Семенов В.А. Колебания современного климата, вызванные

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OSCILLATIONS OF PRESENT-DAY CLIMATE ASSOCIATED WITH
FEEDBACKS IN ATMOSPHERE – ARCTIC ICE –OCEAN SYSTEM
V.A. Semenov 1,2)
1)
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmopsheric Physics, RAS,
3 Pyzhevsky, 119017, Moscow, Russia,
2) Institute
of Geography, RAS,
29 Staromonetny, 119017, Moscow, Russia, [email protected]
Summary. The impact of internal climate variability in the North Atlantic
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and the Arctic on global climate is studied using simulations with atmospheric
general circulation model coupled with mixed layer ocean model forced by
anomalous heat fluxes on the ocean-atmosphere interface. The results show that
internal long-term climate variability in the North Atlantic and Atlantic Sector
of the Arctic may have contributed a substantial part (about a half) to the
observed surface air temperature warming in the Northern Hemisphere since
1980s. An important role in this is played by the anomalous heat fluxes in the
Arctic that may be enhanced by positive feedback between oceanic heat inflow
and sea ice area in the Barents Sea. Taking into account the fact that modern climate models (in ensemble average) almost perfectly reproduce the observed
global temperature changes during the last 30 years of the 20th century as a
response to the anthropogenic forcing, the results imply a possibility of substantial overestimation of the models’ sensitivity to the increase of greenhouse gas
concentration in the atmosphere.
Keywords. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, global climate models, natural
variability.
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