO\ IUHTXHQW EHFDXVH WKH\ DUH
XQFRQWURYHUVLDOO\ D FHQWUDO SDUW RI PRVW YHKLFOHV DQG DOO FDUV
HOHFWULF RU RWKHUZLVH %XW IRU LQVWDQFH WKH ZRUGV ZKHHO V RU
WLUHV DUH QRW DPRQJ WKH FROORFDWHV /HH 0RXULWVHQ OLVW
,Q VXP UHO\LQJ RQ FROORFDWLRQ³FRRFFXUUHQFH³LQIRUPDWLRQ
RQ LWV RZQ LV ULVN\ :RUGV FDQ FRRFFXU IRU PDQ\ VHPDQWLF
UHODWLRQV³WDUJHWHG RQHV RU RWKHUV³DQG QHLWKHU WKH SUHVHQFH RU
WKH DEVHQFH RI D FROORFDWH DURXQG D ZRUG RI LQWHUHVW LV DQ
XQDPELJXRXV FOXH WR D PHDQLQJ FRPSRQHQW RI D QRGH ZRUG ,I
DQ\WKLQJ FROORFDWHV FDQ EXW QHHG QRW KLJKOLJKW VRPH VHPDQWLF
GLPHQVLRQ V EXW WKDW·V DERXW LW ,QIHUHQFHV RI ZKDW WKH\ KLJKOLJKW
QHHG WR EH GRQH EDVHG RQ VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV DQG OLQJXLVWLFDOO\
LQIRUPHG LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI VXFK VWDWLVWLFDO UHVXOWV
6HH LG
6HH LG
6HH 6ORFXP
*ULHV VXSUD QRWH DW ²
6HH LG DW 6HH /HH
0RXULWVHQ VXSUD QRWH DW ² VHH DOVR (VNULGJH -U HW DO
VXSUD QRWH ,,,
%522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO ',6&866,21 $1' &21&/8',1* 5(0$5.6
:KHUH GRHV DOO WKLV OHDYH XV" , WKLQN WKHUH DUH WKUHH PDLQ
FRQFOXVLRQV 7KH ILUVW LV WKDW &/ DSSOLFDWLRQV GR KDYH D ORW WR RIIHU WR
WKH ´PHDVXUHPHQWµ IRU ODFN RI D EHWWHU WHUP RI RUGLQDU\ PHDQLQJ LQ
OHJDO LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ DQG WKXV SURYLGH D XVHIXO FKHFN RQ WKH
FXUUHQWO\ SUHGRPLQDQW EXW XOWLPDWHO\ RIWHQ IODZHG ZD\V RI
GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH RUGLQDU\ PHDQLQJ RI DQ H[SUHVVLRQ )LUVW MXGJHV·
LQWXLWLRQV DUH RIWHQ QRW UHSUHVHQWDWLYH RI WKH WRWDOLW\ RI RUGLQDU\
UHDGHUV LQ D VSHHFK FRPPXQLW\ DQG FDQ EH WDLQWHG E\ FRJQLWLYH
KHXULVWLFV UHSUHVHQWDWLYLW\ KHXULVWLF UHFHQF\ HIIHFWV HWF DV ZHOO DV
LGHRORJLFDOO\ PRWLYDWHG UHDVRQLQJ 6HFRQG DQG DV /HH 0RXULWVHQ
KDYH FRQYLQFLQJO\ VKRZQ MXGJHV RIWHQ PLVXVH GLFWLRQDULHV E\ QRW
UHDOL]LQJ WKDW GLFWLRQDU\ GRHV DFWXDOO\ QRW RIIHU GHVFULSWLYH RUGLQDU\
EXW SUHVFULSWLYH FRPSUHKHQVLYH PHDQLQJV E\ QRW WDNLQJ
VHULRXVO\ HQRXJK WKH ODUJHO\ DFRQWH[WXDO QDWXUH RI GLFWLRQDULHV DQG
E\ SURMHFWLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ LQWR WKH GLFWLRQDU\ WKDW LW GRHV QRW
SURYLGH HJ RUGHU RI VHQVHV )LQDOO\ MXGJHV VWLOO PLVXVH
HW\PRORJLHV /&/ RIIHUV DQDO\WLFDO PHWKRGVWRROV WR SXW OHJDO
LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RQ D PRUH VHULRXV HPSLULFDO IRRWLQJ JHQHUDO FRUSRUD
FDQ RIIHU PHWKRGV WR PDNH DUJXPHQWV IRU ZKDW FRQVWLWXWHV RUGLQDU\
PHDQLQJ PRUH VRXQG DQG OHVV PRWLYDWHG EHFDXVH WKHLU VDPSOLQJ
HQVXUHV D ZLGHU YDULHW\ RI UHJLVWHUV WKDQ PDQ\ RI XV HQFRXQWHU LQ
RXU GDLO\ OLYHV VSHFLDOL]HG FRUSRUD RQ GLIIHUHQW VXEMHFWV FDQ SURYLGH
GDWD RQ ZKLFK WR EDVH VWXGLHV RI WKH PHDQLQJV RI WHFKQLFDO WHUPV
KLVWRULFDO FRUSRUD FDQ KHOS LGHQWLI\ PHDQLQJV RI WHUPV LQ WKH SDVW
IRU RULJLQDOLVWV RU VFKRODUV LQWHUHVWHG LQ WKH PHDQLQJ RI D WHUP DW
WKH WLPH D VWDWXWH ZDV SDVVHG RU DPHQGHG +RZHYHU WKH VHFRQG FRQFOXVLRQ LV WKDW WKH VLWXDWLRQ LV
XQIRUWXQDWHO\ PRUH FRPSOH[ WKDQ WKH DERYH PLJKW VXJJHVW )RU
RQH WKLV LV EHFDXVH /&/ KDV PRVWO\ EHHQ LQWURGXFHG LQ WZR PDLQ
YHQXHV LQ FRXUW RSLQLRQV DQG LQ SDSHUV ZULWWHQ E\ OHJDO VFKRODUV
DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV %XW FRXUW RSLQLRQV DUH SUREDEO\ QRW WKH SODFH
IRU VL[ SDJHV RQ DOO WKH PHWKRGRORJLFDO LVVXHV WKDW ZRXOG QHHG WR
EH DGGUHVVHG -XVW JR EDFN D IHZ SDJHV IRU D UHPLQGHU RI DOO WKH
PHWKRGRORJLFDO GHWDLOV WKDW QHHG WR EH SURYLGHG LI RQH RI WKH PDLQ
JRDOV RI /&/³WKH UHSOLFDELOLW\ RI DUULYLQJ DW RUGLQDU\ PHDQLQJ
LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV³LV WR EH DWWDLQHG
6HH /HH 0RXULWVHQ VXSUD QRWH DW 6HH LG DW ²
6HH 5HVRXUFHV RQ /DZ
/LQJXLVWLFV &/$5.&811,1*+$025* KWWSZZZ
FODUNFXQQLQJKDPRUJ/DZ/LQJXLVWLFVKWPO >KWWSVSHUPDFF1$5'@
@
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
,Q RUGHU IRU DQ /&/ DQDO\VLV WR EH UHDOO\ UHSOLFDEOH ZH QHHG
D ORW RI LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG DOVR SRWHQWLDOO\ GLVFODLPHUV 6SHFLILFDOO\
ZH QHHG WKH /&/ XVHUV· LGHRORJ\DSSURDFKWDUJHW LV WKHLU DSSURDFK
VWHHSHG LQ LQWHQWLRQDOLVP WH[WXDOLVP RULJLQDOLVP OLYLQJ
FRQVWLWXWLRQDOLVP " $UH WKH\ WDUJHWLQJ ODQJXDJH SURGXFWLRQ RU
FRPSUHKHQVLRQ" $UH WKH\ WDUJHWLQJ RUGLQDU\ RU OHJDOWHFKQLFDO
PHDQLQJ" $UH WKH\ IRFXVLQJ RQ V\QFKURQLFSRLQW RI WLPH GDWD RU
GLDFKURQLFKLVWRULFDO GHYHORSPHQW GDWD" $OO RI WKHVH QHHG WR EH
GLVFORVHG DQG GHIHQGHG EHFDXVH WKH\ ZLOO FRGHWHUPLQH RQH·V FKRLFH
RI FRUSXV DQG SUHHPSW FULWLFLVP RI WKH NLQGV YRLFHG E\ %HUQVWHLQ
RU =ROGDQ ,Q DGGLWLRQ ZH QHHG GHWDLOHG LQIRUPDWLRQ UHJDUGLQJ DOO
DVSHFWV RI WKH DQDO\VLV WKH VHDUFK WHUPV UHJXODU H[SUHVVLRQV
WKDW ZHUH XVHG KRZ IDOVH SRVLWLYHV ZHUH DYRLGHG KRZ PDWFKHV
IRXQG ZHUH VDPSOHG DFURVV VSHDNHUV WH[WV UHJLVWHUVJHQUHV $OVR ZH QHHG WR NQRZ WKH IUHTXHQFLHV DQG GLVSHUVLRQV RI
HOHPHQWV DQG KRZ WKH\ DQG WKHLU XQFHUWDLQW\UREXVWQHVV ZHUH
PHDVXUHGFRPSXWHG :H QHHG WR OHDUQ KRZ WKH GDWD ZHUH
DQQRWDWHG IRU ZKLFK OHJDOO\ UHOHYDQW FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG KRZ
WKH FRQVLVWHQF\ RI WKH DQQRWDWLRQ ZDV HQVXUHG DQG PHDVXUHG
$GGLWLRQDOO\ KRZ ZHUH WKH VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VHV FRQGXFWHG³IRU
LQVWDQFH IRU WKH JHQGHUVH[ H[DPSOH DERYH ZKLFK GLVSHUVLRQ
PHDVXUH ZDV XVHG '3 KRZ PDQ\ ERRWVWUDSSLQJ UXQV ZHUH
XVHG ZDV WKHUH RXWOLHU WULPPLQJ QR ZKDW NLQG RI HOOLSVH
ZDV FRPSXWHG D ELYDULDWHQRUPDOLW\ HOOLSVH GLG RQH XVH
VWDQGDUG HUURU HUURU EDUV RU FRQILGHQFH LQWHUYDOV WKH ODWWHU "
$V DUJXHG E\ %HUQVWHLQ RU P\VHOI RQH QHHGV IXOO
IOHGJHG PHWKRGV VHFWLRQV $GGLWLRQDOO\ ZLWK DOO GXH UHVSHFW
GRHV WKH DERYH H[SRVLWLRQ UHDOO\ ORRN OLNH VFLHQWLILF WUDLQLQJ OHJDO
VFKRODUV FDQ MXVW SLFN XS RQ WKH VLGH" /LQJXLVWLFVFLHQWLILF
VRSKLVWLFDWLRQ DVLGH WKH FRUSXV OLQJXLVW RI FRXUVH DOVR QHHGV WR
6HH 6ORFXP
*ULHV VXSUD QRWH DW Q H[SODLQLQJ WKDW HYHQ /HH
0RXULWVHQ GR QRW VXFFHHG DW PDNLQJ WKHLU DQDO\VLV RI WKH FROORFDWHV RI YHKLFOH UHSOLFDEOH 6HH JHQHUDOO\ %HUQVWHLQ VXSUD QRWH =ROGDQ VXSUD QRWH 6HH %HUQVWHLQ VXSUD QRWH $Q DQRQ\PL]HG DQHFGRWH PD\ KHOS LOOXVWUDWH WKH FKDVP EHWZHHQ GLVFLSOLQHV $W
WKH %<8 /DZ DQG &RUSXV /LQJXLVWLFV FRQIHUHQFH , WDONHG WR D OHJDO VFKRODU ZKR LV DOVR
ZLGHO\ FLWHG LQ QDWLRQDO PHGLD DERXW WKH FRQFHSW RI VFLHQFH KHVKH KDG LQ PLQG ZKHQ
FULWLFL]LQJ FRUSXV OLQJXLVWLFV DV ´QRW D VFLHQFHµ³WKH DQVZHU , UHFHLYHG ZDV ¶:HOO VFLHQFH LV
OLNH ZKHQ , PHDVXUHG WHPSHUDWXUHV RI WKLQJV LQ WK JUDGH· , DP QRW SURYLGLQJ WKH SHUVRQ·V
QDPH WR QRW VKDPH KHUKLP IRU D FRPPHQW PDGH PD\EH RII WKH FXII LQ DQ RIIWKHUHFRUG
FRQYHUVDWLRQ EXW WKH TXRWH LV HPEOHPDWLF ,W PD\ VHHP WR PDQ\ OHJDO VFKRODUV WKDW OHJDO
VFKRODUVKLS DQG FRUSXV OLQJXLVWLFV DUH VR VLPLODU EHFDXVH ERWK GHDO ZLWK WH[WV DQG OHJDO
SUDFWLWLRQHUV XVH :HVWODZ LQ D ZD\ WKDW VXSHUILFLDOO\ ORRNV OLNH FRUSXVOLQJXLVWLF ZRUN³EXW
QR WKH\ DUH QRW UHJDUGOHVV RI ZKHWKHU ODZ LV D KXPDQLWLHV VRFLDO VFLHQFH RU VHSDUDWH
SURIHVVLRQDO GLVFLSOLQH WKRVH DVSHFWV RI OLQJXLVWLFV WKDW /&/ LV UHFUXLWLQJ HPSLULFDO DQG
TXDQWLWDWLYH FRUSXV OLQJXLVWLFV DUH H[WUHPHO\ GLIIHUHQW LQ PHWKRGV DQG WUDLQLQJ DQG DUH
HVVHQWLDOO\ D KHDYLO\ VWDWLVWLFDO VRFLDO VFLHQFH
%522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO UHFRJQL]H WKDW DQ\ OLQJXLVWLF DQDO\VLV FDQ FRQVWUDLQ OHJDO
FRQVLGHUDWLRQV EXW OHJDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQV VXFK DV VWDUH GHFLVLV FDQ
DOVR RXWZHLJK DQ\ OLQJXLVWLF DQDO\VLV
7KH DERYH OHDGV WR WKH WKLUG FRQFOXVLRQ ZKLFK FRPHV ZLWK
VRPH KLJKO\ SURYRFDWLYH VWDWHPHQWV DQG TXHVWLRQV³KRZHYHU , DP
PDNLQJ DQG DVNLQJ WKRVH KHUH QRW WR VODP FULWLFL]H RU VKDPH DQ\
SDUWLFXODU VWXGLHV RU DXWKRUV EXW WR XOWLPDWHO\ LPSURYH WKLV
EXUJHRQLQJ ILHOG SUHFLVHO\ EHFDXVH WKLV LV VXFK LPSRUWDQW ZRUN
7KXV DQG DJDLQ ZLWK DOO GXH UHVSHFW PDQ\ /&/ SUDFWLWLRQHUV IURP
WKH OHJDO GRPDLQ
•
•
•
GR QRW \HW VHHP WR NQRZ RU DSSUHFLDWH³DOWKRXJK WKH\
VKRXOG DIWHU DOO WKH\ DUH FLWLQJ WKHRUHWLFDO OLQJXLVWLF ZRUN
SV\FKROLQJXLVWLF ZRUN FRJQLWLYHOLQJXLVWLF DQG SV\FKRORJLFDO
ZRUN HWF³WKDW GLVSHUVLRQ WKH WHPSRUDOWH[WXDO VSDFLQJ RXW
RI OLQJXLVWLF PDWHULDO UHQGHUV DQ\ DQG DOO SXUHO\ IUHTXHQF\
EDVHG UHVXOWV WHQWDWLYH
GR QRW \HW SRVVHVV WKH FRPSXWDWLRQDO RU VWDWLVWLFDO
NQRZOHGJH WR GR VRPH RI WKH UHTXLUHG FRPSXWDWLRQV IRU
GLVSHUVLRQ GLVFXVVHG DERYH WR DYRLG VWDWLVWLFDO SLWIDOOV
DULVLQJ IURP HDV\ RYHUVLJKWV UHFDOO )LJXUH DQG )LJXUH
WR GHWHUPLQH ZKHQ VRPHWKLQJ LV VLJQLILFDQW LH OLNHO\
UHOLDEO\ GLIIHUHQW IURP UDQGRP FKDQFH DQG WR LLL DYRLG
OLQJXLVWLF SLWIDOOV UHVXOWLQJ IURP D SRWHQWLDOO\ RYHUO\
QDUURZ UHOLDQFH RQ FRRFFXUUHQFH LQIRUPDWLRQ UHFDOO WKH
YHFWRU VSDFH GLVFXVVLRQ RI YHJHWDULDQ DQG PHDW SUREDEO\ UHDG WKH UHVXOWV RI RSLQLRQ SROOV HFRQRPLF
IRUHFDVWV SDQGHPLF SURMHFWV HYHU\ GD\ EHIRUH EUHDNIDVW DQG
VHH WKDW WKH\ FRPH ZLWK LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKHLU UREXVWQHVV
DV ZKHQ SROOVWHUV DGG ´“µ WR WKHLU SURVHJUDSKV UHFDOO
WKH ERRWVWUDSSLQJVLPXODWLRQ DQG GDWD HOOLSVHV DERYH \HW
QHYHU ERWKHU WR FRPSXWH RU SURYLGH WKH VDPH LQIRUPDWLRQ
IRU WKHLU RZQ ZRUN
DQG \HW ZH DUH VXSSRVHG WR EHOLHYH WKDW WKRVH YHU\ VDPH /&/
SUDFWLWLRQHUV³WKH ´FUDIW\ LQJHQLRXV FUHDWXUHV ZLWK WKH FDSDFLW\
WR OHDUQ DQG HYHQ PDVWHU QHZ WRROV WHFKQRORJLHV DQG
PHWKRGRORJLHVµ DV /HH 0RXULWVHQ FKDUDFWHUL]H WKH ILHOG³DUH
GHOLYHULQJ /&/ DQDO\VHV WKDW GR MXVWLFH QR SXQ LQWHQGHG WR WKH
IDFW WKDW WKH\ OHDG WR LQ WKH KDUGHVW FDVHV OLIHDQGGHDWK
GHFLVLRQV $QG WKDW DOO RI WKH DERYH ZKLFK LV D TXLFN VQDSVKRW RI
FRUSXVOLQJXLVWLF PHWKRGRORJ\ ZLOO EH WDNHQ FDUH RI ´ODZ\HUV ZLOO
6HH /HH
0RXULWVHQ VXSUD QRWH DW @
&25386 /,1*8,67,&6 $1' 7+( /$:
KDYH WR ERQH XS RQ VRPH EDVLF OLQJXLVWLF PHWKRGRORJ\µ³
VHULRXVO\" :LWK QR DUURJDQFH LQWHQGHG OHW PH PDNH WKH IDFWXDO
VWDWHPHQW WKDW , KDYH \HW WR VHH D VLQJOH OHJDO VFKRODU ZKR KDV
´ERQHG XS HQRXJKµ WR GR DQ\ RI WKH DERYH :RXOG DQ\ RI WKH /&/
SUDFWLWLRQHUV VHHN PHGLFDO DGYLFH IRU WKHLU VD\ HQGRFULQRORJLFDO
GLVHDVH IURP VRPHRQH ZKR WRRN D RQHGD\ ZRUNVKRS RQ
HQGRFULQRORJ\ DQG UHDG DQG KHDUG D IHZ FRQIHUHQFH SDSHUV EXW LV
DFWXDOO\ QRW D PHGLFDO GRFWRU DQG KDV QR VSHFLILF WUDLQLQJ LQ WKH
VSHFLILF H[SHULPHQWDO DQG ELRVWDWLVWLFDO WRROV XVHG LQ
HQGRFULQRORJ\" 6RPHKRZ , GRQ·W WKLQN VR \HW ZH DUH VXSSRVHG WR
EHOLHYH WKDW D MXGJH FDQ GR D ´TXLFN FRUSXV VWXG\µ LQ WKHLU
FKDPEHUV LH RXWVLGH RI WKH FKHFNV DQG EDODQFHV RI WKH
DGYHUVDULDO V\VWHP DQG ´GR ULJKW E\µ D GHIHQGDQW , DP TXLWH
FHUWDLQ WKDW LI VD\ WKH GDXJKWHU RI DQ /&/ SUDFWLWLRQHU RI WKH
DERYH NLQG ZDV IDOVHO\ DFFXVHG RI VRPHWKLQJ IRU ZKLFK FRUSXV
OLQJXLVWLF H[SHUWLVH ZDV UHOHYDQW WKHQ WKDW /&/ SUDFWLWLRQHU
ZRXOG SUREDEO\ EH YHU\ KDSS\ WR KDYH D FRUSXV OLQJXLVW XVH DOO
WRROV RI WKH WUDGH DQG SURSHUO\ VR UDWKHU WKDQ MXVW FDOO XS DQG
VWXG\ D FRQFRUGDQFH GLVSOD\ DQG GR VRPH TXLFN FRXQWV
, DP DZDUH RI KRZ KDUVK WKH DERYH PXVW VRXQG DQG KRZ
LW IDLOV WR FRPPXQLFDWH WKH UHVSHFW , HQMR\ LQ SDUWLFXODU IRU WKH /HH
0RXULWVHQ SDSHU WKDW , DP FULWLFL]LQJ EXW ZKLFK KDV
EHHQ JURXQGEUHDNLQJ LQ VR PDQ\ ZD\V +RZHYHU , ZURWH LW WKLV
ZD\ EHFDXVH /&/ KDV VXFK SRWHQWLDO DQG DIWHU DOO HYHU\RQH LV
VRPHRQH·V GDXJKWHU RU VRQ DQG DUHQ·W WKH\ DOO HQWLWOHG WR WKH IXOO
VHW RI H[SHUWLVH WKDW FDQ EH EURXJKW WR EHDU RQ WKHLU FDVHV" , DP D
TXDQWLWDWLYH FRUSXV OLQJXLVW , NQRZ YHU\ OLWWOH RI WKH ODZ , NQRZ
WKDW IRU MXVW DERXW DQ\WKLQJ OHJDO³P\ RZQ DIIDLUV RU P\ RZQ
/&/ VFKRODUO\ ZRUN³, QHHG D OHJDO H[SHUW WR DGYLVH PH RQ WKH
IDFWV DQG , DP YHU\ JUDWHIXO IRU %ULDQ 6ORFXP·V SDWLHQW LQSXW RYHU
WKH \HDUV DQG , NQRZ WKDW WKHUH ZLOO DOZD\V FRPH D SRLQW ZKHUH
, ZLOO KDYH WR GHIHU WR OHJDO H[SHUWLVH DQG WKHRU\ ,W ZRXOG EH QLFH
WR VHH D VLPLODUO\ UHDOLVWLF GHJUHH RI VHOIDVVHVVPHQW RQ WKH VLGH RI
OHJDO DFDGHPLFV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV HVSHFLDOO\ ZKHQ VRPH RI WKH
PRVW DUGHQW SURPRWHUV RI /&/ KDYH QHLWKHU UHDO OLQJXLVWLF QRU
VWDWLVWLFDO WUDLQLQJ MXVW OLNH , KDYH QR OHJDO RQH DQG ZKHQ ZKDW
LV DW VWDNH LV OLWHUDOO\ KXPDQ OLYHV DQG OLYHOLKRRGV 0XFK OLNH ,
VKRXOG DEVWDLQ IURP DGYLVLQJ FOLHQWV E\ VHDUFKLQJ :HVWODZ
MXGJHV VKRXOG DEVWDLQ IURP ZULWLQJ RSLQLRQV EDVHG RQ D
FRQFRUGDQFH UHVXOW LQ D ZHE EURZVHU³LQVWHDG WKH\ VKRXOG
6HH LG
6HH LG DW ² DQG WKH IDFW WKDW WKH - 5HXEHQ &ODUN /DZ 6FKRRO DW
%ULJKDP <RXQJ 8QLYHUVLW\ KDV EHHQ RIIHULQJ RQHGD\ ZRUNVKRSV IRU MXGJHV RQ FRUSXV
OLQJXLVWLF DSSURDFKHV WR OHJDO LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ
6HH JHQHUDOO\ /HH
0RXULWVHQ VXSUD QRWH %522./<1 /$: 5(9,(:
>9RO ZHOFRPH H[SHUW ZLWQHVV WHVWLPRQ\ RU EULHIV WKDW ZHUH LGHDOO\
FRDXWKRUHG E\ OHJDO VFKRODUV DQG FRUSXV OLQJXLVWLF VFKRODUV 7KDW
ZD\ /&/ ZLOO QRW RQO\ SURJUHVV HYHQ PRUH UDSLGO\ EXW LW ZLOO
VWHHU FOHDU RI WKH VKRUWFRPLQJV LQKHUHQW WR D FRUSXV DQDO\VLV WKDW
LV QRW IXOO\ FRPSUHKHQVLYH WKDW D IXOO\ FRPSUHKHQVLYH FRUSXV
DQDO\VLV FDQ HDVLO\ VWHHU FOHDU RI ,W LV XOWLPDWHO\ LQ WKLV VSLULW WKH
VSLULW RI IRVWHULQJ WKDW NLQG RI UHFRJQLWLRQ DQG GHYHORSPHQW WKDW
WKLV SDSHU ZDV ZULWWHQ
Скачать