методы оценки эффективности валютообменных операций и их

advertisement
23
F?LH>UHP?GDBWNN?DLB<GHKLB
<:EXLHH;F?GGUOHI?J:PBCBBO<EBYGB?
G:IJHP?KKMIJ:<E?GBY
DL=Zebfh\gZqZevgbdmijZ\e_gby
:D;;Zrijhf[Zgd
IjbjZkq_l_wnn_dlb\ghklb\Zexlhh[f_gguohi_jZpbc^hoh^u
jZkoh^ufh]mlhij_^_eylvky^\mfykihkh[Zfb
1) dZd^hoh^jZkoh^iheh`bl_evgZybebhljbpZl_evgZyj_Zeb
ah\ZggZy dmjkh\Zy jZagbpZ ihemqZ_fuc ijb ihdmid_ beb ijh^Z`_
bghkljZgghc\ZexluHl^_evghkqblZxlky^hoh^ubjZkoh^u-g_j_Z
ebah\Zggu_ dmjkh\u_ jZagbpu \hagbdZxsb_ ijb i_j_hp_gd_ ijb
baf_g_gbbhnbpbZevgh]hdmjkZP;Zdlb\h\biZkkb\h\\ujZ`_gguo
\ bg\Zexl_ Z ijb bo g_jZ\_gkl\_ hldjulhc \Zexlghc ihabpbb –
blh]h\u_^hoh^ubebjZkoh^u
2) bkoh^ybaaZdjuluok^_ehddmiebbijh^Z`bbghkljZgghc\Z
exlu Ijb wlhf ^ey jZkq_lZ ijb ijh^Z`_ \Zexlu ijb jZkq_l_ Z[kh
exlgh]h^hoh^Zmkeh\ghkqblZ_lkyijh^Zgghc\ZexlZdhlhjZyijbh[
j_lZeZkv \ [he__ jZggb_ kjhdb ZgZeh]bqghf_lh^mFIFO\[mo]Zel_
jbb;he__ih^jh[ghjZkkfhlj_gh\>@
JZkkfhljbf i_j\uc \ZjbZgl Kh]eZkgh iheh`_gbx H ihjy^d_
\_^_gby[mo]Zel_jkdh]hmq_lZ\Zexlguohi_jZpbc\dj_^blguohj]Z
gbaZpbyo‹hl]Ijbihdmid_\Zexlugb`_hnbpb
Zevgh]hdmjkZ;ZgdZJhkkbbbebijbijh^Z`_\ur_wlh]hdmjkZ[Zgd
ihemqZ_l ^hoh^ \ \b^_ j_Zebah\Zgghc dmjkh\hc jZagbpu f_`^mdmj
khf;ZgdZJhkkbbbdmjkhfihdmidbijh^Z`bIjbihdmid_\Zexlu
\ur_hnbpbZevgh]hdmjkZ;ZgdZJhkkbbbebijbijh^Z`_gb`_wlh]h
dmjkZ[Zgdg_k_ljZkoh^u\\b^_dmjkh\hcjZagbpu
Kh]eZkghiheh`_gbxHihjy^d_\_^_gby[mo]Zel_jkdh]hmq_lZ
k^_ehdihdmidb-ijh^Z`bbghkljZgghc\Zexlu^jZ]hp_gguof_lZe
eh\bp_gguo[mfZ]\dj_^blguohj]ZgbaZpbyo‹hl]
«g_j_Zebah\Zggu_dmjkh\u_jZagbpu–wlhdmjkh\u_jZagbpu\ha
gbdZxsb_ijbi_j_hp_gd_lj_[h\Zgbcbh[yaZl_evkl\\bghkljZgghc
\Zexl_ ^jZ]hp_gguo f_lZeeZo b p_gguo [mfZ]Zo bf_xsbo jughq
gmxdhlbjh\dm
LZdbfh[jZahfijbi_j\hf\ZjbZgl_jZkq_lZZ[khexlgZykmffZ
^hoh^h\jZkoh^h\hij_^_ey_lkydZdkmffZj_Zebah\Zgghcdmjkh\hc
jZagbpu ih \k_f k^_edZf ih \k_f \ZexlZf aZ jZkkfZljb\Z_fuc i_
jbh^ H^gZdh ^ey ihemq_gby iheghc dZjlbgu g_h[oh^bfh djhf_
j_Zebah\Zgghc dmjkh\hc jZagbpu h[yaZl_evgh hl^_evgh mq_klv ^h
I_qZlZ_lkyihfZl_jbZeZfWdhghfbq_kdh]h\_klgbdZM=GLM
24
oh^ujZkoh^uhlbaf_g_gbcdmjkh\\Zexlijbi_j_kq_l_Zdlb\h\b
iZkkb\h\ihdZ`^hcba\ZexlaZjZkkfZljb\Z_fuci_jbh^\\b^_g_
j_Zebah\Zgghcdmjkh\hcjZagbpu<Zexlhh[f_ggu_hi_jZpbb\ebyxl
gZ^Zggu_^hoh^ujZkoh^u\kbemgZebqbygZebqghc\Zexlu\h[
f_gguoimgdlZob\ZexlguodZkkZo[ZgdZihkhklhygbxgZdhg_p^gy
<ke_^kl\b_ wlh]h ijb dmjkh\hf i_j_kq_l_ \hafh`gu ^hoh^u iheh
`bl_evgZydmjkh\ZyjZagbpZijbjhkl_dmjkZbghkljZgghc\Zexlub
jZkoh^u hljbpZl_evgZy g_j_Zebah\ZggZy dmjkh\Zy jZagbpZ \ ijh
lb\ghfkemqZ_
JZkkfhljbfgZijbf_j_
LZ[ebpZ–Ijbf_jjZkq_lZ
Hi_jZpbb
GZqZehi_jbh^Z
>heeZj
KR:
FZjdb
NJ=
•
•
:dl
IZk
Iha
100
100
50
50
Dhg_pi_jbh^Z
0
Ih
Ijh
dmidZ ^Z`Z
30
10
120
100 +20
0
15
60
50
5
:dl IZk Iha
+10
>ebggZyihabpby\mdZaZgghc\Zexl_
(-DhjhldZyihabpby\mdZaZgghc\Zexl_
<ijb\_^_gghfmkeh\ghfijbf_j_gZgZqZehi_jbh^ZgZebqghc
\Zexlu\dZkkZo[ZgdZg_[uehb\Zexlgu_iZkkb\u\dZ`^hcba\Z
exl[uebjZ\guZdlb\Zflh_klvfubf_ebaZdjulu_\Zexlgu_ih
abpbb<l_q_gb_jZkkfZljb\Z_fh]hi_jbh^ZijhbahrebihdmidZ
bijh^Z`Z^heeZjh\KR:jhklZdlb\h\-gZebqghklb\dZkk_gZ
^heeZjh\ZlZd`_ihdmidZbijh^Z`ZfZjhdNJ=jhklZdlb\h\\
fZjdZoNJ=gZ_^bgbpIjbwlhfmqblu\ZyqlhiZkkb\u\\Zexl_
hklZebkvg_baf_ggufbfuihemqbeb\f_klhaZdjulhc\Zexlghcih
abpbbdhlhjZy[ueZgZgZqZehi_jbh^Z^ebggmxhldjulmx\Zexlgmx
ihabpbxb\^heeZjZob\fZjdZoNJ=Ijbqbghcwlh]hklZehm\_eb
q_gb_ hklZldh\ \Zexlu \ \Zexlghc dZkk_ h[f_gghf imgdl_ – 20
^heeZjh\KR:bfZjhdNJ=
JZkkfhlj_ggZy kljmdlmjZ [ZeZgkZ ijb hq_j_^ghf ih\ur_gbb
dmjkZ^heeZjZbkgb`_gbbdmjkZfZjdbNJ=djm[exijb\_^_ldij_
\ur_gbx^hoh^h\gZ^jZkoh^Zfbqbkluc^hoh^ijbdmjkh\hfi_j_
I_qZlZ_lkyihfZl_jbZeZfWdhghfbq_kdh]h\_klgbdZM=GLM
25
kq_l_ \ ^heeZjZo KR: b qbkluc jZkoh^ ij_\ur_gb_ jZkoh^h\ gZ^
^hoh^ZfbihfZjd_NJ=
<ha\jZsZykv d kjZ\g_gbx kihkh[h\ bkoh^y ba \ur_ijb\_^_g
gh]h hlf_lbf jZaebqby ijb ijh\_^_gbb dhfie_dkgh]h ZgZebaZ \Z
exlguohi_jZpbc
Ihkihkh[m
Z ^hoh^u m[uldb hl ihdmidb-ijh^Z`b bghkljZgghc \Zexlu
jZkkqblu\Zxlky dZd jZagbpZ f_`^m nZdlbq_kdbf dmjkhf ijh^Z`b
beb ihdmidb b hnbpbZevgh]h dmjkZ P_gljZevgh]h [ZgdZ JN mklZ
gh\e_ggh]hgZjZkkfZljb\Z_fmx^Zlm>ZggZy\_ebqbgZij_^klZ\ey_l
kh[hcj_Zebah\Zggmxdmjkh\mxjZagbpmbmqblu\Z_lkyi_j\hgZqZev
gh gZ [ZeZgkh\uo kq_lZo ^hoh^ – iheh`bl_evgu_ jZagbpu b
jZkoh^–hljbpZl_evgu_jZagbpukihke_^mxsbfi_j_ghkhf
gZkq_l\aZ\bkbfhklbhlihemq_ggh]hj_amevlZlZ
[ ^hoh^um[uldbihemqZ_fu_\ke_^kl\b_gZebqbyhldjulhc
\Zexlghcihabpbb\jZkkfZljb\Z_fhfkemqZ_–ijbgZebqbb\Zdlb\_
^hihegbl_evghcgZebqghklb\bghkljZgghc\Zexl_\dZkkZo[ZgdZ
kqblZxlkyhl^_evgh
Ihkihkh[m
Z ^hoh^u m[uldb hl ihdmidb-ijh^Z`b bghkljZgghc \Zexlu
jZkkqblu\Zxlkyihf_lh^bd_ijb\_^_gghc\klZlv_>@
[ ^hoh^u m[uldb ihemqZ_fu_ \ke_^kl\b_ gZebqby hldjulhc
\ZexlghcihabpbbjZkkqblu\Zxlkybkoh^ybakmffuZdlb\h\mf_gv
r_gghcgZkmffmgZebqghcbg\Zexlu\dZkkZo[ZgdZbkihevam_fuo
\\Zexlhh[f_gguohi_jZpbyo\jZkkfZljb\Z_fhfi_jbh^_
KZfdhfie_dkgucih^oh^ZgZebaZ\Zexlguohi_jZpbc\jZfdZo
jZkkfZljb\Z_fhcklZlvbkhklhbl\ihemq_gbbZgZeblbq_kdhcbgnhj
fZpbbiha\heyxs_ckm^blvhj_amevlZl_hl^\mogZijZ\e_gbc
1) \Zexlhh[f_ggu_hi_jZpbb
2) hldjulZy\ZexlgZyihabpby
Ijb wlhf \k_]^Z g_h[oh^bfh mqblu\Zlv qlh ijbqbghc l_kgh]h
khq_lZgbywlbo^\mogZijZ\e_gbcy\ey_lkylhqlh\Zexlgu_Zdlb\u
bkihevam_fu_ijbijh\_^_gbb\Zexlhh[f_gguohi_jZpbcmqZkl\mxl
\nhjfbjh\Zgbb\Zexlghcihabpbbbkhhl\_lkl\_ggh\ebyxlgZj_
amevlZlui_j_hp_gdbb^Ze__gZg_j_Zebah\Zggmxdmjkh\mxjZagbpm
Ij_^iheZ]Z_lkyqlhf_g_^`f_gl[ZgdZij_^klZ\ey_ljZaebqbyb
_^bgkl\h^ZgguogZijZ\e_gbcbajyq_ijbgbfZ_lj_r_gbydhlhju_
\_^mldg_h[oh^bfhfmj_amevlZlm
Bkoh^y ba \ur_kdZaZggh]h g_h[oh^bfh jZaebqZlv kihkh[u
mijZ\e_gby\Zexlhh[f_ggufbhi_jZpbyfb^\mo\b^h\
I_qZlZ_lkyihfZl_jbZeZfWdhghfbq_kdh]h\_klgbdZM=GLM
26
1) mijZ\e_gb_j_Zebah\Zggufbdmjkh\ufbjZagbpZfbIjbwlhf
\ZexlgZy ihabpby dhgljhebjm_lky \ iheghf h[t_f_ lZd dZd \Zexl
gu_^_g_`gu_Zdlb\ugZoh^ysb_ky\dZkk_iheghklvxmqZkl\mxl\
jZkq_l_ \Zexlghc ihabpbb b khhl\_lkl\_ggh ijb jZkq_l_ g_j_Zebah
\Zgghcdmjkh\hcjZagbpu
2) mijZ\e_gb_ \ jZfdZo ijh\_^_gguo aZdjuluo k^_ehd \ pbde_
ihdmidZ-ijh^Z`Zbg\Zexlubkoh^ybanZdlbq_kdbodmjkh\Ijbwlhf
\Zexlgmx ihabpbx g_h[oh^bfh dhjj_dlbjh\Zlv mf_gvrZlv gZ \_
ebqbgmZdlb\h\-gZebqghklb–bghkljZgghc\ZexlugZoh^ys_cky\
dZkkZo[ZgdZLZdbfh[jZahfmijZ\e_gb_\Zexlghcihabpb_ck\h^bl
kydmijZ\e_gbxmk_q_gghcihabpb_c
LZdbf h[jZahf ijhbkoh^bl ih-jZaghfm kZf oh^ jZkkm`^_gbc
f_g_^`_jh\ijbbkihevah\ZgbbgZijZdlbd_i_j\h]hbeb\lhjh]hkih
kh[Z qlh khhl\_lkl\_ggh fh`_l g_h^bgZdh\h kdZaZlvky gZ dhg_qghf
j_amevlZl_<^_ckl\bl_evghklbj_]mebjm_lkyh^bgblhl`_ijhp_kk
ihwlhfmg_h[oh^bfhq_ldhhl^Z\Zlvk_[_hlq_lhq_fb^_lj_qv\lhf
bebbghfkemqZ_qlh[ug_^himklblvhrb[hddhlhju_fh]mlijb\_k
lbdm[uldZf
GZijbf_jijbZgZeba_wnn_dlb\ghklbihi_j\hfmkihkh[mZ[
khexlguc ^hoh^ hij_^_ey_lky dZd jZagbpZ f_`^m p_ghc ihdmi
dbijh^Z`bbhnbpbZevgufdmjkhfH^gZdh\kemqZ_j_adbodhe_[Z
gbc\hafh`gZke_^mxsZykblmZpby<ZexlZdZdh[uqghj_Zebam_lky
beb ijbh[j_lZ_lky kh agZqbl_evghc iheh`bl_evghc dmjkh\hc jZa
gbp_cihhlghr_gbxddmjkmP;mklZgh\e_gghfmgZl_dmsbc^_gv
< wlh `_ \j_fy ijhbkoh^yl kh[ulby dhlhju_ \ ^Zevg_cr_f h[yaZ
l_evghih\ebyxlgZdmjk\klhjhgmmom^r_gbyklhqdbaj_gby[ZgdZ
H[t_fuk^_ehd\hajZklZxllZddZdklhjhgZ-dhgljZ]_glgZhkgh\Zgbb
bf_xs_ckybgnhjfZpbbkhk\h_cklhjhguiulZ_lkykgylvijbkmlkl
\mxsb_\Zexlgu_jbkdb<wlhfkemqZ_ihl_jbhljZaylkyijbdmjkh
\hfi_j_kq_l_m`_mom^r_gghcihke_ijh\_^_gby\ur_mdZaZgguo
hi_jZpbckljmdlmjuZdlb\h\biZkkb\h\gZfhf_glaZdjulby[ZeZgkZ
Ms_j[gZghkbfuc[Zgdmmkm]m[ey_lkyh[yaZl_evgufj_adbfm\_eb
q_gb_f h[t_fh\ h^ghgZijZ\e_gguo \Zexlhh[f_gguo hi_jZpbc <
wlhf kemqZ_ ^Z`_ k mq_lhf aZeh`_gguo ebfblZfb h]jZgbq_gbc gZ
dZ`^mxhl^_evgmxlhqdmdZjlbgZ\p_ehfkdeZ^u\Z_lkydjZcg_g_]Z
lb\ghbf_ggh\kbemh^ghgZijZ\e_gghklbb[hevrh]hh[t_fZbhkh
[_gghijb[hevrhfdhebq_kl\_kZfbolhq_dh[f_gZ\Zexlu?^bgkl
\_gguf kihkh[hf ij_^hl\jZs_gby ihl_jv \ lZdhf kemqZ_ y\ey_lky
hi_jZlb\gZy ijb ihemq_gbb khhl\_lkl\mxs_c bgnhjfZpbb dhjj_d
lbjh\dZ mkeh\bc ^_yl_evghklb h[f_gguo imgdlh\ ijbhklZgh\e_gb_
I_qZlZ_lkyihfZl_jbZeZfWdhghfbq_kdh]h\_klgbdZM=GLM
27
mklZgh\e_gb_ aZ\ur_gguo beb aZgb`_gguo dmjkh\ < kbem wlh]h
gZijbf_j g_h[oh^bfh jZkp_gb\Zlv g_f_^e_ggu_ ^_ckl\by ij_^ijb
gylu_ [ZgdZfb ihke_ kh[ulbc k_gly[jy ] dZd ]jZfhlgh_
mijZ\e_gb_ iZkkb\gh_ beb Zdlb\gh_ \Zexlgufb jbkdZfb Z g_ \Z
exlgufbki_dmeypbyfbhl^_evguo[Zgdh\
Kibkhdbkihevah\Zgguobklhqgbdh\
1) =Zebfh\ DL Wnn_dlb\ghklv \Zexlhh[f_gguo hi_jZpbc
K[hjgbd gZmqguo ljm^h\ Kh\j_f_ggu_ ijh[e_fu wdhghfbdb
M=GLM]
Wdhghfbq_kdbc \_klgbd M=GLM ih^ j_^ ^wg Jh^bhgh\hc
EGK[ljm^h\M=GLM–k3-27.
I_qZlZ_lkyihfZl_jbZeZfWdhghfbq_kdh]h\_klgbdZM=GLM
Download