Zandler 2017

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Wind and solar power as possible energy alternatives in peripheral high
mountains? Insights from the Eastern Pamirs of Tajikistan
Article · January 2017
DOI: 10.21177/1998-4502-2017-9-4-343-354
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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN TERRITORIES
WIND AND SOLAR POWER AS POSSIBLE
ENERGY ALTERNATIVES IN PERIPHERAL
HIGH MOUNTAINS? INSIGHTS FROM THE
EASTERN PAMIRS OF TAJIKISTAN
1. Introduction
Wind and solar energy are considered as key resources for rural electrification
and to foster sustainability in developing countries (Sovacool et al. 2011). Peripheral
mountain areas are of special interest in this regard, as they are increasingly vulnerable to energy poverty and renewable energy technologies may constitute the only
feasible option for energy supply (Bhandari and Stadler 2011; Katsoulakos 2011).
Furthermore, a high potential of renewable energy resources is anticipated for mountain areas (Förster et al. 2011) and hybrid wind-solar energy systems have gained
popularity in increasing the efficiency of energy generation (Khare et al. 2016). As
a consequence, the development of renewable energy infrastructure in mountain regions was strongly promoted in recent years (Wang and Qiu 2009; Limao et al. 2012;
Fthenakis et al. 2014). However, wind and solar based rural electrification systems in
developing countries may fail or may be subject to unscheduled closures after very
limited operation periods (Tamir et al. 2015). An important reason for these failures
is attributed to insufficient assessment of the anticipated performance of respective
energy resources. Especially in mountainous areas, site specific evaluations are considered as essential to assess the feasibility of wind and solar energy (Tamir et al.
2015), and improvements in renewable energy resource evaluation are necessary in
complex terrain (Angelis-Dimakis et al. 2011). Besides, adequate sizing of energy
infrastructure to meet local electricity demand is crucial for the acceptance of renewable energy systems (Shyu 2013; Tamir et al. 2015). Hence, a straightforward assessment that is adapted to the specific environmental conditions, the local requirements
and that considers the synergy of different energy resources is fundamental for the
success of renewable energy projects (Khare et al. 2016).
The Eastern Pamirs, an arid high mountain plateau in Tajikistan, the poorest country
of the former Soviet Union (Breu 2006), is a region were the utilization of renewable energy resources is considered as urgent issue to enable sustainable development
(Hoeck et al. 2007; Förster et al. 2011; Wiedemann et al. 2012; Kraudzun et al. 2014).
Simultaneously, the pronounced aridity, the high altitude, the exposed geographical
setting and the low surface roughness due to the absence of trees raise the expectation
of a high potential of wind and solar energy. However, besides a rough estimation
by Kraudzun (2014) and a study on the feasibility of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy
generation in the province capital by Zandler et al. (accepted), there is no study that
evaluates the potential synergy of wind and solar energy resources or that compares
costs and anticipated energy amounts of different implementations of respective energy
carriers. This study aims to fill this regional research gap and provide an example for
a locally adapted evaluation of wind and solar energy resources. In addition to the regional aspect, the study evaluates the performance of renewable energy projects based
on transferable methods. Hence, it provides results for sustainable development of renewable energy which applicable to other high mountain regions.
2. Study area
The Eastern Pamirs, with an extent roughly synonymous to the rajon (district)
Murghab (Fig. 1), is a region characterized by undulating mountain-terrain that covers
an area of approximately 38,400 km² with elevations mostly between 3,500 and 5,500
Professorship of Climatology, Faculty of Biology, Chemistry and Earth Sciences, University of Bayreuth,
Universitätsstrasse 30, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany
2
Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research, BayCEER, Dr. Hans-Frisch-Straße 1-3, 95448
Bayreuth, Germany
* e-mail: [email protected]
1
V.9. №4(34), 2017 г.
H. Zandler*,
T. Morche ,
1,2
C. Samimi
1
1
УДК: 550.424
DOI: 10.21177/1998-4502-20179-4-343-354
Wind energy, solar energy and their
hybrid use are frequently considered as solutions for energy provision in the periphery of developing
countries. This is also true for
the arid mountains of the Eastern
Pamirs of Tajikistan, where a high
potential of respective renewables
is expected due to the geographical
characteristics. However, the failure of renewable energy projects
in comparable regions and the
complex topography of mountains
introduce the need for preceding
assessments of renewable energy
resources. Therefore, we analyzed
the potential, cost and synergy of
wind and solar energy for electricity generation in three local villages.
Methodologically, measured climate data, a solar atlas, a scenario
of energy requirements, current
prices for energy components
and literature derived calculation
methods were used to allow for an
integrative evaluation of potential
energy projects. Centralized solar
photovoltaic systems resulted in
the lowest cost (US$ 3,653 - 4,798
per household), followed by decentralized photovoltaic applications,
which amounted to an approximate
doubling of the budget to meet
minimum energy requirements for
basic applications. Wind energy
systems were connected to a much
higher investment cost (US$ 24,453
– 74,151 per household), which
may be regarded as not feasible
compared to current budgets of
regional energy projects. The
analysis of solar radiation and
wind speed showed largely similar
variations over time indicating low
potential for hybrid applications
of these resources. We suggest
that solar photovoltaic systems, in
contrast to wind power, have a high
potential as energy alternative in
the Eastern Pamirs and comparable
mountain areas. The presented
method is easily applicable to other
regions as a pre-assessment tool
to minimize failures of renewable
energy projects for sustainable
development.
KEYWORDS:
Renewable energy; hybrid;
sustainability; photovoltaics;
system costs; energy potentials
Article received 01.11.2017
343
УСТОЙЧИВОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ ГОРНЫХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ
Fig. 1: Map of the study area. Villages investigated are shown in black
font color. Source of digital elevation model: METI and NASA (2009)
meters above sea level (m.a.s.l.). The high altitude, the continental setting and the surrounding mountain ranges lead
to a cold and arid climate with annual mean temperatures
ranging from ‑6 to ‑1 °C and a mean precipitation between
94 and 155 mm (Tajik Hydrometeorological Service 2013).
The treeless vegetation is dominated by scarce dwarf shrubs
(Krascheninnikovia ceratoides, Artemisia spp.), which provide the only locally available woody biomass (Zandler et
al. 2015). Permanent settlements are located in broader valleys at altitudes of around 3,600 to 4,000 m.a.s.l. and animal
husbandry is the main economic activity (Kraudzun et al.
2014). The simultaneous use of dwarf shrubs as winter forage for livestock and the utilization as an important thermal
energy carrier due to lacking alternative energy resources
has led to increasing, partly alarming concern on the sustainable development of the region (Droux and Hoeck 2004;
Breckle and Wucherer 2006; Kraudzun 2014; Kraudzun et
al. 2014). Coal, which is imported over long distances, and
animal manure are also used for heating purposes, but their
availability is limited in the region. Although a Soviet-era
hydropower plant and an electricity grid in the province
capital (named Murghab identical to the district) exist, the
generated energy is insufficient to lower the pressure on local thermal energy resources (Kraudzun 2014). Until today,
other renewable energy sources deliver only negligible energy amounts (Hohberg et al. 2015).
3. Methods
Appropriate assessment of energy systems requires
data of high temporal resolution that reflects diurnal pat344
terns (Suomalainen et al. 2012), and this resolution is also
necessary for evaluating the daily synergy of wind and solar energy. The basic data is provided by three automatic
weather stations in Murghab (3,650 m.a.s.l.), Alichur
(3,900 m.a.s.l.) and Shaymak (3,900 m.a.s.l.) were wind
speed, gust speed, global radiation and temperature were
recorded at a height of two meters, at a one minute measuring and a half hourly logging interval for a period of
two years from 1st of January 2013 until the 31st of December 2014. Although a longer time series would be preferable, a minimum period of one year may be considered
as a reasonable indication of renewable energy potentials
(Angelis-Dimakis et al. 2011). Due to technical malfunctions, some wind speed measurements produced no data
values during one summer in Alichur and Murghab which
were not included in the analysis. The locations of the stations were selected to represent the main settlement areas:
Murghab is the largest town (1515 households, Kreczi
2011), Alichur the second largest village (210 households,
Hohberg et al. 2015) and Shaymak (76 households, Kreczi
personal communication) characterizes the southernmost
part of permanent habitation in the Eastern Pamirs. Furthermore, this setting covers different exposures to wind
and various compass directions. Additionally, official climate stations exist in Murghab, Shaymak and Bulunkul,
but these datasets were not used for the assessment as global radiation is not measured and other climate parameters
are only available on a daily basis. However, data of these
official stations may be used for the appraisal of the long
Т.9. №3(33), 2017 г.
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN TERRITORIES
term representativeness of own measurements. To assess
the potential of wind speed or solar radiation in providing
energy when the other energy resource is at its minimum,
e.g. wind energy during winter or nighttime, diagrams of
the monthly and diurnal variation were compiled.
3.1 Energy requirements
Electric energy is currently only minimally available for households owning small PV sets in Alichur and
Shaymak. In Murghab, grid electricity is subject to strong
voltage fluctuation and electricity supply is cut off several times during the day, making regular use of electric
devices problematic (Kraudzun 2014). Therefore, data on
electric energy consumption cannot be derived from field
observations and a scenario based assessment is necessary.
A central subject is the substitution of thermal energy to
lower the pressure on regional dwarf shrubs. Therefore,
potential energy requirements derived from Zandler et al.
(accepted) are applied which consider the generation of
renewable energy for the consumption of hot water, lighting and television which amounts to 2.14 kWh per day
per household. The respective usage is supported by recent
observations on regional utilization of energy if electricity
is available (Kraudzun 2014; Mislimshoeva et al. 2014).
Sizing of renewable energy systems was calculated to
meet this minimum energy amount throughout the year.
3.2 Implementations of wind and solar energy infrastructure
Several options of utilizing wind and solar energy are
available (Angelis-Dimakis et al. 2011). Regarding solar
radiation, only PV energy production is considered in this
study as recurring and prolonged freezing periods occur
even during summer months which impede the utilization
of solar thermal applications. Two different implementations are considered using PV techniques: (a) a centralized
PV plant were energy is generated, converted and stored
within one large facility and distributed over an electricity
grid encompassing all households, and (b) decentralized
PV systems including storage devices in every household
without an electricity grid.
A large range of capacities is available for wind turbines. However, as the accessibility of the Eastern Pamirs
is difficult and the only major road, the Pamir Highways,
is mostly unpaved, very narrow and crosses unbridged
streams and several passes of more than 4,000 m.a.s.l.,
terrestrial transportation options are very limited in the
region. Therefore, only small-scale wind turbines are hypothesized to be suitable options in the near future. For
this study, the Evance R9000 5 kW wind turbine with a
hub height of 18 m (Evance Wind Turbines Ltd 2015) was
chosen as the basic unit for electricity generation. Respective turbines include an internal inverter and deliver alternating current (AC). The implementation is considered
as a centralized system with additional storage devices
whereby energy is distributed using an electricity grid.
3.3 Calculation of PV energy infrastructure and generated energy amounts
Available solar radiation amounts on an ideally inclined surface are derived from a regional atlas of solar
radiation developed by Zandler et al. (accepted) with a
monthly mean error in relation to the validation stations
of 7 %. For the centralized PV plants, mean monthly solar
radiation amounts were derived from suitable areas (flat
terrain, avoidance of pasture areas, extent corresponding
to required panel area) next to the villages. For the decentralized PV systems, averaged solar radiation quantities of
the settlement area were used. The month with minimum
radiation served for system sizing to meet minimum energy requirements in every month. Costs and system infrastructure adapted to various wattages of the systems,
containing solar modules and inverters to deliver AC,
were calculated according to a modified approach as given
in (Chandel et al. 2014). System components and respective prices are summarized in Table 1. Currency exchange
rates were set to the mean value of 2014 (Oanda 2015).
3.4 Calculation of wind energy infrastructure and
generated energy amounts
Turbine specific power curves determine wind energy
generation at a given wind speed. The power curve of the
Components of different implementations for PV and wind energy generation
Table 1
Component
System
Unit price US$
Source
Module: Solarworld Sunmodule Plus
Centralized / decentralized PV
331
(Europe Solarshop 2015a)
SW 275 mono
systems, all sites
DC/AC Inverter: Fronius Agilo 100.0-3
Centralized PV systems, all sites
20,970
(Europe Solarshop 2015b)
Outdoor
DC/AC Inverter: SMA Sunny Boy 2.5 Decentralized PV systems, all sites
992
(Europe Solarshop 2015c)
AC/DC Battery inverter: Eaton Power Centralized PV and wind energy
330,000
(Eaton 2014)
Xpert Storage 2250 kW
systems Murghab
AC/DC Battery inverter: SMA Sunny
Centralized PV and wind energy
4,304
(Europe Solarshop 2015d)
Island 8.0H
systems Alichur, Shaymak
AC/DC Battery inverter: SMA Sunny
Decentralized PV systems, all sites
3,084
(Europe Solarshop 2015e)
Island 4.4M
Hoppecke OPzS solar.power batteries
All systems
3,733 / 35,030
(Europe Solarshop 2015f)
48V 280Ah / 4700Ah
(Better Generation Group Ltd 2015)
Evance R9000 5 kW wind turbine
Wind energy systems
42,538
V.9. №3(33), 2017 г.
345
УСТОЙЧИВОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ ГОРНЫХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ
Evance R9000 5 kW wind turbine (Evance Wind Turbines
Ltd 2015) is best described by the Richards growth function
as given in Kahm et al. (2010). Generally, power curves
are adapted to standard test conditions considering air
density at sea level. To account for the considerably lower
air densities of the high mountain plateau, the improved
correction algorithm of Svenningsen (2010) was applied
to fit the power curve function to site specific conditions
(Fig. 2). Standard atmosphere air densities were derived
from the International Civil Aviation Organization (1993).
Fig. 2, Power curves of the Evance R9000 5 kW wind turbine
at sea level (red) and the corrected version for an altitude of
3,900 m.a.s.l. (black)
The empirical power law function (Kubik et al. 2011)
was used to convert measured values to a hub height of
18 m. Altitude adapted power curve functions were then
used to calculate generated power at a half hourly interval from wind speeds at the different stations. Gust speed
measurements were used to consider cut-out wind speed.
However, sufficiently strong winds were not measured
during the reference period. Finally, generated AC power
per wind turbine was averaged to monthly values. System
sizing was performed based on the month with the minimum energy generation per turbine.
3.5 Calculation of energy storage
The availability of both wind and solar energy resources
is highly variable in time and hence, energy storage is necessary. The calculation of required batteries is based on the
methodology given in Chandel et al. (2014) and a maximum battery discharge of 40 %, a battery loss of 15 %, battery autonomy of one day and a battery discharge over 10
hours were anticipated. Various sizes of Hoppecke OPzS
solar.power batteries (Hoppecke Battery GmbH 2015) and
inverters for battery charging were selected according to the
requirements of the different implementations (Table 1).
3.6 Total system costs
The costs for electricity generations and battery storage
were summarized for all implementations of renewable
energy systems. To consider expenses for construction,
this sum was increased by 15 % as suggested by (SMA
2015). A summary of all systems and related components
is shown in the appendix.
4. Results
4.1 Cost of renewable energy systems
Cost assessment showed that amounts for PV energy
systems were much lower than those for wind turbine based
energy systems in all analyzed villages (Tab. 2). At the most
favorable location, in Alichur, an implementation of wind
energy generation to minimally produce required energy
amounts resulted in a doubling of the price compared to
the most expensive PV system. In the other villages, the
necessary budget would be more than three times larger.
Regarding PV systems, centralized PV systems resulted in
considerably lower cost with less than half the amount of
decentralized PV systems. The cheapest option, if costs per
households are evaluated, was the centralized PV system in
Murghab, the largest structure, with US$ 3,653.
4.2 Potentially generated energy amounts
All PV systems showed an approximate doubling of
generated energy in summer (July) compared to the minimum amounts in winter (December, Tab. 3). Generation
of wind energy showed more heterogeneity, whereby very
low energy amounts would potentially be generated in
winter in Murghab and Alichur and in fall in Shaymak.
Table 2
Calculated costs of different implementations for PV and wind energy systems
Total cost centralized PV systems
Total cost decentralized PV systems
Total cost wind energy systems
Cost per household centralized PV
systems
Cost per household decentralized PV
systems
Cost per household wind energy
systems
346
Murghab
Alichur
Shaymak
US$ 5,534,230
US$ 15,910,734
US$ 51,386,419
US$ 1,006,046
US$ 2,205,448
US$ 5,135,177
US$ 364,641
US$ 769,233
US$ 5,635,507
US$ 3,653
US$ 4,791
US$ 4,798
US$ 10,502
US$ 10,502
$10,121
US$ 33,918
US$ 24,453
US$ 74,151
Т.9. №3(33), 2017 г.
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN TERRITORIES
Table 3
Monthly values of generated energy amounts considering losses of different renewable energy implementations in kWh per
day per household
Mоnth
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Centralized PV systems
Decentralized PV systems
Murghab
Alichur
Shaymak
Murghab
Alichur
Shaymak
Murghab
Alichur
Shaymak
2.70
3.05
3.91
4.03
4.32
4.97
5.44
4.04
4.53
4.00
2.98
2.25
2.55
2.86
3.62
3.71
3.96
4.53
4.95
3.72
4.15
3.71
2.81
2.25
2.40
2.68
3.39
3.45
3.69
4.24
4.62
3.46
3.89
3.45
2.63
2.26
3.02
3.42
4.41
4.55
4.88
5.63
6.15
4.57
5.12
4.50
3.34
2.51
3.26
3.65
4.62
4.73
5.05
5.78
6.32
4.74
5.30
4.73
3.58
2.87
2.40
2.68
3.39
3.46
3.67
4.19
4.57
3.46
3.89
3.45
2.63
2.26
3.41
6.78
5.84
10.56
7.76
9.72
8.32
5.45
6.22
4.80
5.36
2.78
2.78
8.17
7.74
12.72
13.86
15.30
14.32
9.48
10.23
8.04
7.02
3.82
6.97
8.23
6.42
6.67
8.35
5.89
4.99
4.44
3.27
2.80
5.20
5.05
Maximum values were calculated for spring and summer.
A large difference between maximum and minimum wind
generated energy amounts is visible at all stations with up
to a fivefold increase in Alichur.
4.3 Synergy of wind and solar energy resources
The yearly variations of wind speed and solar radiation resulted in a largely simultaneous pattern in Murghab
and Alichur with maxima in summer and minima in winter
months (Fig 3a and 3b). In Shaymak, radiation maxima
were visible for summer months compared to wind speed
maxima in spring and wind speed minima during fall.
Regarding the diurnal pattern, radiation values resulted
in typical Gaussian shaped curves with maxima at noon.
Wind speed maxima were visible in the afternoon yours.
Minimum values were recorded during nighttime.
5. Discussion
5.1 Comparison of wind and solar energy systems
To our knowledge, this is the first study that compares
the costs of renewable energy systems for independently
generating basic energy amounts in Tajikistan. We showed
that in the Eastern Pamirs, PV energy systems allow for energy provision at a considerably lower cost than expected
from wind energy applications. This is in agreement with
results of Sinha and Chandel (2015) stating a higher potential for PV systems compared to wind power generation
in the Himalayan region. However, different results were
reported from other developing regions where the assessment resulted in lower cost of wind power than PV energy
(Schmidt et al. 2012). One reason for the low suitability of
wind energy in this study may be the influence of lower air
density on wind power generation in this extreme altitude.
This amounted to an approximately 30 % lower energy
generation with the power curve adapted to station altitude
(3,650 – 3,900 m.a.s.l.) compared to the potential energy
generation under standard air density conditions at sea level. Another reason is the very low amount of wind energy
V.9. №3(33), 2017 г.
Wind energy systems
available in winter or fall that requires a large number of
wind turbines to generate minimum energy amounts. As
also stated by Tamir et al. (2015), these results emphasize
the need for detailed resource assessment for renewable
energy projects.
Regarding financial aspects from another perspective,
calculated costs of centralized PV systems may be considered as a reasonable investment with US$ 5,534,230 in
Murghab as a running energy project in the same village,
aiming in modernizing the local hydropower plant, has a
higher budget of US$ 6,646,500 (AHK 2013). Similar to
the results of Wang and Qiu (2009), this shows that solar
energy has considerable potential in arid high mountain
regions and may be one of the most important renewable
energy resources. However, using the cost of this project
as a baseline would also mark wind energy systems and
decentralized PV systems as not feasible alternatives in the
province capital and would only allow for smaller realizations of these systems.
5.2 Energetic synergy
The study showed that the potential of wind and solar
resources to alternatively produce energy when the other
source is at its minimum is very low in the research area.
Both seasonal and daily variations are similar. Hence, power generation in winter and nighttime is problematic. This is
in contrast to results obtained in Tibet, where wind energy
seems to be available during winter and nighttime (Wang
and Qiu 2009). However, from a climatological point of
view, the measured variation of wind energy seems reasonable. Generally, solar irradiation is lower and there is less
energy available in winter. This reduces heating contrasts
and hence, diurnal wind systems (Chow et al. 2013). Furthermore, a stable inversion with low winds persists in winter which is indicated by our temperature measurements in
different altitudes. The higher wind speeds measured during
afternoon hours may be explained by the break-in of plain
347
УСТОЙЧИВОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ ГОРНЫХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ
Fig. 3. Hourly (lines) and monthly (columns) averages of diurnal global radiation (grey color) and mean wind speed at hub
height (black color) in (a) Alichur, (b) Murghab, and (c) Shaymak
348
Т.9. №3(33), 2017 г.
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN TERRITORIES
to plateau winds usually occurring in the late afternoon as
explained in Chow et al. (2013). During nighttime, surrounding mountains prevent the drainage of cold air from
the plateau and produce strong and deep inversions with
low wind speeds (Chow et al. 2013). The variation of solar
radiation is easily explained by the astronomical cycle of
the sun with slight adaptations due to overcast conditions
especially during August. A realization of sequential hybrid wind-solar energy systems, as outlined in Khare et al.
(2016), may therefore not be feasible in mountain regions
with a comparable setting to the Eastern Pamirs. Regarding
energy amounts, the variation of solar energy would allow
for increased utilization of appliances in summer, such as
the additional operation of an electric cooker per household
for approximately two hours.
5.3 Methodological feasibility
The presented approach is a straightforward, relatively
simple method easily applicable to comparable regions. If
no regional solar radiation atlas based on measurements
is available, other sources may be used as a substitute. A
potential alternative in Europe, Africa and Asia are values
derived from the Photovoltaic Geographical Information
System (PVGIS, EU JRC 2016). In this study however,
such an approach would result in a slightly increased validation error of available radiation from 7 % to 12 % at
the respective stations. An important issue of evaluating
potentials of renewable energy resources is the representativeness of the basic data used for the assessment (Angelis-Dimakis et al. 2011). As the applied climatic dataset is
relatively short, this subject needs further considerations.
A comparison of monthly wind values of own measurements and long term averages (15 year means) available
from official climate stations in Murghab and Shaymak
shows that wind directions and seasonality are largely
identical. Wind speed values extrapolated to 18 m height
show root mean squared differences of only 0.6 m/s. Regarding solar radiation, there are no measurements available for a comparison. However, using precipitation which
is correlated to overcast conditions as a proxy, available
data (Tajik Hydrometeorological Service 2013; TRMM
2014) shows that the reference period applied in this study
is representative of the long term average. Therefore, the
climatic data of this study may be considered as representative of the long term average conditions in the region.
Besides, a number of simplifications were required for the
assessment as some issues were out of scope of this study.
Maintenance of renewable energy systems is an important
cost factor as well, but similar to the outcome of project
calculations in this study, wind energy systems are also
connected to higher maintenance efforts (Sinha and Chandel 2015). Finally, costs for electricity grid construction,
which are also important for the evaluation of energy projects, were not considered in this study as one village is
already equipped with a grid and cost assessment is largely
dependent on site specific conditions which may impede
regional or supra-regional comparisons. However, this
relativizes the higher cost of decentralized PV systems.
6. Conclusion
This study showed that solar photovoltaic systems are
important alternative energy resources in the arid high
mountain area of the Eastern Pamirs. Centralized systems
resulted in lower total cost in comparison to decentralized
systems and the resulting budged is regarded as feasible
in relation to regional energy project investments. Wind
power, on the contrary, showed considerably lower performance in generating energy due to the low air density
and the specific topographical setting. Wind speed and solar radiation resulted in a largely similar pattern with no
complementary effects indicating low potential for hybrid
systems. The presented method, offering a locally adapted resource assessment, is easily applicable in peripheral
mountain regions to initially evaluate the feasibility of renewable energy projects. This is a prerequisite to prevent
failures of new technology installations for sustainable
development.
Appendix
Table A1
System overview
System
Modules
Murghab centralized PV 5,309 Solarworld modules
Alichur centralized PV
657 Solarworld modules
Shaymak centralized PV
226 Solarworld modules
Decentralized PV, all sites
Wind energy Murghab
4 Solarworld modules
(Shaymak 3)
988 Evance R9000 5kW
wind turbines
DC/AC inverters
19 DC/AC Fronius
inverters
3 DC/AC Fronius
inverters
1 DC/AC Fronius
inverters
1 SMA Sunny Boy
2.5 inverter
Batteries
Battery inverters
57 Hoppecke 4700Ah
2 Eaton battery inverters
batteries
8 Hoppecke 4700Ah
73 Sunny Island 8.0H
batteries
battery inverters
4 Hoppecke 4700Ah
27 Sunny Island 8.0H
batteries
battery inverters
1 Hoppecke 280Ah
1 Sunny Island 4.4M
battery
battery inverter
57 Hoppecke 4700Ah
2 Eaton battery inverters
batteries
Wind energy Alichur
91 Evance R9000 5kW
wind turbines
8 Hoppecke 4700Ah
batteries
73 Sunny Island 8.0H
battery inverters
Wind energy Shaymak
110 Evance R9000 5kW
wind turbines
3 Hoppecke 4700Ah
batteries
27 Sunny Island 8.0H
battery inverters
V.9. №3(33), 2017 г.
349
УСТОЙЧИВОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ ГОРНЫХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ
GRATITUDE:
We would like to thank the Volkswagen Foundation for funding the research project Pamir II (awarded to Cyrus
Samimi) that enabled our research activities. Sincere thanks also go to the GIZ Khorog and local contacts for their contributions to the establishment of our climate stations.
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Т.9. №3(33), 2017 г.
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN TERRITORIES
26. Katsoulakos N. Combating Energy Poverty in Mountainous Areas Through Energy-saving Interventions: Insights
From Metsovo, Greece. Mountain Research and Development.
2011 Nov;31(4):284–92.
27. Khare V, Nema S, Baredar P. Solar–wind hybrid renewable energy system: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2016 May;58:23–33.
28. Kraudzun T. Bottom-up and top-down dynamics of
the energy transformation in the Eastern Pamirs of Tajikistan’s
Gorno Badakhshan region. Central Asian Survey. 2014 Oct
2;33(4):550–65.
29. Kraudzun T, Vanselow KA, Samimi C. Realities and
myths of the Teresken Syndrome – An evaluation of the exploitation of dwarf shrub resources in the Eastern Pamirs of Tajikistan.
Journal of Environmental Management. 2014 Jan;132:49–59.
30. Kreczi F. Preliminary data of 2013 energy consumption
survey in the Eastern Pamirs of Tajikistan. Berlin, Germany:
Freie Universität Berlin. Personal communication.
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11];39. Available from: http://edocs.fu-berlin.de/docs/servlets/
MCRFileNodeServlet/FUDOCS_derivate_000000002030/
BGP39-Vulnerabilities_in_the_Pamirs.pdf?hosts=local
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351
УСТОЙЧИВОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ ГОРНЫХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ
СВЕДЕНИЯ ОБ АВТОРАХ / Information about authors:
Harald ZANDLER. Рrofessorship
of Climatology, Faculty of Biology,
Chemistry and Earth Sciences. University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany.
E-mail: [email protected]
Cyrus SAMIMI. Professorship
of Climatology, Faculty of Biology,
Chemistry and Earth Sciences.
University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth
Center of Ecology and Environmental
Research, Bayreuth, Germany.
Харальд ЗАНДЛЕР. Кафедра
климатологии, факультет биологии, химии и наук о Земле. Байройтский университет, г.
Байройт, Германия.
E-mail: [email protected]
Сайрус САМИМИ. Кафедра климатологии, факультет биологии, химии и
наук о Земле.
Байройтский университет, Байройтский центр экологических и экологических исследований,
г. Байройт, Германия.
Thomas MORCHE. Рrofessorship
of Climatology, Faculty of Biology,
Chemistry and Earth Sciences.
University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth,
Germany.
Томас МОРХЕ. Кафедра климатологии, факультет биологии, химии и
наук о Земле.
Байройтский университет, г. Байройт, Германия.
ВЕТРОВАЯ И СОЛНЕЧНАЯ ЭНЕРГИЯ КАК ВОЗМОЖНЫЕ ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКИЕ АЛЬТЕРНАТИВЫ
В ПЕРИФЕРИЙНЫХ ГОРНЫХ СТРАНАХ. АНАЛИТИЧЕСКАЯ ОЦЕНКА НА ПРИМЕРЕ
ВОСТОЧНЫХ ПАМИР ТАДЖИКИСТАНА
Х. Зандлер*
Т. Морхе
1,2
С. Самими
1
Байройтский университет, г. Байройт, Германия
2
Байройтский центр экологических и экологических исследований, г. Байройт, Германия
*
e-mail: [email protected]
1
1
DOI: 10.21177/1998-4502-2017-9-4-343-354
Ветровая и солнечная энергия, а также их гибридное
использование часто рассматриваются в качестве решения
вопроса энергоснабжения периферийных и развивающихся стран. Это относится и к засушливым горам Восточного Памира в Таджикистане, где в силу географических
особенностей вероятность потенциального использования
возобновляемых источников энергии высока. Однако, высокая вероятность неудачной реализации подобных проектов в аналогичных регионах, а также сложный рельеф
гор вынуждают прибегать к предварительной оценке возобновляемых источников энергии. В связи с этим мы проанализировали потенциал, стоимость и синергию ветровой и солнечной энергии для получения электричества в
трех местных поселениях. Для интеграционной оценки
потенциала энергетических проектов были использованы
следующие методы: измерение климатических параметров, глобальный атлас солнечной энергии, возможные
сценарии энергозатрат, текущие цены на комплектующие
энергоустановок и научно обоснованные методы расчета.
352
Централизованная фотоэлектрическая система показала в
результате наименьшую стоимость (3,653 - 4,798 долларов США за домовладение), за которой следуют децентрализованные фотоэлектрические системы, требующие
приблизительно вдвое больших затрат для выполнения
минимальных требований к энергоэффективности. Ветроэнергетические системы требуют гораздо более высоких
инвестиционных издержек (24,453 – 74,151 доллара США
за домовладение), которые могут рассматриваться как нерентабельные для современных региональных энергетических проектов. Анализ потенциала солнечного излучения
и скорости ветра показал схожесть зависимости от временных колебаний, которые свидетельствуют о низком потенциале гибридного применения этих ресурсов. Мы предполагаем, что солнечные фотоэлектрические системы, в
отличие от ветряных, обладают более высоким потенциалом в качестве энергетической альтернативы в Восточном
Памире и аналогичных горных районах. Представленный
метод легко применим к другим регионам для предвари-
Т.9. №4(34), 2017 г.
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN TERRITORIES
тельной оценки, что может позволить свести к минимуму
риски при реализации проектов возобновляемых источников энергии в интересах устойчивого развития.
Ключевые слова: возобновляемая энергия, гибридный,
устойчивость, фотоэлектрический, системные издержки,
энергетические потенциалы
Литература:
1. AHK. Delegation of the German economy for Central
Asia News. KfW financing modernization of hydro-power
plant in the Pamirs with 5 million euros (in German). URL:
http://zentralasien.ahk.de/news/einzelansicht-nachrichten/
artikel/kfw-finanziert-modernisierung-von-wasserkraftwerkim-pamir-fuer-5-mio-euro/?cHash=da9bf6df826d7cc83d89fd
24ca34d009 (accessed date: 18.11.2015).
2. Angelis-Dimakis A, Biberacher M, Dominguez J, Fiorese G, Gadocha S, Gnansounou E, et al. Methods and tools
to evaluate the availability of renewable energy sources. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2011, No.15(2),
pp. 1182-1200.
3. Better Generation Group Ltd. Evance Iskra R9000 Wind
Turbine. URL: http://www.bettergeneration.co.uk/wind-turbine-reviews/evance-iskra-r9000-wind-turbine.html (accessed
date: 24.03.2015).
4. Bhandari R, Stadler I. Electrification using solar photovoltaic systems in Nepal. Applied Energy, 2011, No. 88(2),
pp. 458–65.
5. Breckle S-W, Wucherer W. Vegetation of the Pamir (Tajikistan): Land Use and Desertification Problems. In E. Spehn,
M. Liberman, and C. Körner (editors), Land Use Change and
Mountain Biodiversity. Boca Raton, Florida, 2006.
URL:
http://www.researchgate.net/profile/S_Breckle/
publication/261596540_Vegetation_of_the_Pamir_(Tajikistan)_Land_Use_and_Desertification_Problems_1/
links/00b7d534c3f3d44e7e000000.pdf
(accessed
date:
05.03.2015).
6. Breu T. Sustainable Land Management in the Tajik
Pamirs: The Role of Knowledge for Sustainable Development.
Berne: NCCR North-South / Centre for Development and Environment (CDE), 2006.
7. Chandel M, Agrawal GD, Mathur S, Mathur A. Technoeconomic analysis of solar photovoltaic power plant for garment zone of Jaipur city. Case Studies in Thermal Engineering,
2014, No. 2, pp. 1–7.
8. Chow FK, De Wekker SFJ, Snyder BJ. Mountain Weather Research and Forecasting. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands,
2013.
9. Droux R, Hoeck T. Energy for Gorno Badakhshan! Hydropower and Firewood Cultivation. Analysis of the Energy
Situation in the Tajik Pamirs and Its Consequences for Land
Use and Resource Management. Joint Diploma Thesis. Centre
for Development and Environment (CDE), University of Berne,
Switzerland, 2004.
10. Eaton. Eaton Power Xpert Storage 2250 kW bidirectional inverter data sheet. URL: http://www.eaton.com/
ecm/groups/public/@pub/@electrical/documents/content/
pa08303002e.pdf (accessed date: 12.06.2015).
11. EU JRC. Photovoltaic Geographical Information System - PVGIS. URL: http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/index.htm
(accessed date: 11.03.2016).
12. Europe Solarshop. Solar World 275 Mono price
V.9. №4(34), 2017 г.
quote. URL: http://www.europe-solarshop.com/solar-panels/
solarworld-275.html (accessed date: 15.12.2015).
13. Europe Solarshop. Fronius Agilo 100.0-3 Outdoor
price quote. URL: http://www.europe-solarshop.com/inverters/fronius-agilo-100-0-3-outdoor.html (accessed date:
15.12.2015).
14. Europe Solarshop. SMA Sunny Boy 2.5 price quote.
URL: http://www.europe-solarshop.com/sma/sunny-boy/smasunny-boy-2-5.html (accessed date: 15.12.2015).
15. Europe Solarshop. SMA Sunny Island 8.0H price
quote. URL: http://www.europe-solarshop.com/inverters/smasunny-island-8-0h.html (accessed date: 15.12.2015).
16. Europe Solarshop. SMA Sunny Island 4.4M price
quote. URL: http://www.europe-solarshop.com/inverters/smasunny-island-4-4m.html (accessed date: 15.12.2015).
17. Europe Solarshop. Battery Hoppecke 26 OPzS solar.
power 4700 / 48V price quote. URL: http://www.europe-solarshop.com/batteries/battery-hoppecke-26-opzs-solar-power4700-48v.html (accessed date: 14.12.2015).
18. Evance Wind Turbines Ltd. Evance R9000 specifications. URL: http://www.swtfieldlab.ugent.be/wp‑content/
uploads/2012/10/Evance_R9000_Specs.pdf (accessed date:
14.12.2015).
19. Förster H, Pachova NI, Renaud FG. Energy and Land
Use in the Pamir-Alai Mountains: Examples From Five Social-ecological Regions. Mountain Research and Development, 2011, No. 31(4), pp. 305-14.
20. Fthenakis V., Atia A.A., Perez M., Florenzano A.,
Grageda M., Lofat M., et al. Prospects for photovoltaics in
sunny and arid regions: A solar grand plan for Chile-Part Iinvestigation of PV and wind penetration. Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC), IEEE 40th, 2014, pp.1424–1429.
URL: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpls/abs_all.
jsp?arnumber=6925184 (accessed date: 11.03.2015).
21. Hoeck T., Droux R., Breu T., Hurni H., Maselli D. Rural energy consumption and land degradation in a post-Soviet
setting–an example from the west Pamir mountains in Tajikistan. Energy for Sustainable Development, 2007, No.11(1),
pp. 48-57.
22. Hohberg G., Kreczi F., Zandler H. High mountain societies and limited local resources - livelihoods and energy utilization in the Eastern Pamirs, Tajikistan. Erdkunde, 2015, No.
69(3), pp. 233–246.
23. Hoppecke Battery GmbH. Battery Hoppecke OPzS
solar power datasheet. URL: http://www.europe-solarshop.
com/downloadfiles/hoppecke-batteries/OPzS_solar.power_
en0213.pdf (accessed date: 14.12.2015).
24. International Civil Aviation Organization. Manual of
the ICAO Standard Atmosphere - extended to 80 kilometers
(262 500 feet). Third Edition. Montreal, Quebec, Canada,
1993.
25. Kahm M., Hasenbrink G., Lichtenberg-Fraté H., Ludwig J., Kschischo M., etc. Grofit: fitting biological growth
curves with R. Journal of Statistical Software, 2010, No.
33(7), pp. 1-21.
26. Katsoulakos N. Combating Energy Poverty in Mountainous Areas Through Energy-saving Interventions: Insights
From Metsovo, Greece. Mountain Research and Development, 2011, No. 31(4), pp. 284–292.
27. Khare V., Nema S., Baredar P. Solar–wind hybrid re-
353
УСТОЙЧИВОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ ГОРНЫХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ
newable energy system: a review. Renewable and Sustainable
Energy Reviews, 2016, No. 58, 23–33.
28. Kraudzun T. Bottom-up and top-down dynamics of the
energy transformation in the Eastern Pamirs of Tajikistan’s
Gorno Badakhshan region. Central Asian Survey, 2014, No.
33(4), pp. 550–565.
29. Kraudzun T., Vanselow K.A., Samimi C. Realities and
myths of the Teresken Syndrome – An evaluation of the exploitation of dwarf shrub resources in the Eastern Pamirs of
Tajikistan. Journal of Environmental Management, 2014, No.
132, 49–59.
30. Kreczi F. Preliminary data of 2013 energy consumption survey in the Eastern Pamirs of Tajikistan. Berlin, Germany: Freie Universität Berlin. Personal communication.
31. Kreczi F. Vulnerabilities in the Eastern Pamirs. Berlin Geographical Papers, 2011. URL: http://edocs.fu‑berlin.
de/docs/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/FUDOCS_derivate_000000002030/BGP39-Vulnerabilities_in_the_Pamirs.
pdf?hosts=local (accessed date: 11.03.2015).
32. Kubik M.L., Coker P.J., Hunt C. Using Meteorological
Wind Data to Estimate Turbine Generation Output: A Sensitivity Analysis. Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings.
Linköping, Sweden: Linköping University Electronic Press,
2011, pp. 4074–4081.
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Статья поступила в редакцию 01.11.2017
Т.9. №4(34), 2017 г.
УСТОЙЧИВОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ ГОРНЫХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ
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Т.9. №4(34), 2017 г.