статью Изменения в верхней атмосфере и ионосфере

550.385
(
)
.
(
)
.
.
:
,
,
1.
.
[Lastovicka et al., 2008]
,
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,
,
.
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
(
.
),
,
,
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,
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(
,
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,
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,
F
,
,
, 8(499)1814511,
adanilov99@mail.ru
1
,
,
.
,
,
,
.
(
,
F2,
)
,
,
.
.
,
,
90-
.
2.
«
»
[Roble and
Dickinson, 1989; Rishbeth and Roble, 1989],
,
.
(
–
2)
(
2
),
(
120
,
,
[CO2]
)
,
.
.
4
80-90
.
.
(cooling and
contraction)
[Lastovicka et al., 2008].
«
.
,
»
.
[
, 1998]
2
.
,
.
al., 1996;
, 1996]
1994;
,
[Golitsyn et
)
.
,
) [Kokin and Lysenko,
(
., 1990],
,
50
,
.
[
, 1993]
,
(
foE).
–
,
90.
,
,
.
«
»,
.
,
(
22-
–
) 11,
,
.
11
(
,
).
.
,
20
(
.
)
.
,
.
82
[Gadsden, 1997, 1998]
.
31
,
.
90.
[Kirkwood
,
and Stebel, 2003]
.
[Lubken, 2000]
.
,
3
,
.
PMC
,
),
NLC (
,
),
,
.
PMC
[DeLand et al., 2007].
,
NLC.
[Kirkwood et al., 2008]
.
NLC
,
PMC
[Lastovicka, 2009]
NLC
PMC
.
[Lastoviska et al., 2008],
,
.
3.
[Lastovicka et al., 2008],
:
-
;
–
, foE;
D;
, hmE;
F1;
.
.1
[Lastovicka et al.,
2008].
.
.
(
,
–
–
,
),
.
[Beig, 2002].
,
.
[Beig et al., 2003]
4
,
,
,
[Beig,
2002],
.
(
)
2-3
.
5-10
.
,
.
,
87
) [Offermann et al., 2004]
.
.1
[Lastovicka et al., 2008].
,
[Roble and Dickinson, 1989],
10-15
.
2
(
30%
(1985 .)),
,
,
.
(
D)
[Lastovicka, 2001; Lastovocka and Bremer, 2004].
5
.
(
[Taubenheim et al., 1990])
[e]
[Danilov, 2000]
D.
[Friedrich and Torkar, 2001]
.
,
,
70-85
D
.
.
[e]
D
.
,
(N2
2).
,
[e]
,
.
[1993]
.
foE
.
,
[Bremer, 2001]
[Bremer, 2001]
.
. 2.
71
fo
,
fo ,
0.013
[Bremer, 2001]
F1, foF1.
0.029
.
, hmE,
(
F1
(
,
),
0.0019
).
foE
.
,
[1997]
,
– [NO+]/[O2+].
,
,
,
,
[e] [
, 1997].
6
[Mikhailov, 2006a],
,
[NO ]/[O2+],
foE.
foF2
+
[
, 1997],
[Lastovicka et al., 2008; Bremer, 2001].
.2
foE, foF1
hmE c
[Bremer, 2008].
, [NO],
NO
D.
[Beig, 2000]
.
,
.
NO
100-200
(
,
)
D,
.
,
[NO]
(
).
.
7
90-100
2
,
.
«
»
,
F2 (
[O]
,
,
.
[Danilov, 2005],
.
)
.
foF2
F2 ( . [Lastovicka et al., 2008]).
,
[Lastovicka, 2009].
foF1,
.
,
[O]/[N2],
.
. 3
- Keating et al. [2000], 360 ;
- Emmert et al. [2004],
530 ;
- Markos et al., [2005], 390 )
– Roble and Dickinson [1989], 400 ;
– Rishbeth
abd Roble [1992], 400
;
– Akmaev et al. [2006], 200
;
– Qian et al. [2009], 400 )
[Lastovicka, 2009].
8
,
,
.
[Keeting et al, 2000;
Markos et al., 2005; Emmert et al., 2004].
. 3,
[Lastovicka et al., 2008].
[Roble and Dickinson,
1989; Rishbeth and Roble, 1989; Akmaev et al., 2006].
. 3
.
,
,
(
).
)
(
[Emmert et al.,
,
2004]
.
(F(10.7) ~ 100-220)
2-3%
,
7%
(F(10.7) ~ 70).
,
,
,
.
,
.
,
. 3
,
2
(
1985 .),
30%.
,
,
.
,
,
,
. [Lastovicka et al., 2008]
.
,
4
,
5.
F2
,
.
4.
F2
,
,
,
9
,
–
foF2
[Rishbeth and Roble,
hmF2
F2.
1992; Rushbeth, 1990]
,
foF2,
F2
«
NmF2
»
.
hmF2.
foF2
hmF2,
.
,
.
F2
(
–
).
,
,
(upwelling
downwelling),
foF2
hmF2 (
,
[Danilov,
2001; Qian et al., 2009]).
F2
(
.
),
NCAR TIE-GSM [Qian et al., 2009]
F2
F
10%
.
.
,
,
,
2
– 2100 .).
( ,
[Ulich and Turunen, 1997;
Marin et al., 2001; Upadhyay and Mahajan, 1998])
F2
.
1998 . [Bremer, 1998]
31
.
,
foF2,
hmF2
30
.
,
F2
,
[Mikhailov, 2002; Mikhailov and de
la Morena, 2003; Mikhailov, 2006b],
10
«
»
,
.
,
[
, 2002; Danilov
21
foF2,
-0.012
0.004
.
,
[Danilov, 2006]
F2,
,
300
2002].
[Danilov, 2003]
,
17
hmF2,
0.0011
,
,
= 0.0005.
hmF2
0.33
.
[Lastovicka et
al., 2006],
foF2
(
, 1977-1997
.).
(
[49]).
foF2,
.
0.1
,
«
foF2,
2002],
»
[
, 2002; Danilov
,
-0.08
,
.
foF2,
–
[Yue et al., 2006].
14
,
12
12
-
.
foF2
,
-0.05
[Lastovicka et al., 2006].
[
, 2007; Danilov, 2008a, b;
, 2008 , ; 2009],
,
foF2
–
(
F2
,
)
foF2
,
.
14:00 LT
02:00 LT,
2007; Danilov, 2008a].
[
(
+ 2
.
,
)
) –
.
[
43
, 2007; Danilov, 2008a],
foF2(02)/foF2(14)
.
,
,
,
,
,
11
-
1980 .,
foF2(02)/foF2(14)
)
».
«
. 4.
)
)
fo(02)/ fo(14)
fo(02)/ fo(14)
1958-1997
1958-1998
0.04
0.04
0.00
0.00
-0.04
-0.04
R2 =0.53
Ap < 30
-0.08
1960
1970
1980
1990
. 4
Ap < 30
1960
2000
1970
R2 =0.60
1980
1990
2000
foF2(02)/foF2(14)
( )
( )
[
,
2010 ].
,
,
1980
,
.
2
.
R
,
.
foF2(02)/foF2(14)
D.
(E)
(W).
,
–
.
[Danilov, 2008a]
. 5.
),
,
foF2(02)/foF2(14)
–
12
.
. 5.
foF2(02)/foF2(14)
[Danilov, 2008a].
( .
, 2008 , 2009; 2010; Danilov, 2009, 2011]),
,
F2
.
,
F2
.
. [Lastovicka et al., 2008;
,
)
Lastovicka, 2009]
.
( .,
1997; Jacobi, 2005]).
,
, [Merzlyakov et al., 2009; Bremer et al.,
,
,
,
,
.
F2
.
, 2010 ; Danilov, 2010].
13
,
(02:00
LT)
hmF2
(14:00 LT)
foF2, R(foF2),
F(10.7),
foF2(
+ 2)/foF2(14).
F2
hmF2,
,
.
,
2008 ]
[Danilov, 2008a, b;
«
,
2-3
)/foF2(
foF2(
)
)
R(foF2)
).
(
(90-
,
» (1980 .
90-
,
50).
hmF2
60-
)
[
.
hmF2
(
, 2009; Danilov, 2009]
60–
90-
,
,
S(hmF2).
hmF2
,
.
,
,
hmF2
S(hmF2),
.
LT
S(hmF2),
,
hmF2
.
[
-
, 2009; Danilov, 2009]
hmF2
F(10.7).
(
)
hmF2
S(hmF2).
,
,
S(hmF2)
.
.6
[
, 2009].
1957-1999
hmF2,
1979
1980-1999
..
,
foF2(
)/foF2(
(
14
)
)
.,
: 1957-
,
,
R(foF2)
1980 .
)
)
440
480
440
1980-1999
400
hmF2,
hmF2,
1980-1999
400
360
360
1957-1979
1957-1979
320
320
80
120
160
F(10.7)
200
240
80
. 6.
120
160
F(10.7)
[
1957-1979 .,
– 1980-1999
02:00 LT
.
,
hmF2
( )
, 2010 ].
. 6
hmF2
F(10.7)
,
–
.
.
S(hmF2),
.6
,
1957-1979
,
S(hmF2)
:
,
, 2009; Danilov, 2009],
[
:
S(hmF2)
1980 .
,
[
Danilov, 2009]
,
S(hmF2),
.
( .
)/foF2(
.
.
1980 .
,
foF2(
1980-1999
hmF2
18
1990-
,
,
.
1950-
240
hmF2
( )
11
200
)
,
R(foF2)
)
15
, 2009;
hmF2,
.
.
,
),
(
,
).
,
(
al., 2008; Lastovicka, 2009]).
,
hmF2
90-
,
hmF2
50- -90(
1997; Marin et al., 2001; Bremer, 1998]).
,
foF2
. [Lastovicka et
,
, [Ulich and Turunen,
hmF2
.
.
–
F2, hmF2,
–
F2 ( ,
,
foF2)
.
,
,
,
(
[e]
,
foF2.
[
.
.
)
2010 ]
foF2
,
LT = 14:00
),
)).
(
) + 2 )
[Rishbeth, 1998]
.
.
,
foF2
,
.
(
2010 ].
)+2 ).
)+1 ) [
,
,
foF2(
foF2(
foF2(14).
16
+ 2)
)/foF2(
),
foF2( +2)/foF2(14)
,
+2)/foF2(14)
– 1958 .)
foF2(
F(10.7).
(
(
1979 .
),
foF2(
)/foF2(
.
,
1980 .
)
),
foF2( +2)/foF2(14).
F(10.7)
foF2(
,
.
+ 2)/foF2(14)
,
,
,
.
S
foF2(
F(10.7),
(1958-1968, 1959-1969
.
. .),
(1963, 1964 .
2
R ( .
),
+ 2)/foF2(14)
11.).
,
foF2(
«
+ 2)/foF2(14),
».
)
)
0.06
0.06
1958-1995
1958-1995
0.05
0.04
0.04
S
S
R 2 =0.92
R2 =0.96
0.03
0.02
0.02
0
0.01
1960
1970
1980
. 7.
0.00
1960
1990
0
1970
1980
1990
S
( )
-
( )
[
, 2010 ].
S
. 7
.
,
[
2010 ].
,
».
(
17
«
»)
S
(
,
foF2(
-
S
).
»
»
«
+ 2)/foF2(14)
).
. 7,
F(10.7).
S
«
(
,
S
)
1980 .
(
1980 .
,
,
foF2( +2)/foF2(14) –
.
.
,
1980 . (
2-3 .)
–
.
,
[
, 2010 ]
S
»
S
,
,
»
foF2(
)/foF2(
)
F2, hmF2.
,
S
foF2,
+ 2)/foF2(14)
foF2(
,
.
[2010 ]
.
.
,
,
.
.
.
–
.
S
.
,
F2.
S(hmF2),
1.5-2
,
50-60,
90- .
1980 .
.
,
,
,
70-
.
. [Emmert et al., 2001]
WINDII.
.
,
[Portnyagin
80-
et
.
1972
hmF2
al.,
2006]
[Mikhailov, 2006b]
. (
40-60-
.
18
)
[Mikhailov, 2006b]
hmF2
[Bremer, 2006]
F1 E
1979 .
.
,
(
)
80-
.
,
1980
.
.
[
hmF2
, 2010 ]
)+2 ),
(
.
).
hmF2
(
,
.),
,
1958 .
.
90-
)
hmF2(
,
.
)
+2),
hmF2(
12
20
15
+2),
8
10
4
5
R2 =0.95
0
0
R 2=0.87
-5
1960
1970
1980
. 8
-4
1960
1990
hmF2(
( ,
)
2010 ].
+2)
( ,
1970
1980
1990
)
,
F2,
F(10.7)
.
hmF2(
hmF2(
.
+2)
,
hmF2(
11+2)
+2)
–
. 8.
,
F2,
,
19
».
(
k
1980 .)
. 1.
1.
k
R2
hmF2(
+ 2)
--------------------------------------------k
R2
k
R2
--------------------------------------------+0.8
0.70
+1.3
0.95
-1.0
0.56
-1.6
0.88
-0.6
0.94
-1.1
0.92
+0.7
0.98
+0.6
0.87
-0.7
0.85
-1.6
0.95
-0.7
0.88
-2.4
0.97
+2.3
0.89
+1.6
0.93
+1.3
0.97
+0.3
0.89
+0.5
0.84
+0.3
0.63
+0.3
0.66
-2.0
0.95
+0.9
0.87
+0.6
0.90
+0.5
0.52
-0.4
0.49
+1.1
0.83
+1.8
0.90
+0.4
0.55
-0.9
0.91
-1.6
0.74
-0.5
0.89
----------------------------------------------,
hmF2 (
, [Bremer, 1998]).
(
hmF2
,
,
,
!)
LT
.
(
),
–
,
.
.
,
. 8
. 1,
hmF2
hmF2(
».
+ 2)),
,
(
.
hmF2(
,
.
,
.
20
+ 2))
hmF2
,
.
,
hmF2(
+
2)
F2,
.
,
(
),
.
.
D
I
.
(
,
)
,
.
,
2)
hmF2(
»
«
+
.
»
hmF2(
D
,
I.
hmF2(
+ 2)
,
,
[Ulich and Turunen, 1997; Marin et al., 2001;
Bremer, 1998; Danilov, 2006]
hmF2.
,
,
+ 2)
[
hmF2(
hmF2,
[Danilov, 2006].
,
, 2010 ]
+ 2),
,
,
,
LT,
.
–
[Bremer, 1998]
. 2.
,
,
LT.
hmF2
,
2.
hmF2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Danilov
Bremer
k
[2006]
[1998]
--------------------------------------------+0.8
+0.64
+0.73
-1.0
+0.41
-0.7
+0.16
+2.3
+0.57
+0.84
+1.3
+0.52
+0.44
+0.5
+0.29
21
+0.9
+0.24
+0.14
+0.5
+0.35
-1.6
-0.24
-0.19
---------------------------------------------,
F2,
foF2 and hmF2
iwg
2000 .
CD
.
80-
–
90-
, 2011 ,
;
.
,
.
,
,
90-
,
,
2000, 2012]
.
[
,
.
,
hmF2.
,
,
.
,
hmF2
.
3000,
hmF2.
,
,
3000
3000
foF2.
iwg
,
iwg
, 2011 ]
[
foF2
hmF2
, ,
,
5
.
,
foF2 M3000
hmF2 foF2
1958(1957)
iwg
2005-2007
.
T
.
.
. 9,
+2) –
,
hmF2
.
11
.
,
2001-2002 .,
»
2005-2007 .
hmF2
,
«
»
.
22
hmF2
.
,
,
,
,
F2
,
,
.
),
(
(
),
)
hmF2,
(
1990-1995
))
(
.
1980
,
10
hmF2
(
))
1990-1995
.
.
2000-
.
,
,
,
hmF2
.
hmF2(
+2)
hmF2(
40
+2)
20
15
30
10
20
5
10
0
0
-5
1980
1990
1980
2000
. 9.
1990
2000
F2
.
foF2(
+ 2)/foF2(14)
[2010 ]
F2,
hmF2( +2)
,
.
foF2(
,
+ 2)
(
,
.
).
,
F2
,
23
NmF2, .
foF2.
[Rishbeth, 1998]
,
foF2(
+ 2)/foF2(14)
hmF2(
+ 2)
.
2010 ],
,
.
[
, 2011 ]
5foF2( +2) hmF2(
+ 2).
. 10,
,
foF2(
+ 2)
hmF2(
+ 2)
2
R
.
[
,
2.
R2 ,
. 3.
360
400
340
hmF2(ss+2),
hmF2(ss+2),
R2 = 0.79
360
320
320
300
R2 = 0.53
280
0
0
280
5
. 10.
)
6
foF2(ss+2),
7
hmF2(
(
260
8
+ 2)
)
foF2(
0
+ 2)
[
. 3.
R2
foF2(
+ 2) hmF2(
+ 2)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------0.51
0.58
0.32
0.82
0.52
0.58
0.78
0.66
0.79
0.79
-----------------------------24
2
4
6
foF2(ss+2),
8
10
(
2010 ].
-
foF2(
R2 ,
hmF2(
+2)
95%
. 3,
,
+ 2)
.
,
F,
,
foF2
,
,
F2.
foF2(
+ 2)/foF2(14)
hmF2(
.
,
,
.
. 10
foF2(
+ 2)
1990 .
,
. 10 (
,
+ 2)
hmF2(
+ 2)
(1958-1990 .)
)
,
1990 .
,
R2 = 0.53.
0.68.
. 10
.
1990 .
1990 . – 9.8
.
18
,
.
16
,
5.3
19
10.5
-
.
[
foF2(
,
1990
, 2011 ]
+ 2) hmF2(
,
.
. 10
,
,
+ 2)
,
,
,
[
2010 ],
foF2(
+ 2),
,
,
hmF2(
–
+ 2).
)
,
F2.
2011 ]
[
,
,
(
),
.
foF2(
+ 2)
, 2011 ]
.
foF2
.
25
11
,
iwg
[
[
, 2011 ].
, 2011 ]
,
(
,
)
.
,
,
,
iwg
.
. 11,
+ 2)
foF2(
[
, 2011 ]
iwg
,
(
.
R2)
foF2
( .
1990 .,
)
.
1990 .)
10
foF2
foF2
, 2011 ]
)
[
11.
(
.
[
foF2(
, 2011 ]
)
(
2)
+ 2)
.
foF2(
+
.
,
foF2(
),
(
+ 2)
,
(
foF2(
.
[
, 2011 ]).
0.0
+2),
0.0
R2 = 0.86
IWG
-0.1
R2 =0.90
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
R2 =0.94
IWG
-0.2
-0.4
R2 = 0.97
1988
.11.
1992
1996
2000
0
0
2004
-0.5
1988
foF2(
iwg
2011 ].
26
1992
1996
2000
2004
+2)
[
,
foF2(
+ 2)
,
foF2.
, 2011 ],
,
foF2(14)
,
foF2(
+ 2)
hmF2(
8
11.
.
,
1990 .
+ 2)
,
F2
.
,
,
F2
»
«
90,
.
F2.
,
+ 2) hmF2(
+ 2)
foF2(
,
(
90-
–
2000-
).
[
foF2(14)
1990 .
, 2011 ]
+ 2)
foF2(
,
(
)
«
»
F2
.
foF2
, 2011 ]
,
0.022
0.04-0.06
,
–
.
,
F2
90- – 2000-
,
[Lastovicka et al., 2006] (
,
.
)
1976-1996
.
.
5.
[Lastovicka et al., 2008]
,
.
F2
.
27
).
,
,
,
.
[Zhang et al., 2005]
F
.
1978-2007 .
,
. [Donaldson et al., 2010]
1966-1987
.
(
)
,
[Holt and Zhang, 2008]
30375
4.2 %
.
.
,
,
[Zhang and Holt, 2011].
,
1980 .
i
1968 .
3-4
(
4-5
).
2996 .,
),
,
i
1980 .
,
,
,
F2
«
» - 1980 .
[Zhang and Holt, 2011]
,
(
[Donaldson et al., 2010])
F2
1980 .
. 12,
,
Ti
.
,
F2
1980 .
,
F
6-8
.
,
[Zhang and Holt,
2011],
,
(2003-2006 .)
Ti
,
Ti
.
,
,
2000.
28
. 12.
[Donaldson et al., 2010].
i
1980-2006
.
[Zhang and Holt, 2011]
13.
. 13.
Ti
[Zhang and Holt, 2011].
29
. 14.
[Zhang and Holt, 2011].
[e]
and Holt, 2011],
[Zhang
,
300-450
250-300
,
,
F2,
,
.
[e]
[e] Te
.
F
F
Te.
. 14,
,
[Zhang and Holt, 2011].
,
.
. [Emmer et al., 2008]
5000
,
[Emmer et
al., 2004],
-7%
.
550
F(10.7) = 70 [Emmer et al., 2008].
30
-1%
F(10.7) = 160
. 15.
n
[Qian et al., 2011].
.
[Qian et al., 2011].
-
(TIE-GCM NCAR),
[Qian et al., 2011]
.
2
. 15,
,
,
[Qian et al., 2011].
,
,
,
.
,
200
50 .
,
2
,
NO.
,
,
,
.
CO2
,
TIE-GCM NCAR
.
2
[Qian et al., 2011].
hmF2
hmF2
,
NmF2
F2
,
.
.
[Rishbeth, 1998]
F2 «
»
31
,
.
(12:00 LT)
[Qian et al., 2011] 10-20
hmF2
.
.
,
,
,
[Lastovocka et al., 2008].
.
,
.
[Qian et al., 2011]
,
,
[Emmert et al.,
50
[Holt and
47
2008].
2,
Zhang, 2008]
.
6.
,
.
[Lastovicka et al., 2008; Lastovicka, 2009].
,
.
,
1990 . [Lastovicka et al., 2008; Jacobi et al., 2001,
2005;].
.
[Lastovicka and Krizan, 2006]
,
.
F2,
4.
(
hmF2
),
-
foF2
,
F2
(
.
).
.
.
,
32
,
,
.
[Lastovicka et al., 2008; Lastovicka,
2009].
,
,
.
F
[Mikhailov, 2002].
foE
[Mikhailov and de la Morena, 2003; Mikhailov, 2006a]
foF1[Mikhailov,
2008].
,
hmF2
1972 .,
[Mikhailov, 2006b].
–
1970 . [Mikhailov and de la
Morena, 2003].
[2005]
,
20,
,
,
,
–
.
[Bremer et al.,
2009]
,
,
.
[Lastoviska, 2009]
21.
7.
,
–
)
,
,
.
,
.
,
2008 .
,
,
.
2-3
(
) –
.
,
),
.
(
),
F2
1980 .
,
33
,
1980-1999
,
,
.
.
3-5
,
.
,
(
)
,
.
,
,
2,
.
-
.,
.
//
86-89. 1993.
-
.
. . 333. No. 1. P.
.,
F2,
//
.
. 42. No. 3. C. 350-359. 2002.
.
.
F2 //
-
. .
//
-
. .
. . 47. No. 6, C. 751-760. 2007.
foF2 hmF2
902000. . 51. N 3. C. 325–332. 2011 .
foF2
902000//
. . 51. No. 6. .
769-777. 2011 .
. .,
. .
foF2(
)/foF2(
):
. . 48. No. 2, C. 228-240. 2008 .
.,
.
//
. . 48. No. 6, C. 810-822. 2008 .
.,
.
//
. . 49. No. 1 , C.58-62. 2009.
.,
..
//
50. No 1. C. 61- 66. 2010 .
.,
.
34
//
foF2
hmF2
foF2
. .
F2
//
-
. . 50. No. 2. . 195-208. 2010 .
.
foF2 hmF2
, . 50. No. 6. . 825-832.
.,
.//
2010 .
-
.,
foF2
90-x
Spidr. . 52. No. C. 2012.
. .,
//
1997.
.,
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//
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. . 37. No. 4.
.,
.
//
.
.
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. 43-49.
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,
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