ÈÑÒÎÐÈß Ì.Â. Êîíäðàøèí*
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ÊîíöåïöèÿÂåñòíèê ëèíãâèñòè÷åñêîãî ñèìâîëèçìà Àâðåëèÿ Àâãóñòèíà ÑàìÃÓ. 2015. ¹ 4 (126) 127 ÈÑÒÎÐÈß ÓÄÊ 33:338 Ì.Â. Êîíäðàøèí* ÑÎÂÐÅÌÅÍÍÀß ÐÎÑÑÈÉÑÊÀß È ÇÀÐÓÁÅÆÍÀß ÈÑÒÎÐÈÎÃÐÀÔÈß Î ÏÎÄÃÎÒÎÂÊÅ ÑÎÂÅÒÑÊÎÉ ÝÊÎÍÎÌÈÊÈ Ê ÂÅËÈÊÎÉ ÎÒÅ×ÅÑÒÂÅÍÍÎÉ ÂÎÉÍÅ Â ñòàòüå àíàëèçèðóþòñÿ ðåçóëüòàòû èçó÷åíèÿ ïðîáëåìû ïîäãîòîâêè ýêîíîìèêè ÑÑÑÐ ê Âåëèêîé Îòå÷åñòâåííîé âîéíå ñîâðåìåííûìè ðîññèéñêèìè è çàðóáåæíûìè èñòîðèêàìè (ÑØÀ, Àíãëèè, ßïîíèè).  öåíòðå âíèìàíèÿ èõ ïóáëèêàöèè, çàòðàãèâàþùèå íàèáîëåå âàæíûå è äèñêóññèîííûå àñïåêòû ïðîáëåìû: ðåçóëüòàòû èíäóñòðèàëèçàöèè ñ òî÷êè çðåíèÿ ãîòîâíîñòè ÑÑÑÐ ê âîéíå, àëüòåðíàòèâíûå ïîäõîäû ê ñòàëèíñêîìó âàðèàíòó ôîðñèðîâàííîé èíäóñòðèàëèçàöèè è ò. ä. Íà îñíîâå ïðîâåäåííîãî àíàëèçà äåëàåòñÿ âûâîä îá àêòóàëüíîñòè ïðîáëåìû, íåîáõîäèìîñòè åå äàëüíåéøåãî èçó÷åíèÿ êàê ðîññèéñêèìè, òàê è çàðóáåæíûìè ó÷åíûìè. Êëþ÷åâûå ñëîâà: èñòîðèÿ ñîâåòñêîé ýêîíîìèêè, Âåëèêàÿ Îòå÷åñòâåííàÿ âîéíà, èíäóñòðèàëèçàöèÿ, âîåííî-ïðîìûøëåííûé êîìïëåêñ, àëüòåðíàòèâíàÿ èñòîðèÿ, ðîññèéñêàÿ è çàðóáåæíàÿ èñòîðèîãðàôèè.  ñâÿçè ñ 70-ëåòèåì Âåëèêîé Ïîáåäû ïî-ïðåæíåìó àêòóàëüíîé è äèñêóññèîííîé â ðîññèéñêîé è çàðóáåæíîé èñòîðèîãðàôèè îñòàåòñÿ ïðîáëåìà ãîòîâíîñòè ÑÑÑÐ ê âîéíå ñ òî÷êè çðåíèÿ âîåííî-ïðîìûøëåííîãî ïîòåíöèàëà è îïòèìàëüíîñòè ïðîâîäèìîé â ãîäû ïåðâûõ ïÿòèëåòîê ñòàëèíñêèì ðóêîâîäñòâîì ñòðàíû ïîëèòèêè ïî åãî íàðàùèâàíèþ.  ïîñëåäíèå äåñÿòèëåòèÿ óêàçàííàÿ ïðîáëåìà, íà íàø âçãëÿä, ïîëó÷èëà âñåñòîðîííåå è îáúåêòèâíîå îñâåùåíèå â ðÿäå äîêóìåíòàëüíûõ ïóáëèêàöèé, à òàêæå è â ìîíîãðàôè÷åñêèõ èññëåäîâàíèÿõ. Ïðè÷åì ñðåäè íèõ ìîæíî âûäåëèòü êàê ðàáîòû ðîññèéñêèõ, òàê è çàðóáåæíûõ èññëåäîâàòåëåé. Íàïðèìåð, îñîáûé èíòåðåñ ïðåäñòàâëÿþò ñáîðíèêè äîêóìåíòîâ ñåðèè «Èñòîðèÿ ñîçäàíèÿ è ðàçâèòèÿ îáîðîííî-ïðîìûøëåííîãî êîìïëåêñà Ðîññèè ÑÑÑÐ. 1901– 1963 ãã.», âûõîäÿùèå â ñâåò ïîä ãðèôîì Ðîññèéñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâåííîãî àðõèâà ýêî* Ó Êîíäðàøèí Ì.Â., 2015 Êîíäðàøèí Ìàêñèì Âèêòîðîâè÷ (kondrashin.mv@gmail.com), êàôåäðà èñòîðèè Ðîññèè, êðàåâåäåíèÿ è ìåòîäèêè ïðåïîäàâàíèÿ èñòîðèè, Ïåíçåíñêèé ãîñóäàðñòâåííûé óíèâåðñèòåò, 440026, ã. Ïåíçà, óë. Êðàñíàÿ, 40. 128 Ì.Â. Êîíäðàøèí íîìèêè. Âòîðîé è òðåòèé òîìà ýòîé ñåðèè ïîñâÿùåíû ñòðîèòåëüñòâó âîåííûõ çàâîäîâ è âîåííî-ïðîìûøëåííîé ïîëèòèêè â ÑÑÑÐ íàêàíóíå è â ãîäû ïåðâûõ ïÿòèëåòîê.  íèõ îïóáëèêîâàíû ðàíåå ñåêðåòíûå äîêóìåíòû ó÷ðåæäåíèé, îñóùåñòâëÿâøèõ ðóêîâîäñòâî îáîðîííîé ïðîìûøëåííîñòüþ â ðàññìàòðèâàåìûé ïåðèîä (ÑÍÊ, ÑÒÎ, Êîìèòåò Îáîðîíû, ñåêðåòàðèàòû È.Â. Ñòàëèíà, Â.Ì. Ìîëîòîâà, Ã.Ê. Îðäæîíèêèäçå, íàðêîìàòû òÿæåëîé, îáîðîííîé ïðîìûøëåííîñòè è ò. ä.). Îíè óáåäèòåëüíî ñâèäåòåëüñòâóþò î ïðèîðèòåòå èíòåðåñîâ îáîðîíû â ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé ïîëèòèêå ñòàëèíèçìà â ïðåäâîåííûå äåñÿòèëåòèÿ [12, 14]. Íà ýòó òåìó, íà íàø âçãëÿä, çàñëóæèâàþò ñàìîé âûñîêîé îöåíêè è âíèìàíèÿ øèðîêîé îáùåñòâåííîñòè ïóáëèêàöèè òàêèõ ñîâðåìåííûõ ðîññèéñêèõ èññëåäîâàòåëåé, êàê Ì.Þ. Ìóõèíà [8], À.Ê. Ñîêîëîâà [13], À.Ì. Ìàðêåâè÷à [6], È.Â. Áûñòðîâîé [2], Í.Ñ. Ñèìîíîâà [11], À.Ñ. Ñòåïàíîâà [15] è äð.  íèõ íà íîâîì è äîñòîâåðíîì àðõèâíîì ìàòåðèàëå ðàññìîòðåíû âîïðîñû ðàçðàáîòêè è ðåàëèçàöèè ñòàëèíñêèì ðóêîâîäñòâîì ïðîãðàììû óñêîðåííîé âîåííîé ìîäåðíèçàöèè ñòðàíû: ýâîëþöèÿ ñèñòåìû óïðàâëåíèÿ ñîâåòñêîé âîåííîé ïðîìûøëåííîñòüþ, ìåõàíèçì ïëàíèðîâàíèÿ âîåííîãî ïðîèçâîäñòâà, ôèíàíñîâî-ýêîíîìè÷åñêîå îáåñïå÷åíèå âîåííîãî ñòðîèòåëüñòâà è ò. ä. Àâòîðû ïîêàçûâàþò âñå ñòîðîíû ýòîãî ïðîöåññà, â òîì ÷èñëå íåãàòèâíûå äëÿ ñîâåòñêîé îáîðîííîé ïðîìûøëåííîñòè, ñâÿçàííûå ñ ïîñëåäñòâèÿìè ñòàëèíñêîé ïîëèòèêè òåððîðà è ðåïðåññèé â 1930-å ãã. («áîðüáà ñ âðåäèòåëüñòâîì», «âðàãàìè íàðîäà» è ò. ä.) [13, ñ. 156–157]. Íî ïðè ýòîì âñå îíè åäèíîäóøíû âî ìíåíèè î óñïåøíîé ðàáîòå, ïðîäåëàííîé ñòàëèíñêèì ðóêîâîäñòâîì ÑÑÑÐ â ãîäû ïåðâûõ ïÿòèëåòîê â äåëå ïîäãîòîâêè ñòðàíû ê âîéíå. Òåì ñàìûì, íà íàø âçãëÿä, äàííûå àâòîðû ïîäâîäÿò ÷èòàòåëÿ è ñïåöèàëèñòîâ ê âûâîäó, ÷òî, íåñìîòðÿ íà âñå èçäåðæêè ïðîâîäèìîé âíóòðåííåé è âíåøíåé ïîëèòèêè, ðóêîâîäñòâîì ÑÑÑÐ áûëà äîñòèãíóòà ãëàâíàÿ öåëü – ñîçäàíèå ìàòåðèàëüíîé îñíîâû Ïîáåäû â âèäå ìîùíîé è ýôôåêòèâíîé âîåííî-ìîáèëèçàöèîííîé ýêîíîìèêè. Áåç íåå ïîáåäà ÑÑÑÐ â Âåëèêîé Îòå÷åñòâåííîé âîéíå áûëà áû íåâîçìîæíà. Ýòîò âûâîä íå ïðåòåíäóåò íà íàó÷íóþ íîâèçíó, ïîñêîëüêó áûë óæå àêñèîìîé â ïðåäøåñòâóþùåé îòå÷åñòâåííîé èñòîðèîãðàôèè. Íî îí âàæåí, ïîñêîëüêó ïîëó÷åí â êîíòåêñòå äèñêóññèè î «öåíå Ïîáåäû» è âîçìîæíûõ àëüòåðíàòèâàõ ñòàëèíñêîé ôîðñèðîâàííîé èíäóñòðèàëèçàöèè çà ñ÷åò æåñòî÷àéøåé ýêñïëóàòàöèè êðåñòüÿíñòâà è âñåãî ñîâåòñêîãî íàðîäà.  ýòîì æå ðÿäó è äèñêóññèÿ ïî âîïðîñó î ðåàëüíîñòè âîåííîé óãðîçû ÑÑÑÐ â íà÷àëüíûé ïåðèîä ñòàëèíñêîé èíäóñòðèàëèçàöèè. Íà íàø âçãëÿä, â ýòîì è çàêëþ÷àåòñÿ öåííîñòü âûøåíàçâàííûõ äîêóìåíòàëüíûõ èçäàíèé è òðóäîâ ðîññèéñêèõ èñòîðèêîâ â äåòàëüíîì àíàëèçå òåõíè÷åñêèõ âîïðîñîâ âîåííîé ïîëèòèêè ÑÑÑÐ â ðàññìàòðèâàåìûé ïåðèîä è ñìåíå àêöåíòà ïðè àíàëèçå èñòî÷íèêîâ òàê íàçûâàåìîé «âîåííîé óãðîçû». Íàïðèìåð, À.Ê. Ñîêîëîâ è äðóãèå èññëåäîâàòåëè, çàíèìàâøèåñÿ èçó÷åíèåì âîåííî-ìîáèëèçàöèîííîãî ïëàíèðîâàíèÿ ÑÑÑÐ â ïðåäâîåííîå äåñÿòèëåòèå, äîêàçàëè, ÷òî âñå âîåííûå ïëàíû «èìåëè îáîðîíèòåëüíûé õàðàêòåð», òî åñòü ÑÑÑÐ â ýòîò ïåðèîä ãîòîâèëñÿ ê îáîðîíå, à íå ê íàïàäåíèþ [13, ñ. 140]. Êðîìå òîãî, ïî èõ ìíåíèþ, ôàêòîðîì «âîåííîé óãðîçû» áûëî ÷åòêîå ïîíèìàíèå âîåííûì ðóêîâîäñòâîì ÑÑÑÐ òåõíè÷åñêîé è îðãàíèçàöèîííîé ñëàáîñòè Êðàñíîé àðìèè ïî ñðàâíåíèþ ñ àðìèÿìè âåäóùèõ çàïàäíûõ ñòðàí, êîòîðûå àêòèâíî ïåðåîñíàùàëèñü â äàííûé ïåðèîä. Ïîýòîìó ïðåîäîëåíèå ýòîé îòñòàëîñòè íå áûëî ïðèõîòüþ Ñòàëèíà. Òðåáîâàëèñü äåéñòâèòåëüíî ýêñòðåííûå ìåðû, â òîì ÷èñëå è ñïëîøíàÿ êîëëåêòèâèçàöèÿ, êàê ãàðàíòèÿ áåñïåðåáîéíîãî ñíàáæåíèÿ àðìèè ïðîäîâîëüñòâèåì è ðåñóðñàìè â ñëó÷àå âîéíû [13, ñ. 151–152].  ñâÿçè ñ âîïðîñîì î «âîåííîé óãðîçå» ÑÑÑÐ â 1930-å ãã., íà íàø âçãëÿä, ïðåäñòàâëÿåò èíòåðåñ ìîíîãðàôèÿ îäíîãî èç âåäóùèõ ñïåöèàëèñòîâ ïî èñòîðèè ñîâåòñêèõ Ñîâðåìåííàÿ ðîññèéñêàÿ è çàðóáåæíàÿ èñòîðèîãðàôèÿ î ïîäãîòîâêå ñîâåòñêîé ýêîíîìèêè ê Âåëèêîé Îòå÷åñòâåííîé âîéíå 129 ñïåöñëóæá Î.Á. Ìîçîõèíà «Ïðîòèâîáîðñòâî (Ñïåöñëóæáû ÑÑÑÐ è ßïîíèè (1918– 1945)» [7]. Èç îïóáëèêîâàííûõ â íåé ñòåíîãðàìì äîïðîñîâ çàõâà÷åííûõ â ïëåí ãåíåðàëîâ Êâàíòóíñêîé àðìèè ÿñíî âèäíî, ÷òî óæå â íà÷àëå 1930-õ ãã. ßïîíèÿ âñåðüåç ãîòîâèëàñü ê íàïàäåíèþ íà ÑÑÑÐ, ïîýòîìó îïàñåíèÿ ñòàëèíñêîãî ðóêîâîäñòâà íà ýòîò ñ÷åò áûëè íåáåñïî÷âåííûìè [8, ñ. 349–449]. Êàê ïîêàçàë àíàëèç èçó÷åííûõ íàìè ïóáëèêàöèé çàðóáåæíûõ èññëåäîâàòåëåé íà óêàçàííóþ òåìó, ñðåäè íèõ íåìàëî òàêèõ, êòî ðàçäåëÿåò âûøåíàçâàííóþ òî÷êó çðåíèÿ ðîññèéñêèõ ó÷åíûõ î ïîäãîòîâêå ÑÑÑÐ ê âîéíå â ãîäû ïåðâûõ ïÿòèëåòîê. Íàïðèìåð, â òðóäàõ ÿïîíñêîãî èññëåäîâàòåëÿ Êèîñóêý Òýðàÿìû íå îòðèöàåòñÿ ôàêò àêòèâíîé ïîäãîòîâêè ßïîíèè ê íàïàäåíèþ íà ÑÑÑÐ â 1930-å ãã. Åå ïåðâûì àêòîì ñòàë òàê íàçûâàåìûé «ìàíü÷æóðñêèé èíöèäåíò» 1931 ã. [16]. Êðóïíåéøèé àíãëèéñêèé èññëåäîâàòåëü ñîâåòñêîé èñòîðèè Ð. Äýâèñ, ãëóáîêî è âñåñòîðîííå èçó÷èâøèé ýêîíîìè÷åñêîå ðàçâèòèå ÑÑÑÐ â ãîäû ïåðâûõ ïÿòèëåòîê, òàêæå ïðèçíàë ôàêò ñóùåñòâîâàíèÿ ðåàëüíîé âîåííîé óãðîçû ÑÑÑÐ íà ðóáåæå 1920-õ–1930-õ ãã. ñî ñòîðîíû ßïîíèè. Èìåííî â ýòîò ïåðèîä, à íå ïîñëå ïðèõîäà ê âëàñòè â Ãåðìàíèè íàöèñòîâ, êàê òðàäèöèîííî ñ÷èòàëîñü â èñòîðèîãðàôèè, â Ñîâåòñêîì Ñîþçå ïðîèñõîäèò ðåøàþùèé ïîâîðîò â ñòîðîíó óâåëè÷åíèÿ ðàñõîäîâ íà îáîðîíó [5, ñ. 327].  ñâîèõ ïóáëèêàöèÿõ Äýâèñ çàòðîíóë ïðîáëåìó ñîâåòñêîãî âîåííîãî ïëàíèðîâàíèÿ íàêàíóíå Âòîðîé ìèðîâîé âîéíû.  1930-å ãã. áûëè ðàçðàáîòàíû ñåêðåòíûå ìîáèëèçàöèîííûå ïëàíû â êàæäîé çíà÷èòåëüíîé ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé åäèíèöå, ïðåäóñìàòðèâàâøèå ìåõàíèçì ïåðåêëþ÷åíèÿ ïðåäïðèÿòèÿ ñ âûïóñêà ãðàæäàíñêîé íà âûïóñê âîåííîé ïðîäóêöèè â ïåðâûé ãîä âîéíû. Îí óêàçûâàåò íà èõ íåñîâåðøåíñòâî, ÷òî îíè íèêîãäà íå áûëè ïîëíîñòüþ âûïîëíåíû è ò. ä.  òî æå âðåìÿ èñòîðèê çàêëþ÷àåò, ÷òî «ãðàæäàíñêàÿ ïðîìûøëåííîñòü â ÑÑÑÐ áûëà ïîäãîòîâëåíà ê âîéíå çíà÷èòåëüíî ëó÷øå, ÷åì â äðóãèõ ñòðàíàõ ñîþçíèêàõ» [5, ñ. 328]. Èñòîðèê ÑØÀ Â.Ç. Ãîëäìàí, èçó÷èâøàÿ ïðîáëåìó ó÷àñòèÿ æåíùèí â ñîâåòñêîé èíäóñòðèàëèçàöèè 1930-å ãã., ïðèøëà ê âûâîäó, ÷òî èíäóñòðèàëèçàöèÿ «äàëà ïðèìåð òàêîé ìîäåëè ðàçâèòèÿ, êîòîðàÿ ïðîäîëæàåò âîñõèùàòü ðàáî÷èõ, ïðîôñîþçíûõ äåÿòåëåé è ôåìèíèñòîê âî âñåì ìèðå. Îíà çàëîæèëà îñíîâó îãðîìíûõ äîñòèæåíèé, âêëþ÷àÿ óêðåïëåíèå Ñîâåòñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâà, êîòîðîå ñòàëî êîíêóðåíòîñïîñîáíûì íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîé àðåíå; ïîáåäó íàä ìîùíîé, õîðîøî îñíàùåííîé ôàøèñòñêîé àðìèåé» [4, ñ. 352–353]. Î òîì, ÷òî äëÿ ÑÑÑÐ ãëàâíîé öåëüþ ðàçâèòèÿ âîåííî-ïðîìûøëåííîãî êîìïëåêñà â ãîäû ïåðâûõ ïÿòèëåòîê áûëà îáîðîíà, à íå ïîäãîòîâêà ê íàïàäåíèþ, «ìèðîâîé ðåâîëþöèè» è ò. ï., ñâèäåòåëüñòâóåò â ñâîèõ ïóáëèêàöèÿõ åùå îäèí êðóïíûé çàïàäíûé ñïåöèàëèñò ïî ñîâåòñêîé èñòîðèè – øâåäñêèé èñòîðèê Ë. Ñàìóýëüñîí.  ãëàâíîì ñâîåì òðóäå – êíèãå, ïîñâÿùåííîé ×åëÿáèíñêîìó òðàêòîðíîìó çàâîäó è íàëàæèâàíèþ íà íåì ïðîèçâîäñòâà òàíêîâ («Òàíêîãðàä: ñåêðåòû ðóññêîãî òûëà, 1917–1953»), îí îïðîâåðãàåò ðàñïðîñòðàíåííóþ â íàñòîÿùåå âðåìÿ â èñòîðèîãðàôèè òî÷êó çðåíèÿ î ãîòîâíîñòè ÑÑÑÐ ïåðâûì íàïàñòü íà ôàøèñòñêóþ Ãåðìàíèþ ëåòîì 1941 ã. Èçó÷èâ ðåàëüíîå ñîñòîÿíèå òàíêîâîé ïðîìûøëåííîñòè è äðóãèõ îòðàñëåé âîåííîé ýêîíîìèêè â ðàññìàòðèâàåìûé ïåðèîä, Ñàìóýëüñîí ïðèøåë ê âûâîäó, ÷òî òàêîå íàïàäåíèå áûëî òåõíè÷åñêè íå ïîäãîòîâëåíî è ïîýòîìó íåâîçìîæíî. À êàêîì íàïàäåíèè ìîãëà èäòè ðå÷ü, åñëè â ýòî âðåìÿ â ÑÑÑÐ òîëüêî íà÷àëîñü îñóùåñòâëåíèå áîëüøîé ïðîãðàììû ïî òåõíè÷åñêîìó ïåðåîñíàùåíèþ è îðãàíèçàöèîííîé ïåðåñòðîéêå Êðàñíîé àðìèè ïîä âëèÿíèåì íåóäà÷ Ñîâåòñêî-ôèíñêîé âîéíû 1939–1940 ãã. [10, ñ. 71–180]? Àðõèâíûå èññëåäîâàíèÿ Ñàìóýëüñîíà ïîçâîëÿþò åìó ïðèéòè ê çàêëþ÷åíèþ, ÷òî ïîäãîòîâêà ÑÑÑÐ ê ïåðåõîäó íà âîåííîå ïîëîæåíèå áûëà îòëè÷íî îðãàíèçîâàíà [10, ñ. 173]. 130 Ì.Â. Êîíäðàøèí  ñîâðåìåííîé çàðóáåæíîé èñòîðèîãðàôèè ñóùåñòâóþò äèàìåòðàëüíûå îöåíêè ðåçóëüòàòîâ ïðåäïðèíÿòûõ ñòàëèíñêèì ðóêîâîäñòâîì äåéñòâèé ïî ïîäãîòîâêå ñòðàíû ê âîéíå. Ïðè ýòîì íàèáîëüøèé èíòåðåñ, íà íàø âçãëÿä, ïðåäñòàâëÿåò äèñêóññèÿ íà òåìó «àëüòåðíàòèâ» ñòàëèíñêîé ôîðñèðîâàííîé èíäóñòðèàëèçàöèè. Òàê, íàïðèìåð, ïðîôåññîð Îêñôîðäñêîãî óíèâåðñèòåòà Ð.Ñ. Àëëåí äàë ñîâåðøåííî íå òðàäèöèîííóþ èíòåðïðåòàöèþ ñîäåðæàíèÿ è ðåçóëüòàòîâ ñîâåòñêîé èíäóñòðèàëèçàöèè. Ïðîàíàëèçèðîâàâ õîä ðåàëèçàöèè ïåðâûõ òðåõ ïÿòèëåòîê, îí çàêëþ÷èë, ÷òî ýêîíîìèêà Ñîâåòñêîãî Ñîþçà ñòàëà îäíîé èç íàèáîëåå óñïåøíûõ ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñèñòåì ÕÕ âåêà.  ñâîåé ìîíîãðàôèè «Îò ôåðìû ê ôàáðèêå: íîâàÿ èíòåðïðåòàöèÿ ñîâåòñêîé ïðîìûøëåííîé ðåâîëþöèè», îñíîâûâàÿñü íà äàííûõ îôèöèàëüíîé ñîâåòñêîé ñòàòèñòèêè âòîðîé ïîëîâèíû 1920-õ ãã., ïðèìåíèâ ñëîæíûå ìàòåìàòè÷åñêèå ôîðìóëû, îí ñìîäåëèðîâàë âîçìîæíûå ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå ïîêàçàòåëè ñîñòîÿíèÿ ýêîíîìèêè ÑÑÑÐ ê íà÷àëó Âòîðîé ìèðîâîé âîéíû áåç êîëëåêòèâèçàöèè è ïðèøåë ê âûâîäó, ÷òî «ðàçâèòèå ýêîíîìèêè ïî ïóòè «ìèðíîé êîëëåêòèâèçàöèè» ëèøü íåìíîãèì ïðåâîñõîäèò âîçìîæíîñòè íýïà è ìåíåå ýôôåêòèâíî, ÷åì ïðèíóäèòåëüíàÿ êîëëåêòèâèçàöèÿ» [1, ñ. 245].  çàêëþ÷åíèè îí äåëàåò ãëàâíûé âûâîä: «Êîëëåêòèâèçàöèÿ ñòàëà òîë÷êîì ê óñêîðåíèþ èíäóñòðèàëèçàöèè èìåííî ïîòîìó, ÷òî ñïðîâîöèðîâàëà êàòàñòðîôó â àãðàðíîì ñåêòîðå, à âîâñå íå âîïðåêè ýòîìó» [1, ñ. 245]. Òàêèì îáðàçîì, ïî ìíåíèþ Ð.Ñ. Àëëåíà, ñ òî÷êè çðåíèÿ ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ ðåçóëüòàòîâ ñòàëèíñêèé âàðèàíò ñîçäàíèÿ âîåííî-ìîáèëèçàöèîííîé ýêîíîìèêè áûë áîëåå óñïåøíûì, ÷åì ãèïîòåòè÷åñêèé àëüòåðíàòèâíûé âàðèàíò ðàçâèòèÿ ýêîíîìèêè ÑÑÑÐ ïî ïóòè ÍÝÏà. Ê ïðîòèâîïîëîæíîìó ðåçóëüòàòó ïðèøåë äðóãîé èçâåñòíûé èññëåäîâàòåëü ñîâåòñêîé ýêîíîìèêè, àìåðèêàíñêèé ó÷åíûé, ïðîôåññîð Õàâåðôîðäñêîãî êîëëåäæà (ÑØÀ) Ã. Õàíòåð.  1992 ã. ñîâìåñòíî ñî ñâîèì êîëëåãîé ß. Øèðìåðîì îí èçäàë êíèãó ïîä õàðàêòåðíûì íàçâàíèåì «Íåãîäíûå îñíîâû: ñîâåòñêàÿ ýêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ ïîëèòèêà â 1928– 1940 ãã.» [17].  íåé îí ïðîàíàëèçèðîâàë àëüòåðíàòèâíûé âàðèàíò ðàçâèòèÿ ñåëüñêîãî õîçÿéñòâà ÑÑÑÐ áåç êîëëåêòèâèçàöèè. Îïèðàÿñü íà ñòàòèñòè÷åñêèå äàííûå ðàçâèòèÿ àãðàðíîé ýêîíîìèêè â ïåðèîä ÍÝÏà, Ã. Õàíòåð ñ ïîìîùüþ ìàòåìàòè÷åñêîé ôîðìóëû ñìîäåëèðîâàë âîçìîæíîå åå ðàçâèòèå â 1930-å ãã. è ïîêàçàë, êàêîâû áûëè áû ðàçìåðû óðîæàåâ çåðíîâûõ â ÑÑÑÐ, ÷èñëåííîñòü ðàáî÷åãî è ïðîäóêòèâíîãî ñêîòà, ñåëüñêîãî íàñåëåíèÿ ñòðàíû. Îíè áûëè áû çíà÷èòåëüíî âûøå, ÷åì ðåàëüíûå. Ïîýòîìó àâòîð çàêëþ÷àåò: «Êîëëåêòèâèçàöèÿ íå òîëüêî ïîäîðâàëà ñåëüñêîõîçÿéñòâåííûå ïîñòàâêè äëÿ íóæä íåñåëüñêîõîçÿéñòâåííîãî ïîòðåáëåíèÿ, íî åùå è îáóñëîâèëà êðàéíþþ íåîáõîäèìîñòü èíäóñòðèàëüíûõ ðåñóðñîâ äëÿ ñåëüñêîãî õîçÿéñòâà â âèäå òðàêòîðîâ, ãðóçîâèêîâ è êîìáàéíîâ, ÷òî äîëæíî áûëî âîçìåñòèòü ïîòåðè ðàáî÷åãî ñòàäà. Ýòî ñîêðàùàëî âîçìîæíîñòè èñêîìîãî ïàðòèåé èíäóñòðèàëüíîãî ðîñòà» [17, ñ. 67]. Êàê âèäíî èç èçó÷åííîé íàìè ëèòåðàòóðû, â ñîâðåìåííîé çàðóáåæíîé èñòîðèîãðàôèè áîëüøèíñòâî èññëåäîâàòåëåé, çàíèìàÿ ðåçêî êðèòè÷åñêóþ ïîçèöèþ ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê ñòàëèíèçìó, ïîääåðæèâàþò âûâîäû Õàíòåðà. Íàïðèìåð, èõ ðàçäåëÿåò àâòîðèòåòíûé èññëåäîâàòåëü àãðàðíîé èñòîðèè Ðîññèè àíãëèéñêèé ñîöèîëîã Ò. Øàíèí. Åãî ðàññóæäåíèÿ íà ýòó òåìó ÿâëÿþòñÿ ñâîåîáðàçíîé êâèíòýññåíöèåé «àëüòåðíàòèâíîãî» âçãëÿäà íà ñîâåòñêóþ èíäóñòðèàëüíóþ ìîäåðíèçàöèþ: «Åñëè áû ñîâåòñêàÿ ýêîíîìèêà ðàçâèâàëàñü â 30-å ãîäû òàê, êàê ïðåäëàãàëè ëó÷øèå àíàëèòèêè è ïëàíîâèêè, ñòðàíà, ïî ìîåìó óáåæäåíèþ, ïðèøëà áû ê 1940 ã. ñ íåñêîëüêî ìåíüøèì êîëè÷åñòâîì ôàáðèê, íî îíè áûëè áû ãîðàçäî áîëåå ýôôåêòèâíûìè è ñ áîëåå âûñîêèì, ÷åì äîñòèãíóòûé, óðîâíåì ïðîèçâîäñòâà. Ñåëüñêîå õîçÿéñòâî ê 1940 ã. áûëî áû ïðîäóêòèâíåå íå ìåíåå ÷åì íà òðåòü, ñàìûå ëó÷øèå êîìàíäèðû îñòàëèñü æèâû, ïàðòèéíûå êàäðû ñîõðàíèëèñü â öåëîñòè, îêîëî 5 ìëí ÷åëîâåê ìîãëè áû ïîïîëíèòü ðÿäû àðìèè. Íå ñëåäóåò ëè ïðèçíàòü, ÷òî ýòî áûë áû ëó÷øèé ïóòü èíäóñòðèàëèçàöèè (åñëè áû åìó Ñîâðåìåííàÿ ðîññèéñêàÿ è çàðóáåæíàÿ èñòîðèîãðàôèÿ î ïîäãîòîâêå ñîâåòñêîé ýêîíîìèêè ê Âåëèêîé Îòå÷åñòâåííîé âîéíå 131 ïîñëåäîâàëè, ãèòëåðîâñêèå àðìèè áûëè áû îñòàíîâëåíû íå íà îêðàèíàõ Ìîñêâû, íî ó Ñìîëåíñêà)» [3]? Èçëîæåííûé â ñòàòüå ìàòåðèàë, íà íàø âçãëÿä, ñâèäåòåëüñòâóåò î çíà÷èòåëüíîì èíòåðåñå ñîâðåìåííûõ ðîññèéñêèõ è çàðóáåæíûõ èñòîðèêîâ ê ðàññìàòðèâàåìîé ïðîáëåìå. È ýòî âïîëíå çàêîíîìåðíî. Ôåíîìåí ðåøàþùåãî âêëàäà ÑÑÑÐ â ïîáåäó íàä ôàøèçìîì áóäåò âñåãäà ïðèâëåêàòü âíèìàíèå èññëåäîâàòåëåé. Áèáëèîãðàôè÷åñêèé ñïèñîê 1. Àëëåí Ð.Ñ. Îò ôåðìû ê ôàáðèêå: íîâàÿ èíòåðïðåòàöèÿ ñîâåòñêîé ïðîìûøëåííîé ðåâîëþöèè / ïåð. ñ àíãë. Å. Âîëîäèíîé. Ì.: Ðîññèéñêàÿ ÐÎÑÑÏÝÍ, 2013. 390 ñ. 2. Áûñòðîâà È.Â. Âîåííî-ïðîìûøëåííûé êîìïëåêñ ÑÑÑÐ â 1920-å–1980-å ãã.: ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå àñïåêòû ðàçâèòèÿ // Ýêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ èñòîðèÿ: Åæåãîäíèê. 2003. Ì.: ÐÎÑÑÏÝÍ, 2004. Ñ. 234–248. 3. Âåëèêèé íåçíàêîìåö. Êðåñòüÿíå è ôåðìåðû â ñîâðåìåííîì ìèðå. Ì., 1992. Ñ. 16–17. 4. Ãîëäìàí Â.Ç. Æåíùèíû ó ïðîõîäíîé. Ãåíäåðíûå îòíîøåíèÿ â ñîâåòñêîé èíäóñòðèè (1917–1937) / ïåð. ñ àíãë. Â.Þ. Ëîáîâñêîé. Ì.: ÐÎÑÑÏÝÍ; Ôîíä «Ïðåçèäåíòñêèé öåíòð Á.Í. Åëüöèíà», 2010. 358 ñ. 5. Äýâèñ Ð.Â. Àðõèâû è ýêîíîìèêà ñòàëèíèçìà // Ýêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ èñòîðèÿ: Åæåãîäíèê. 2007. Ì.: ÐÎÑÑÏÝÍ, 2008. Ñ. 323–339. 6. Ìàðêåâè÷ À.Ì. Íóæäû îáîðîíû è ïëàíèðîâàíèå âîåííîé ïðîìûøëåííîñòè ÑÑÑÐ â êîíöå 1920-õ–1930-å ãã. // Ýêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ èñòîðèÿ: Åæåãîäíèê. 2007. Ì.: ÐÎÑÑÏÝÍ, 2008. Ñ. 441–485. 7. Ìîçîõèí Î.Á. Ïðîòèâîáîðñòâî. Ñïåöñëóæáû ÑÑÑÐ è ßïîíèè (1918–1945). Ì.: ÎÎÎ «Ðîäèíà-ìåäèà», 2012. 480 ñ. 8. Ìóõèí Ì.È. Ýâîëþöèÿ ñèñòåìû óïðàâëåíèÿ ñîâåòñêîé îáîðîííîé ïðîìûøëåííîñòüþ â 1921–1941 ãîäàõ è ñìåíà ïðèîðèòåòîâ îáîðîíêè // Îòå÷åñòâåííàÿ èñòîðèÿ. 2000. ¹ 3. Ñ. 3–15; 9. Ìóõèí Ì.È. Ðåôîðìû óïðàâëåíèÿ âîåííîé ïðîìûøëåííîñòüþ ÑÑÑÐ è òåìïû ðîñòà ïðîèçâîäñòâà â 1936–1841 ãã. // Ýêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ èñòîðèÿ: Åæåãîäíèê. 2004. Ì.: ÐÎÑÑÏÝÍ, 2004. Ñ. 141–159. 10. Ñàìóýëüñîí Ë. Òàíêîãðàä: ñåêðåòû ðóññêîãî òûëà, 1917–1953 / ïåðåâ. ñ øâåä. Í.Â. Äîëãîâîé. Ì.: ÐÎÑÑÏÝÍ; Ôîíä «Ïðåçèäåíòñêèé öåíòð Á.Í. Åëüöèíà», 2010. 375 ñ. 11. Ñèìîíîâ Í.Ñ. Âîåííî-ïðîìûøëåííûé êîìïëåêñ ÑÑÑÐ 1920–1950-å ãã.: òåìïû ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðîñòà, ñòðóêòóðà, îðãàíèçàöèÿ ïðîèçâîäñòâà è óïðàâëåíèå. Ì., 1996. 336 ñ. 12. 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Part 2 (1933–1937). M., OOO «Izdatel’stvo TERRA», 2011, 944 p. [in Russian]. 15. Stepanov A.S. Military plans and defense industry of the USSR on the eve and at the beginning of the Second World War: British factor. Otechestvennaia istoriia [Russian history], 2006, no. 3, pp. 33–40 [in Russian]. 16. Tarama Kyosuke. Soviet mobilization policy on the Far East in the early 1930-ies. Ural i Sibir’ v stalinskoi politike (sbornik statei) [The Urals and Siberia during Stalin’s policy: collection of articles]. Novosibirsk, 2002. P. 98–125 [in Russian]. 17. Hunter H., Szyrmer J. Faulty Foundations: Soviet Economic Policies, 1928–1940. Princeton, N.J, Princeton University Press, 1992, Chaps. 13–14. Ñîâðåìåííàÿ ðîññèéñêàÿ è çàðóáåæíàÿ èñòîðèîãðàôèÿ î ïîäãîòîâêå ñîâåòñêîé ýêîíîìèêè ê Âåëèêîé Îòå÷åñòâåííîé âîéíå 133 M.V. Kondrashin* MODERN RUSSIAN AND FOREIGN HISTORIOGRAPHY IN THE PREPARATION OF SOVIET ECONOMY TO THE GREAT PATRIOTIC WAR The article analyzes the results of a study of the problem of preparing the economy of the USSR to the Great Patriotic War of modern Russian and foreign historians (the USA, England, Japan). In the spotlight are their publications that covers the most important and controversial aspects of the problem: the results of industrialization from the perspective of readiness of the USSR to war, alternative approaches to the Stalinist version of the forced industrialization etc. On the basis of this analysis, it is concluded that the relevance of the problem, the need for further examination of both Russian and foreign scientists. Key words: history of the Soviet economy, Great Patriotic war, industrialization, military industrial complex, alternative history, Russian and foreign historiography. Còàòüÿ ïîñòóïèëà 26/II/2015. The article received 26/II/2015. * Kondrashin Maxim Viktorovich (kondrashin.mv@gmail.com), Department of Russian History, Local History and Methods of Teaching History, Penza State University, 40, Krasnaya Street, Penza, 440026, Russian Federation.
